Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[snowcane180]

what do the temps look like for southern georgia

[Ntxw]

what do the temps look like for southern georgia

From my best guess through the EC (colder of the models) parts of central and southern GA could expect to see frosts and freezes late next week. Perhaps 50-60s for highs? 850 temps actually has the 0c therm line down to the gulf coast, so it's not inconceivable it could well be in the 30s even down there should that verify.

[snowcane180]

some forecaster say this winter's nina may be a super one

[snowcane180]

I wonder what this winter is going to look like

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z ECMWF (Oct. 31st, 2010):

WED MORNING (850mb temperatures/SLP):


THURS MORNING (850mb temperatures/SLP):


FRI MORNING (850mb temperatures/SLP):


SAT MORNING (850mb temperatures/SLP):




12z GFS (Oct. 31st, 2010):

WED MORNING (850mb temperatures/wind/height):


THURS MORNING (850mb temperatures/wind/height):


FRI MORNING (850mb temperatures/wind/height):


SAT MORNING (850mb temperatures/wind/height):



***Keep in mind that surface temperatures can differ from 850mb temperatures.***

[TwisterFanatic]

So, its looks like to me. I could have quick shot of colder air.

[snowcane180]

It says we are suppose to have a warmer than average winter in southern georgia. saturday has a high of 67 and a low of 35. I know thats a record low

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight's 00z ECMWF and GFS are slightly warmer for us/further east with the mid and late week cold airmass. They still look seasonably chilly, and would likely still equate to our coldest temperatures of the season; but we only get a glancing taste of the airmass overall.

This seems to be a trend with the models lately though. The 00z runs all seem to be warmer/further east with the cold, while the 12z runs all tend to be colder/further west with the cold.

Will this pattern continue with the next set of 12z runs? I guess we'll find out later today..

[TwisterFanatic]

Tonight's 00z ECMWF and GFS are slightly warmer for us/further east with the mid and late week cold airmass. They still look seasonably chilly, and would likely still equate to our coldest temperatures of the season; but we only get a glancing taste of the airmass overall.

This seems to be a trend with the models lately though. The 00z runs all seem to be warmer/further east with the cold, while the 12z runs all tend to be colder/further west with the cold.

Will this pattern continue with the next set of 12z runs? I guess we'll find out later today..

The weather guys here in Eastern OK seem to think they colder solution will happen. They have lower 50's for highs and mid to upper 20's at night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The flip back to cold was not as great in today's 12z model runs. They are slightly cooler than last night's 00z, but overall it looks like the GFS and ECMWF may be starting converge on a similar scenario; with the brunt of the cold headed for the upper midwest, the mid mississippi valley and down into the southeast, with the southern plains just getting a taste of the western edge. The "taste" will still likely be enough to bring a freeze to a good chunk of Oklahoma by Friday morning though, with highs near or below 60F for a couple of days. Northeastern Oklahoma might even struggle to top 50F on Friday afternoon under sunny skies. All-in-all though, this is looking like just a "typical" early November cool down, with nothing unusual or particularly spectacular expected. Oklahoma City's early November record low of 11F (Nov. 3rd, 1991) will definitely not be in jeopardy this time around. (lol)


( Brief Update- well it now looks like we might not get those couple of days with highs near or below 60F. The latest NWS forecast update now has highs in the lower to middle 60s to end the week in OKC; removing the 50s from the forecast. The low temperatures still look chilly though, with a frost or freeze still being forecasted by the NWS for many.

It is worth noting though that the models do look slightly cooler with the highs, so may be the NWS will lower them again in the future.. )

[Ntxw]

The flip back to cold was not as great in today's 12z model runs. They are slightly cooler than last night's 00z, but overall it looks like the GFS and ECMWF may be starting converge on a similar scenario; with the brunt of the cold headed for the upper midwest, the mid mississippi valley and down into the southeast, with the southern plains just getting a taste of the western edge. The "taste" will still likely be enough to bring a freeze to a good chunk of Oklahoma by Friday morning though, with highs near or below 60F for a couple of days. Northeastern Oklahoma might even struggle to top 50F on Friday afternoon under sunny skies. All-in-all though, this is looking like just a "typical" early November cool down, with nothing unusual or particularly spectacular expected. Oklahoma City's early November record low of 11F (Nov. 3rd, 1991) will definitely not be in jeopardy this time around. (lol)

I think this first set of weather patterns will say lots about this winter. Today was a nice warm day for the southern plains with about average nightly readings. A cold intrusion is set to come in with the brunt of it heading towards the eastern conus.

Midwest, Northeast will have the chilliest readings and the deep south a brief clip. A rogue storm will make things windy and damp for about a day in the southern plains and quickly rebound (though not linked but the unusual SJT may have something to do this winter).

[somethingfunny]

Heck of a low pressure system moving across Texas today.

52°, north winds sustained at 26mph gusting to 32mph, 1.3" of rain so far and several hours more to come....

I love winter, but this part sucks.

[Ntxw]

If this were a month or two later, would make for a nice wintry system from N, Central, to SE Texas with the backlash side of the intense low. Definitely the right set up for it. Imagine if all that rain was sneux

[CaptinCrunch]

Still raining in Fort Worth this morning with a temp of 48. Will continue to be chilly thru Saturday with high's not getting above 70 till Sunday. Looks like mid 70's by mid next week before next cold front by the weekend.

[gboudx]

Checked my rain gauge this morning and the storm total was just over 4". Seems like we go thru a dry spell and then get a deluge. No in-between.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[Extremeweatherguy]

Expected Low Temperatures Tonight:




Actual Low Temperatures:




updated to include actual lows

[Extremeweatherguy]

So far the winds are staying up just enough to ease our temperature fall tonight. We did get down into the lower 40s for a while, but some mixing has brought the temperature back up into the mid 40s (for the OKC region) at midnight. If the wind can die down below 5-10mph at any point overnight though, then I expect the temperature to fall quickly. With dewpoints in the low-mid 20s, there is still plenty of room for cooling.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We have another freeze warning tonight; and with lighter winds in place, I wouldn't be surprised to see the temperature slightly colder tomorrow morning than it was today (especially the eastern 2/3rds of Oklahoma and N. Texas).

Beyond tonight though, our eyes turn toward late next week and the weeks to follow (leading up to Thanksgiving). The models (GFS, ECMWF) have been quite consistent in showing a much colder and much stormier pattern setting up across the nation in this timeframe. There is some indication that by the middle of the month (6-16 days), we might even be dealing with a winter precipitation threats across northern parts of the region (TX panhandle, S KS, OK, perhaps N TX). Regardless of whether any of those threats actually pan out; the next few weeks will definitely be interesting to watch unfold..

[Ntxw]

Run after run have hinted (particularly the GFS...which amazingly has done a decent job this year) at the pattern setup for winter. My bet is that snow will likely fall from the rockies to the Great lakes sometime next week setting up a chilly pattern in which maybe moving into the southern plains sector. I wouldn't be surprised if snow has fallen by Thanksgiving in the Tx and Ok panhandles if the models do verify with several cutoff storms.