Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I read on Twitter that if this cold outbreak verifies, it will be in top 2 coldest januaries on record Not sure I agree with that

[Brent]

GFS has highs of 14 11 and 6 here...

This is crazy

[Sambucol2024]

I read on Twitter that if this cold outbreak verifies, it will be in top 2 coldest januaries on record Not sure I agree with that

Just wondering who posted that info on Twitter? I would like to share it with family.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I read on Twitter that if this cold outbreak verifies, it will be in top 2 coldest januaries on record Not sure I agree with that

Just wondering who posted that info on Twitter? I would like to share it with family.

I think it was mike thomas. Alot of people hype stuff on there unfortunately

[Brent]

I read on Twitter that if this cold outbreak verifies, it will be in top 2 coldest januaries on record Not sure I agree with that

I mean I guess if the pattern reloads it could be. The GFS actually shows two fronts it briefly warms up near freezing in between before temps bottom out again

But that's so far out in fantasy land

We had a stretch below 20 degrees this year it just didn't last long

[Quixotic]

I don’t see this reloading as depicted unless we get cross polar flow

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I read on Twitter that if this cold outbreak verifies, it will be in top 2 coldest januaries on record Not sure I agree with that

I mean I guess if the pattern reloads it could be. The GFS actually shows two fronts it briefly warms up near freezing in between

But that's so far out

We had a stretch below 20 degrees this year it just didn't last long

It was pretty cold for a week here. Anytime you can get highs in the 20s, that's cold. We all just want to see some snow while it's cold.

[tolakram]

I don't believe either model yet, nice that both go out to the crazy timeframes but I would not be surprised by a complete flip in a few days.

I want clear skies up here (astrophotography) and this kind of cold outbreak would do it. Might be why I have my doubts.

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/187314847 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

[South Texas Storms]

Thankfully the extreme cold model runs are still way out there...plenty of time for things to change. If they do happen to verify, we would likely see rolling blackouts again, just like in February 2021. ERCOT already warned they would happen if we see another cold air outbreak. No thanks, I'll pass...that was horrible.

[Ntxw]

I don’t see this reloading as depicted unless we get cross polar flow

The ensembles reload Canada as the jet retraction continues. That's still expected, and then we move towards more canonical Nina for Feb. Jan 1985 had a second blast much further west (the one that was big for TX) in Feb. So there is some merit it could happen if going by pattern recognition.

[Sambucol2024]

Thankfully the extreme cold model runs are still way out there...plenty of time for things to change. If they do happen to verify, we would likely see rolling blackouts again, just like in February 2021. ERCOT already warned they would happen if we see another cold air outbreak. No thanks, I'll pass...that was horrible.

Earlier this month, ERCOT reported they were seeing a similar pattern now as in 2021 leading up to the Feb 2021 outbreak. Might be a good idea to make sure generators are ready just in case.

https://www.fox4news.com/news/texas-win ... -grid-2024

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I don’t see this reloading as depicted unless we get cross polar flow

The ensembles reload Canada as the jet retraction continues. That's still expected, and then we move towards more canonical Nina for Feb. Jan 1985 had a second blast much further west (the one that was big for TX) in Feb. So there is some merit it could happen if going by pattern recognition.

When do you think we will have our best opportunities at cold and snow moving forward? Be honest lol

[Ntxw]

I don’t see this reloading as depicted unless we get cross polar flow

The ensembles reload Canada as the jet retraction continues. That's still expected, and then we move towards more canonical Nina for Feb. Jan 1985 had a second blast much further west (the one that was big for TX) in Feb. So there is some merit it could happen if going by pattern recognition.

When do you think we will have our best opportunities at cold and snow moving forward? Be honest lol

I think the storm between 5th-8th is legit and there will be some cold. Even more cold when the PNA transitions from + to -, likely middle January to early Feb.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The ensembles reload Canada as the jet retraction continues. That's still expected, and then we move towards more canonical Nina for Feb. Jan 1985 had a second blast much further west (the one that was big for TX) in Feb. So there is some merit it could happen if going by pattern recognition.

When do you think we will have our best opportunities at cold and snow moving forward? Be honest lol

I think the storm between 5th-8th is legit and there will be some cold. Even more cold when the PNA transitions from + to -, likely middle January to early Feb.

I'm hoping even with the niña, the cold can last longer than most people think, especially with a less negative pdo and possibly a pv split SSWE event

[Harp.1]

Some EPS mean temperature forecasts for Austin and some areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 10th (12/28, 12Z run):

50 (68)–29 (18)...Amarillo
53 (69)–35 (23)...Austin Camp Mabry
46 (65)–30 (18)...Dallas
39 (60)–23 (09)...Oklahoma City
35 (56)–19 (07)...Tulsa

=====

Some GEFS mean temperature forecasts for Austin and some areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 10th (12/28, 12Z run):

50 (63)–29 (15)...Amarillo
58 (71)–42 (29)...Austin Camp Mabry
49 (64)–35 (25)...Dallas
41 (58)–28 (15)...Oklahoma City
38 (56)–25 (11)...Tulsa

What is the point of this??

[Throckmorton]

Thankfully the extreme cold model runs are still way out there...plenty of time for things to change. If they do happen to verify, we would likely see rolling blackouts again, just like in February 2021. ERCOT already warned they would happen if we see another cold air outbreak. No thanks, I'll pass...that was horrible.

Earlier this month, ERCOT reported they were seeing a similar pattern now as in 2021 leading up to the Feb 2021 outbreak. Might be a good idea to make sure generators are ready just in case.

https://www.fox4news.com/news/texas-win ... -grid-2024

No one should trust anything ERCOT says. It's suspicious to the max that ERCOT never explained which weather patterns supported its February 2021 repeat warning.

[Cpv17]

When do you think we will have our best opportunities at cold and snow moving forward? Be honest lol

I think the storm between 5th-8th is legit and there will be some cold. Even more cold when the PNA transitions from + to -, likely middle January to early Feb.

I'm hoping even with the niña, the cold can last longer than most people think, especially with a less negative pdo and possibly a pv split SSWE event

If it’s an actual split and not a stretch then oh boy.

[Throckmorton]

Some GEFS mean temperature forecasts for Austin and some areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 10th (12/28, 18Z run):

45 (63)–24 (04)...Amarillo
49 (71)–32 (20)...Austin Camp Mabry
44 (67)–29 (18)...Dallas
39 (57)–24 (04)...Oklahoma City
36 (52)–22 (04)...Tulsa

[Quixotic]

I don’t see this reloading as depicted unless we get cross polar flow

The ensembles reload Canada as the jet retraction continues. That's still expected, and then we move towards more canonical Nina for Feb. Jan 1985 had a second blast much further west (the one that was big for TX) in Feb. So there is some merit it could happen if going by pattern recognition.

We shall see. 1985 and 1977 are all timers. 1977 looks more like the models because of the Greenland block. 85 was a series of transient bitter cold until the beginning of February which almost broke the December 1983 hours below freezing. Lofty company.