Texas Winter 2022-2023

[rwfromkansas]

Fort Worth is not blaring a single siren in the tornado warning. They blow them for penny size hail but not tornadoes apparently.

[EnnisTx]

Damage with injuries South of Decatur near FM 730

Also, 18 wheelers blown over on I20 near Brock Junction. In Parker County.

[Kennethb]

All of the posts today on tornados and winter reminds me of a unique occurrence back in January late 1970's. Now I know that this is not going to occur with today's weather. But I remember reading a story in the Baton Rouge newspaper about somewhere in Oklahoma that had a tornado and about an hour later it was snowing. For some reason that story and event has remained in my mind.

[cheezyWXguy]

TDS just north of river oaks in tarrant county

[Iceresistance]

All of the posts today on tornados and winter reminds me of a unique occurrence back in January late 1970's. Now I know that this is not going to occur with today's weather. But I remember reading a story in the Baton Rouge newspaper about somewhere in Oklahoma that had a tornado and about an hour later it was snowing. For some reason that story and event has remained in my mind.

The Great Blue Norther of 11/11/1911 had a F4 Tornado in Wisconsin, then a Blizzard just hours later!

[Texas Snowman]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
814 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

TXC439-131445-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0078.000000T0000Z-221213T1445Z/
Tarrant TX-
814 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CST FOR NORTHERN
TARRANT COUNTY...

At 814 AM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over River Oaks,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornado will be near...
Saginaw and Blue Mound around 825 AM CST.
Haltom City around 830 AM CST.
Watauga and Richland Hills around 835 AM CST.
Fort Worth, Arlington, Grand Prairie, Euless, Bedford, Hurst,
Colleyville, North Richland Hills and DFW Intl Airport around 845
AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake
Arlington, Dalworthington Gardens, Westover Hills and Lake Worth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter now! Get to an interior room on the lowest floor
of a sturdy building and avoid windows.

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 9703 3269 9704 3270 9744 3281 9745
3295 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1414Z 252DEG 24KT 3279 9739

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

[EnnisTx]

Fort Worth is not blaring a single siren in the tornado warning. They blow them for penny size hail but not tornadoes apparently.

That tornado was well North of you, but a new confirmed tornado warning with debris over Samson Park , see if that one gets them going.

[Iceresistance]

TDS just north of river oaks in tarrant county

Oh, that is bad! It's right over very heavily populated areas!

[EnnisTx]

TDS just north of river oaks in tarrant county

Oh, that is bad! It's right over very heavily populated areas!

Confirmed debris on video.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/cc_stormwatch/status/1602669692228964354

[Iceresistance]

The DFW tornado may have lifted, but I can't be too sure of it.

[EnnisTx]

The DFW tornado may have lifted, but I can't be too sure of it.

Still had debris a few minutes ago.

[cheezyWXguy]

The DFW tornado may have lifted, but I can't be too sure of it.

Still had debris a few minutes ago.

Looks like it’s lifted, no more fds as far as I can tell. Would keep an eye on that hook near North Richland Hills though

[Brent]

The signature has definitely weakened on radar

[rwfromkansas]

Fort Worth is not blaring a single siren in the tornado warning. They blow them for penny size hail but not tornadoes apparently.

That tornado was well North of you, but a new confirmed tornado warning with debris over Samson Park , see if that one gets them going.

I was in north Fort Worth and covered in the original warning.

Crickets on the sirens.

Now that the warning is south of us, they are NOW finally sounding them. Lol.

Oh, Fort Worth.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The pirate has passed.

RIP Mike Leach

[Iceresistance]

Fort Worth is not blaring a single siren in the tornado warning. They blow them for penny size hail but not tornadoes apparently.

That tornado was well North of you, but a new confirmed tornado warning with debris over Samson Park , see if that one gets them going.

I was in north Fort Worth and covered in the original warning.

Crickets on the sirens.

Now that the warning is south of us, they are NOW finally sounding them. Lol.

Oh, Fort Worth.

Maybe they should do what OKC did in 2016 to reduce false alarms by putting the new EWS into sections. If one of them is under the tornado warning, that section will sound the sirens, all others that are not in the warning should not sound yet or at all.

[Iceresistance]

The pirate has passed.

RIP Mike Leach

Huge shame he's gone

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

Strong storm system is progressing into the plains this morning with a cold front moving across TX.

Potentially significant arctic air intrusion into the US next week.

Today/Wednesday:
Warm and humid air mass over the region with gusty southerly flow this morning ahead of a cold front that will move across the area this afternoon and evening. Air mass will become increasingly unstable early this afternoon and as the front arrive into the area mid afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary. Some of the storms could become severe mainly east of I-45 where dynamics will be best. All severe modes will be possible (large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado). Front slows near the coast this evening and this will likely linger showers into the morning hours on Wednesday ahead of the 850mb front. Drier air mass then filters in on Wednesday and the warmth and humidity of recent weeks will be over.

Generally seasonal weather late week with lows in the 40’s and highs in the low 60’s.

Weekend:
Guidance solutions continue to struggle with the formation of a coastal trough/low over the NW Gulf late Friday into the weekend. The GFS/CMC keep this feature well offshore along with most of the rainfall, while the ECWMF is closer to the coast and spreads rainfall across the area. Will increase clouds from SW to NE starting Friday night and keep rain chances confined closer to the coast for Saturday with a nod toward the offshore coastal development. Temperatures will be cool through this period, but warm enough to keep everything liquid. Should the ECWMF end up being correct, the forecast for this weekend will need to raise rain chances.

Next Week:
Almost all of the focus will be with a potential major arctic air intrusion into the US starting early next week. Upper air pattern will result in a building Alaskan ridge which will help to dislodge extremely cold Siberian air (currently -55 to -75F) and send this air mass over the Arctic Ocean and in the general direction of NW Canada. As this air mass moves into NW Canada an impressive 1055-1070mb arctic surface high pressure dome forms and begins to drop southward toward the Montana border early next week. Extremely cold air is dislodged and begins to move southward with widespread -40 to -50 F into SW Canada and approaching the US border. Upper air pattern then supports this air mass being unleashed into the US early to mid next week. IF model solutions are correct and a 1060-1065mb high is located near the Montana border early next week, there will be little to stop the incredibly dense air mass from pouring southward down the plains.

Since we are still talking in the day 7-9 range for any impacts in the southern plains, will follow the ensemble mean of the GFS, CMC, and ECWMF which all show below to well below normal temperatures starting as early as the 22nd and lasting through the 26/27th. I strongly caution against individual model runs showing various winter storm events as there has been little consistency from run to run and between the different models.

The biggest questions at this point is how cold of an air mass builds into NW Canada this weekend, how much of this cold air comes as far south as TX, does this air mass modify any as it moves southward, will there be any winter precipitation next week. The answers to these questions will reveal themselves over the next few days. My advice at this point is to closely monitor forecasts for next week and be prepared to take cold weather protective actions if that need becomes a reality.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

[Texas Snowman]

For the first time in hours, there are no active tornado warnings in North Texas or Oklahoma…