Sounds about as exciting as my Friday night
1/28/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:10:07 PM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 49.3
Humidity (%) 79.7
Wind (mph) E 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.88
Dew Point: 43.4 ºF
Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Just got back from Hide and Seek...here's some advice, don't see this movie. Very disappointing if you ask me. Granted it's scary, but the story sucks and there aren't enough scary parts to make up for a nonexistent storyline.
In any event, models are still hinting at a pattern shift from east to west beginning next weekend...but it's still premature. At least the GFS is finally coming into line with the EMCWF. The latest GFS shows cold air over western washington after day 7...but can you actually believe this? Nah. Things will probably change.
R-Dub...I'm sending your money tomorrow. You'll have it Monday. Sorry for the delay. I'm still watching those tapes...I never get tired of them. It's unbelievable how identical both John Miller and Rich Marriot were. They have the same personality...bland and boring. I believe John Miller moved to California in 2000. Anyone remember Shannon O'Donnel? She was cool...she also moved to California in 2002. It's like walking down memory lane seeing all those old faces...esp. Q13 news. I didn't realize Montey Webb worked for Kiro 7 before Q13...now he works at Northwest Cable.
Keep me updated on the latest GFS model at 9pm.
That's all for now.
Anthony
In any event, models are still hinting at a pattern shift from east to west beginning next weekend...but it's still premature. At least the GFS is finally coming into line with the EMCWF. The latest GFS shows cold air over western washington after day 7...but can you actually believe this? Nah. Things will probably change.
R-Dub...I'm sending your money tomorrow. You'll have it Monday. Sorry for the delay. I'm still watching those tapes...I never get tired of them. It's unbelievable how identical both John Miller and Rich Marriot were. They have the same personality...bland and boring. I believe John Miller moved to California in 2000. Anyone remember Shannon O'Donnel? She was cool...she also moved to California in 2002. It's like walking down memory lane seeing all those old faces...esp. Q13 news. I didn't realize Montey Webb worked for Kiro 7 before Q13...now he works at Northwest Cable.
Keep me updated on the latest GFS model at 9pm.
That's all for now.
Anthony
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Thats cool Anthony, I figure you are really busy person right now with finals and everything at school!
Yeah I thought Shannon O'donnell was really cool!! She really knows her stuff! Do you remember Jim Castello from Q-13 back then, I think he was auctually worst then Walter Kelly is now. What is with Q-13 and meterologists??
Oh and thanks for the advice on "hide and seek". Looked good on the previews, but since you said its not very good, I'll just wait until it comes out on Pay per view, or DVD.
Also if anyone is bored tonight or Saturday night you should go see Kyle Cease perform his standup at the comedy undergound in Seattle! He is a good friend of mine, and extremely funny. Comedy Central is taping him there, so you might just be seen in the audience. If you ever have seen "Ten Things I Hate About You" Kyle is Bogey in the movie. He was also in "Not Another Teen Movie"
Yeah I thought Shannon O'donnell was really cool!! She really knows her stuff! Do you remember Jim Castello from Q-13 back then, I think he was auctually worst then Walter Kelly is now. What is with Q-13 and meterologists??
Oh and thanks for the advice on "hide and seek". Looked good on the previews, but since you said its not very good, I'll just wait until it comes out on Pay per view, or DVD.
Also if anyone is bored tonight or Saturday night you should go see Kyle Cease perform his standup at the comedy undergound in Seattle! He is a good friend of mine, and extremely funny. Comedy Central is taping him there, so you might just be seen in the audience. If you ever have seen "Ten Things I Hate About You" Kyle is Bogey in the movie. He was also in "Not Another Teen Movie"
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This thread's VERY quiet tonight...where's everyone? This will probably be my last post of the night...going to a party at 9pm.
Anything new on the GFS? Does it continue the trend of cooler/northwest flow? Hopefully.
Latest NWS discussion mentions nothing in the long range. They are once again down-playing the cold front on Monday...saying very little snow in the mountains. The afternoon discussion mentioned 6-10 inches...tonight it looks like 2-6 inches. Unbelievable two weeks...this is definitely not January.
In any event, keep the faith alive. And pray for the mountains...they REALLY need the snow.
Anthony
A balmy 52 F with cloudy conditions...and the BLAH continues.
Anything new on the GFS? Does it continue the trend of cooler/northwest flow? Hopefully.
Latest NWS discussion mentions nothing in the long range. They are once again down-playing the cold front on Monday...saying very little snow in the mountains. The afternoon discussion mentioned 6-10 inches...tonight it looks like 2-6 inches. Unbelievable two weeks...this is definitely not January.
In any event, keep the faith alive. And pray for the mountains...they REALLY need the snow.
Anthony
A balmy 52 F with cloudy conditions...and the BLAH continues.
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Ahhh...the site's back up.
At any rate, some good news in the weather department...a strong zonal flow should develop starting Friday and lasting for the forseeable future. 500 mb heights are around 534, definitely cold enough to bring the snow level down to 2k. And latest GFS models indicate a wet, westerly pattern for a long period. This is all good news...we need at least three feet up at Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass. No arctic air, although arctic air is at the border starting at day 5 thru day 7...but it never makes it south...though Bellingham might see something. At least things are finally starting to change.
Anthony
At any rate, some good news in the weather department...a strong zonal flow should develop starting Friday and lasting for the forseeable future. 500 mb heights are around 534, definitely cold enough to bring the snow level down to 2k. And latest GFS models indicate a wet, westerly pattern for a long period. This is all good news...we need at least three feet up at Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass. No arctic air, although arctic air is at the border starting at day 5 thru day 7...but it never makes it south...though Bellingham might see something. At least things are finally starting to change.
Anthony
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TT-SEA
Check this story out... it might even shed some light on the fact that it seems harder to get snow in Western Washington in the last decade...
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=624&ncid=624&e=1&u=/ap/20050130/ap_on_sc/warmer_world_i
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=624&ncid=624&e=1&u=/ap/20050130/ap_on_sc/warmer_world_i
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HA its funny NCEP national guys favoring one model, and NWS favoring another........
Here is snipit from NCEP.........
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST MON JAN 31 2005
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 6 - FEBRUARY 10 2005 . . . . . . . TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVING A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS COVERING EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED STATES TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE AREAS WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS RESTRICTED TO WESTERN CANADA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAS BEEN RATHER POOR LATELY AS WELL... WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH ITS FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW... AS THE LARGE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NCEP MODELS AND THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN FORECASTS BEGIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS BETTER OVER ALASKA... WITH MOST SOLUTIONS HAVING A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE BELOW NORMAL.
Here is snipit from NWS Seattle.............
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 330 PM PST MON JAN 31 2005
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVING A REALLY HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS. ONE SET OF SOLUTIONS WOULD DRAMATICALLY LOWER THE HEIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION FOR TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE OTHER SET OF SOLUTIONS WOULD MAINTAIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW SHUNTING THE COLDER AIR OFF TO THE EAST AND KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGHER...AND THE AIRMASS MILDER. ACCORDING TO CONFERENCE CALL LAST WEEK...TROPICAL INFLUENCES WOULD FAVOR MAINTAINING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE AND MILDER WEATHER. NO ONE CONFIDENT IN EITHER SOLUTIONS SO RATHER THAN MAJOR CHANGES...HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO THE SOMEWHAT WARMER SIDE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. &&
One thing they both agree on, Confidence in the extended is NON existant!!! Truly anything can happen from warm rain even in the passes, to Lowlands getting blasted.
Also did you have any hail down your way this morning Anthony??? We had about 5 min of hail that started to cover the ground! Look like a convergance zone setup. It formed over the top of us, then quickly moved a little south then stalled a bit. Don't know for sure, I was just watching the cloud formations at the golf course this morning. Looked quite dark looking south towards Everett for a fair amount of the day.
The hail was a bit of a suprise, it was around 9:00AM
Here is snipit from NCEP.........
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST MON JAN 31 2005
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 6 - FEBRUARY 10 2005 . . . . . . . TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVING A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS COVERING EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED STATES TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE AREAS WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS RESTRICTED TO WESTERN CANADA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAS BEEN RATHER POOR LATELY AS WELL... WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH ITS FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW... AS THE LARGE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NCEP MODELS AND THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN FORECASTS BEGIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS BETTER OVER ALASKA... WITH MOST SOLUTIONS HAVING A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE BELOW NORMAL.
Here is snipit from NWS Seattle.............
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 330 PM PST MON JAN 31 2005
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVING A REALLY HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS. ONE SET OF SOLUTIONS WOULD DRAMATICALLY LOWER THE HEIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION FOR TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE OTHER SET OF SOLUTIONS WOULD MAINTAIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW SHUNTING THE COLDER AIR OFF TO THE EAST AND KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGHER...AND THE AIRMASS MILDER. ACCORDING TO CONFERENCE CALL LAST WEEK...TROPICAL INFLUENCES WOULD FAVOR MAINTAINING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE AND MILDER WEATHER. NO ONE CONFIDENT IN EITHER SOLUTIONS SO RATHER THAN MAJOR CHANGES...HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO THE SOMEWHAT WARMER SIDE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. &&
One thing they both agree on, Confidence in the extended is NON existant!!! Truly anything can happen from warm rain even in the passes, to Lowlands getting blasted.
Also did you have any hail down your way this morning Anthony??? We had about 5 min of hail that started to cover the ground! Look like a convergance zone setup. It formed over the top of us, then quickly moved a little south then stalled a bit. Don't know for sure, I was just watching the cloud formations at the golf course this morning. Looked quite dark looking south towards Everett for a fair amount of the day.
The hail was a bit of a suprise, it was around 9:00AM
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http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/01 ... index.html
At least it appears the arctic is having record breaking cold, but it also hurts the ozone.
At least it appears the arctic is having record breaking cold, but it also hurts the ozone.
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Forecasting models have been poor this entire winter. The latest GFS and ECMWF models are in COMPLETE disagreement...the ECMWF has a major trough over the West, major ridge over the East...the GFS has a more zonal flow with high 500 mb heights over the entire country. Since this winter has leaned toward a warm pattern, I would have to agree with the GFS. But like R-Dub said, anything could really happen this weekend and next week.
Randy,
We saw no hail this morning. Just a little rain and VERY windy conditions.
Anthony
Randy,
We saw no hail this morning. Just a little rain and VERY windy conditions.
Anthony
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
A role reversal, the GFS showing warm, other models showing cooler.
Anyway, off the topic, but here is a link to an interesting article from intellicast, it is a couple of years old, and long and technical, but worth reading.
http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/L ... rticle.pdf
He says there is a high correlation between temps and solar cycles, and also decadal cycles are also very important. It is a good read.
Anyway, off the topic, but here is a link to an interesting article from intellicast, it is a couple of years old, and long and technical, but worth reading.
http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/L ... rticle.pdf
He says there is a high correlation between temps and solar cycles, and also decadal cycles are also very important. It is a good read.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Yep...sure thing Anthony. Am here at school right now waiting for class to start. Been at work today, so is also the reason I haven`t posted today.
BTW....PNA showing a very good numbers in the negeative trend for first half of next month, while the NAO MRF model shows a positive upward trend through that time. And just checked the 6z - 18z GFS, and they are showing some what of a cooling trend toward the 6th of Feb, and few days beyond that. And PNA MRF & Ensemble Models agrees and shows about a -4 of better.
As of about 4:30pm when I was on my was to school over here at Cascadia, temp was 55. We have partly cloudy skies. -- Andy
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index.html
BTW....PNA showing a very good numbers in the negeative trend for first half of next month, while the NAO MRF model shows a positive upward trend through that time. And just checked the 6z - 18z GFS, and they are showing some what of a cooling trend toward the 6th of Feb, and few days beyond that. And PNA MRF & Ensemble Models agrees and shows about a -4 of better.
As of about 4:30pm when I was on my was to school over here at Cascadia, temp was 55. We have partly cloudy skies. -- Andy
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index.html
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Not yet Anthony, I'm sure it will be here tomarrow though. Good old snail mail
Anyway does anyone remember what today is??????
1/31/1950 Coldest low in Seattle since daily records started being kept! 0 degrees in downtown, with most places west of the cascades being below zero!!
So to all those people that think we are now too late into the winter season to have bitter cold, just remember that
Another interesting tidbit, we recorded 2.15" of precip at the golf course this month, that is the driest January since we started keeping records in 1991. That breaks the old dry record of 2.5" in January of 1995.
We are mowing grass like crazy, have never seen anything like that since I have been there (7yrs) and there are bulbs poping up in the landscaping, and the trees are budding..........................
Though did anyone hear the bit of ominous words from Steve Pool at 4:30 today? He is afraid of what might happen when "the pendulum swings the other way"! He says, and I quote "I am concerned of what could happen soon"!!!!!! He thinks things could get quite wild after this unusual quiet weather.
Anyway does anyone remember what today is??????
1/31/1950 Coldest low in Seattle since daily records started being kept! 0 degrees in downtown, with most places west of the cascades being below zero!!
So to all those people that think we are now too late into the winter season to have bitter cold, just remember that
Another interesting tidbit, we recorded 2.15" of precip at the golf course this month, that is the driest January since we started keeping records in 1991. That breaks the old dry record of 2.5" in January of 1995.
We are mowing grass like crazy, have never seen anything like that since I have been there (7yrs) and there are bulbs poping up in the landscaping, and the trees are budding..........................
Though did anyone hear the bit of ominous words from Steve Pool at 4:30 today? He is afraid of what might happen when "the pendulum swings the other way"! He says, and I quote "I am concerned of what could happen soon"!!!!!! He thinks things could get quite wild after this unusual quiet weather.
Last edited by R-Dub on Mon Jan 31, 2005 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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These last two weeks have been ridiculous...and I'm not referring to just no lowland snow...this is the prime time of year for MAJOR mountain snows and to get NOTHING in the middle, end of January is plain ridiculous. The pattern has to eventually change...it may not be a severe pattern change that brings arctic air and lowland snow, but it brings wetter weather to the lowlands and mountain snow.
Anthony
Anthony
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TT-SEA
Time to bring everyone down with reality...
There is no dramatic cold coming in the next two weeks and most likely beyond. In fact by next week at this time we will be starting a warming trend again. Mark my words.
I am just praying for snow in the mountains this weekend because all indications are that its back to high pressure after that.
I am very much enjoying all the signs of spring. This winter is done for the most part (cooler this weekend but nothing too major). I have been saying this for three weeks. It is unfolding precisely as I thought.
Everyone keeps mentioning what has happened on rare occasions like 1950 and forgetting to mention all the years that nothing has happened. There is no significant pattern change coming. The NCEP and the NWS are debating northern or southern stream this weekend for Seattle but either way there will be no lowland snow. Every run of the GFS shows high pressure building next week. There has been absolutely no variation on that. All of the ensemble members agree as well... looking at the PNA forecast.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html
Even the ECMWF agrees. There may be doubt about the East Coast... but for us its back to warmer and drier than normal after about 2/7.
Sorry... thats the facts. I don't create the weather... I just report whats happening.
Read the other thread here about the pattern for January 30 - February 12.
Proceed to rip on me now!!
There is no dramatic cold coming in the next two weeks and most likely beyond. In fact by next week at this time we will be starting a warming trend again. Mark my words.
I am just praying for snow in the mountains this weekend because all indications are that its back to high pressure after that.
I am very much enjoying all the signs of spring. This winter is done for the most part (cooler this weekend but nothing too major). I have been saying this for three weeks. It is unfolding precisely as I thought.
Everyone keeps mentioning what has happened on rare occasions like 1950 and forgetting to mention all the years that nothing has happened. There is no significant pattern change coming. The NCEP and the NWS are debating northern or southern stream this weekend for Seattle but either way there will be no lowland snow. Every run of the GFS shows high pressure building next week. There has been absolutely no variation on that. All of the ensemble members agree as well... looking at the PNA forecast.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html
Even the ECMWF agrees. There may be doubt about the East Coast... but for us its back to warmer and drier than normal after about 2/7.
Sorry... thats the facts. I don't create the weather... I just report whats happening.
Read the other thread here about the pattern for January 30 - February 12.
Proceed to rip on me now!!
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