Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

One of the survey teams in Garland have determined that an EF-4 tornado impacted portions of that area last night. Only the second EF-4 in FWD WFO since 1950.

It would also be Garland's second F4 or EF4 tornado. A suspect F4 Tornado struck the city on May 9th 1927

[Longhornmaniac8]

Not convinced we're going to get cold enough here for any of the fun.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Powerful cold front sweeping in SE TX. Temperatures range from 46 at Caldwell to 75 at Crockett.

Cold front will move across SE TX this afternoon with numerous showers and thunderstorms as lift becomes maximized. Tornado threat thus far has not been overly aggressive with only one warning near the College Station area. Heavy rainfall is actually starting to become a concern as cells continue to line up in SSW to NNE bands and train. Some areas in Austin and Washington Counties have already picked up 1-2 inches in the last hour or so.

Severe threat including tornadoes will continue east of the cold front across the warm sector. Storms still struggling to break through and deepen over the warm sector, but any that do with like become tornadic quickly. Overall think instability is just not enough to really get things going, but we are heading toward the peak of whatever modest heating we are going to get today and that could be enough to bump those parameters up a little more allowing for more sustained updrafts.

Gradient winds really ramping up at midday with surface pressures down toward 29.60in and still falling over the region. Seeing easily gusts over 35mph at many sites and likely some gusting to 40mph. Winds behind the cold front are even stronger with frequent 35-40mph gusts and a dramatic temperature drop of 25-30 degrees.

Note: Initial rating of Rowlett/Garland Tornado….widespread EF 3 damage with pockets of EF 4 damage. This would be only the second EF 4 tornado in Dallas County since 1950. Prelim track 20-40 miles long with widths of 1/8th to 1 mile. It is possible the long track is multiple tornadoes from the same supercell. 11 fatalities with over 40 injuries and at least 600 homes damaged or destroyed. 8 fatalities were in Garland with at least 3 inside vehicles which were swept off I-30 at the George Bush Turnpike interchange on the west side of Lake Ray Hubbard.

[Ralph's Weather]

Tornado warning for Smith and Wood counties. Sounds like the rotation is to my NE.

[Tireman4]

Yes. It has happend before...very odd...but yes.

[TrekkerCC]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion highlighting the fact that the elevated thunderstorms in the NC TX area might produce marginally severe hail. There is likely no watch issued for this since the marginal nature of the severe weather.

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING ABOVE A SHALLOW SFC
STABLE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
TX/FAR S-CNTRL OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A SATURATED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
PROFILE ARE ALL SUPPORTING UP TO 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE
MCD AREA PER LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. NLY WINDS UP TO 1 KM AGL
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT ARE PRESENT ON THE KFWS VWP...AND
SWLY TO SLY WINDS ATTENDANT TO AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW ARE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT FROM 2-10 KM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45-55 KT ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR ABOVE 1 KM...ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

[hriverajr]

Moderate sleet and snow here in Del Rio, been going on for a while.. too warm to stick though

[Ntxw]

Moderate sleet and snow here in Del Rio, been going on for awhile.. to warm to stick though

What is your current temperature?

[hriverajr]

Moderate sleet and snow here in Del Rio, been going on for awhile.. to warm to stick though

What is your current temperature?

34, and all snow now.. falling pretty good too...

[TheProfessor]

is it too much to hope for this later tonight?

[Tireman4]

Was snow forecasted for your region?

[hriverajr]

Was snow forecasted for your region?

Nope

[hriverajr]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axR867ywSMc

short clip drt

[Ntxw]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axR867ywSMc

short clip drt

Congratulations

[Tireman4]

Line forming to the West of Houston...gotta watch this one...

[Tireman4]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axR867ywSMc

short clip drt

Must moe it East to Porta!!!

[Ntxw]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axR867ywSMc

short clip drt

Must moe it East to Porta!!!

Vortmax will pass over DRT per some of the short range guidance and then near the Austin area. Since the surface low isn't a powerhouse yet maybe a passing quick turnover might happen associated with the very strong lift and cold column profiles. Long shot but Champ the Charger is ready!

[Brent]

39 degrees here this was not forecast this early...

[TheProfessor]

Down to 38 according to weatherbug now.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Down to 38 according to weatherbug now.

Sitting at 41 with heavy rain here in Richardson.