Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

Looks like I better get the snow shovel, or better yet snow plow, out next Tuesday.

0z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192m.gif

You like that? Well, what until you see the 12z run. Winter fun for everyone!

I just looked at the 12z looks like it does away with most of the precip? Maybe I'm missing something.

[srainhoutx]

Got to love the 12Z GFS. A 1051 mb Arctic High Pressure settling into the S Plains and STJ disturbances in the flow in the longer range. If the GFS is close to being correct, we see where all the cold air that has been bottled up in Alaska, China, and W Siberia will be headed. How about the PV near Hudson Bay.

[serenata09]

For what it's worth... 70% chance of snow Monday

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

[wxgirl69]

Got to love the 12Z GFS. A 1051 mb Arctic High Pressure settling into the S Plains and STJ disturbances in the flow in the longer range. If the GFS is close to being correct, we see where all the cold air that has been bottled up in Alaska, China, and W Siberia will be headed. How about the PV near Hudson Bay.

If it's heading towards Hudson Bay.. Doesn't that mean all the cold will come down to the east of us and for the most part, we will not get the brunt of the cold air?

[snow and ice]

Wow! The 12z Ensembles is the perfect setup for winter weather in Texas. Ridge popping out west and lower heights centered over Texas and the southern plains:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f276.html

[snow and ice]

12z EURO has a strong upper level feature over NE Texas and SW Arkansas next Tuesday, which probably means I'll have a pretty good chance for snow next Monday night and Tuesday.

12Z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9112312!!/

[HockeyTx82]

For what it's worth... 70% chance of snow Monday

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

I saw that then went to show a friend and it chaned to just rain now. Does anyone know what they use to forecast on that site?

[gboudx]

For what it's worth... 70% chance of snow Monday

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

I saw that then went to show a friend and it chaned to just rain now. Does anyone know what they use to forecast on that site?

I think it's strictly based on model data. I never get my long-range forecast from those sites. Sometimes, they're fun to look at though.

[HockeyTx82]

For what it's worth... 70% chance of snow Monday

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

I saw that then went to show a friend and it chaned to just rain now. Does anyone know what they use to forecast on that site?

I think it's strictly based on model data. I never get my long-range forecast from those sites. Sometimes, they're fun to look at though.

Well either way it looks like it's going to be getting colder and Sunday will be a transition day of some kind.

[gboudx]

Well either way it looks like it's going to be getting colder and Sunday will be a transition day of some kind.

My standard reply is "2 days". I ain't buying into any model data showing wintry precip for the Dallas area until it's 2 days in. And even then I'll be skeptical.

I'll let Portastorm continue in the role of Charlie Brown.

[Portastorm]

Looks like I better get the snow shovel, or better yet snow plow, out next Tuesday.

0z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192m.gif

You like that? Well, what until you see the 12z run. Winter fun for everyone!

I just looked at the 12z looks like it does away with most of the precip? Maybe I'm missing something.

No, it still shows precip but the post-frontal precip indicated is in the central and southern part of the state. Keep in mind that when the GFS shows precip on a certain hour run, it is showing precip from the previous 6 hours.

[Portastorm]

For what it's worth... 70% chance of snow Monday

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

I saw that then went to show a friend and it chaned to just rain now. Does anyone know what they use to forecast on that site?

The temps and indicated/forecasted weather are derived from computer-run GFS forecasts. They will change every 6 hours based on the previous GFS run.

[srainhoutx]

First "hint" from Midland/Odessa...snipet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...


MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. THE GFS IS INDICATING A MORE
OPEN TROUGH WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION AT ITS BASE MOVING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THE
12Z ECMWF STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD MOISTURE WEST BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE AREA. I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE THERE MAY BE WINTRY WEATHER TO
DEAL WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO GARNER MOST
OF THE ATTENTION FOR FUTURE SHIFTS.

[Portastorm]

Well either way it looks like it's going to be getting colder and Sunday will be a transition day of some kind.

My standard reply is "2 days". I ain't buying into any model data showing wintry precip for the Dallas area until it's 2 days in. And even then I'll be skeptical.

I'll let Portastorm continue in the role of Charlie Brown.

Hey buddy ... I ain't buying into snow/ice just yet. All I've said is it is definitely going to get colder.

But I'll admit that I know where in the closet the kicking shoes are.

[srainhoutx]

Second "hint" From Amarillo...snipet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
230 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...


NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...BUT MORE LIKELY WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY...ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE ROCKIES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS NOW SHOWING AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
COMING CLOSER INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MOSTLY RAIN SUNDAY CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR MASS IS AS DEEP AS
THE GFS IS SHOWING...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MOSTLY SNOW.

[Portastorm]

snow and ice is correct. Not only the GFS but the latest Euro (12z) is showing a cold enough airmass along with an upper-low trajectory over the Red River that could bring frozen precip to places like Amarillo-Wichita Falls-Denton-Texarkana, etc, early next week.

Here is the 12z Euro 500mb map (notice the location of the upper low):



Here is the 12z Euro 850mb map (notice the very cold airmass coming across the southern Plains):

[HockeyTx82]

snow and ice is correct. Not only the GFS but the latest Euro (12z) is showing a cold enough airmass along with an upper-low trajectory over the Red River that could bring frozen precip to places like Amarillo-Wichita Falls-Denton-Texarkana, etc, early next week.

Here is the 12z Euro 500mb map (notice the location of the upper low):



Here is the 12z Euro 850mb map (notice the very cold airmass coming across the southern Plains):

Just curious, and I may be way off here, but is this scenario we are seeing upcoming show any signs of being a McFarland signature? I just remember last winter there was a huge talk about that but it never came to be. I am a newbie so go easy.

[somethingfunny]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTUy_mlpgy4[/youtube]

[Portastorm]

In short, no. Generally a McFarland Signature shows a deep polar vortex with a major trough over the nation's midsection. Above the trough is a very large and strong high pressure ridge. There's also the appearance of what is called an Omega Block ... literally the shape of Omega based on the trough-ridge pattern.

I don't think what we're seeing ahead is like that. Cross polar flow can occur without a McFarland Signature setting up.

And please don't apologize about being a newbie ... we're friendly here at S2K!

[southerngale]

Aside from the WPAC, it's been a little slow on s2k today. I found the thread with all the interesting stuff!

I hope you guys in North Texas get some snow, but are any of these models that I do not believe this far out showing anything remotely interesting reaching us way down here?