Texas Winter 2022-2023

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EnnisTx
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1141 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:44 am

Report of tornado on the ground near Baylor Grapevine.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1142 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:45 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:The pirate has passed.

RIP Mike Leach


Sad day for a lot of folks, for sure.

There’s actually a video from years ago of Coach Leach doing a TV weather cast. He was one of a kind…
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1143 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:49 am

EnnisTx wrote:Report of tornado on the ground near Baylor Grapevine.

Is it just me, or is that a tiny debris ball? (Pink and White Pixels)

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-8.47.45-AM.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1144 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:49 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1145 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:50 am

Iceresistance wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Report of tornado on the ground near Baylor Grapevine.

Is it just me, or is that a tiny debris ball? (Pink and White Pixels)

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-8.47.45-AM.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-8.47.45-AM.png


Warning going out
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1146 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:51 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
848 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Denton County in north central Texas...
Northeastern Tarrant County in north central Texas...
Northwestern Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 915 AM CST.

* At 847 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Grapevine, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Lewisville around 905 AM CST.
Carrollton and Hebron around 910 AM CST.
The Colony around 915 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Grapevine Lake and Lewisville Lake.

This includes Interstate 35E between mile markers 443 and 452.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 9684 3299 9684 3298 9683 3290 9711
3299 9715 3313 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 226DEG 30KT 3296 9707

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1147 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:52 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1148 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:53 am

I'm coming out of lurk mode to post snippet of an email from Jeff Lindner. Man, horrible and sad news about Mike Leach. Guy was one-of-a-kind. :(

Next Week:
Almost all of the focus will be with a potential major arctic air intrusion into the US starting early next week. Upper air pattern will result in a building Alaskan ridge which will help to dislodge extremely cold Siberian air (currently -55 to -75F) and send this air mass over the Arctic Ocean and in the general direction of NW Canada. As this air mass moves into NW Canada an impressive 1055-1070mb arctic surface high pressure dome forms and begins to drop southward toward the Montana border early next week. Extremely cold air is dislodged and begins to move southward with widespread -40 to -50 F into SW Canada and approaching the US border. Upper air pattern then supports this air mass being unleashed into the US early to mid next week. IF model solutions are correct and a 1060-1065mb high is located near the Montana border early next week, there will be little to stop the incredibly dense air mass from pouring southward down the plains.

Since we are still talking in the day 7-9 range for any impacts in the southern plains, will follow the ensemble mean of the GFS, CMC, and ECWMF which all show below to well below normal temperatures starting as early as the 22nd and lasting through the 26/27th. I strongly caution against individual model runs showing various winter storm events as there has been little consistency from run to run and between the different models.

The biggest questions at this point is how cold of an air mass builds into NW Canada this weekend, how much of this cold air comes as far south as TX, does this air mass modify any as it moves southward, will there be any winter precipitation next week. The answers to these questions will reveal themselves over the next few days. My advice at this point is to closely monitor forecasts for next week and be prepared to take cold weather protective actions if that need becomes a reality.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1149 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:55 am

Ntxw wrote:Mr. Heat Miser tear down this wall.

https://i.imgur.com/EtiJl03.gif


Emergency wall reinforcements are being sent northward.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1150 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:56 am

Reports of damage near 114 and 26 Grapevine
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1151 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:57 am

6z GFS with -20's and close to -30's in OK... Christmas Day... Although I think that would be due to snowpack
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Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1152 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:58 am

EnnisTx wrote:Reports of damage near 114 and 26 Grapevine

Sams club with significant roof damage.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1153 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:00 am

EnnisTx wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Reports of damage near 114 and 26 Grapevine

Sams club with significant roof damage.


Is Costco ok?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1154 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:03 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1155 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:04 am

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
902 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022


TXC113-121-131515-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0079.000000T0000Z-221213T1515Z/
Denton TX-Dallas TX-
902 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DENTON AND NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTIES...

At 902 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Lewisville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Hebron around 910 AM CST.
The Colony around 915 AM CST.
Plano around 925 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Lewisville Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter now! Get to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 9684 3299 9684 3298 9683 3292 9703
3306 9703 3313 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 226DEG 30KT 3305 9696

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1156 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:08 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Reports of damage near 114 and 26 Grapevine

Sams club with significant roof damage.


Is Costco ok?

Unsure, numerous buildings affected in that area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1157 Postby Portastorm » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:13 am

Yikes! This looks fairly big. Taken near the Fort Worth naval air station.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1158 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:19 am

How did no one notice the 1072 mb HP over Idaho on the 6z GFS?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1159 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:19 am

Wow, crazy morning. Did NOT expect this. I thought the severe risk was well east of DFW today. I have not even been paying attention to it since it didn't impact MBY I thought.

This is the first time in my 7 years here they went into severe weather shelter in classes. I had a good 70 kids in my room. Lol.

My nephew from Kansas is stuck at DFW Airport also.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1160 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:21 am

wxman57 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Mr. Heat Miser tear down this wall.

https://i.imgur.com/EtiJl03.gif


Emergency wall reinforcements are being sent northward.



Sir, I am hearing reports of your jet being parked near the runway ( in the back of Hobby) for a take off when you give the pilot the green light. Can you confirm this?
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