Texas Winter 2015-2016

[JayDT]

Is the storm still digging?

[hriverajr]

Is the storm still digging?

Yes it still is.

[Yukon Cornelius]

This wind has been terrible since mid day yesterday. Sustained at 40-45, gusts at 52-55.

[TheProfessor]

Are the temps supposed to stop dropping? it's 39 here according to Weatherbug

[TheProfessor]

Is the storm still digging?

Yes it still is.

So it's still digging even though the models have it turning east right now?

[Ntxw]

Are the temps supposed to stop dropping? it's 39 here according to Weatherbug

GFS had temps warming up a bit or stabilizing until it cools to low/mid 30s tonight and tomorrow morning. Though with CAA I find that a bit optimistic by the model.

Any changeover will have to wait for the 850mb 0C line to advance which sits just west of Wichita Falls down to about Abilene and near DRT

[srainhoutx]

EWX is going to attempt a Special 18Z sounding for DRT. Since hriverajr reported sleet and Western Val Verde County is reporting snow, the models appear to have over estimated the warm nose.

[Ntxw]

Once it comes out of SW Texas that's when the guidance have the sharp NE/N turn, if we can stall that and it continue east or if it goes further south before that happens then the odds of getting dry slotted once it gets cold enough becomes less.

[DonWrk]

Is there good agreement when it will eject? Any model showing a stall or continuous digging?

[TheProfessor]

it looks like some of them are ejecting the Upper low around 6PM(0z) today.

[wxman57]

Is the storm still digging?

Yes it still is.

So it's still digging even though the models have it turning east right now?

GFS has it starting to turn NE this afternoon. It's not doing anything differently than the models had been predicting.

FYI: We talked with the U of H balloon launch team. There is no one who could make it to campus to launch one today. Everyone is gone for the holiday.

[Brent]

FWD said this at 9:15am... we'll see how it goes.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THEN SHIFT TO WINTER WEATHER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR WEST AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. A TRANSITION TO SNOW COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE METROPLEX. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS UPSTREAM AND THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA AS THE DAY WEARS
ON.

[hriverajr]

Lightly snowing here in Del Rio

[srainhoutx]

Lightly snowing here in Del Rio

Multiple reports of snow around 1700 ft in Val Verde County now. Models busted on the warm nose...

[JayDT]

I remember seeing just yesterday that the high today was gonna be 54.

[ravyrn]

Video of the Rowlett wedge

[TeamPlayersBlue]

HRRR has it digging for another 5 hours. Last night it said it would start makeing the turn about now i think. Posted it earlier in the thread. When the low hits C Tx i expect precip, whatever it is, to ramp up even more due to the proximity of the GOM

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

WWA just issued northwest of Austin/San Antonio for the Hill Country.

[srainhoutx]

One of the survey teams in Garland have determined that an EF-4 tornado impacted portions of that area last night. Only the second EF-4 in FWD WFO since 1950.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Some precip coming up from Mexico will bring some wintery weather i think if the 850 front progresses a bit more. Its currently just NW of Del Rio, then goes NNE from there. Should continue to sag SE.