SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[BigB0882]

NWS now forecasting a low of 15 for Baton Rouge Monday night! Wowzers! That would be the coldest it has been since I moved here in 2001. I think it got colder during the 1989 cold blast but I was too young to care and didn't live here anyway (although I lived in SETX where they felt the same cold). GFS still doesn't see it being that cold, instead they say low to mid 20s. We shall see. I tend to go with upper teens which would be a blend of the two. We typically undershoot lows this season, it seems, as have many others in these threads. I can't imagine us undershooting 15, though. I wonder if we make it to the forecast highs of 39 and 40 on Monday and Tuesday. Could end up staying in the mid 30s and only getting above freezing for 3-4 hours of the day.

[PTrackerLA]

NWS now forecasting 23 tonight and 17 tomorrow night. Like BigB said we have been lower than guidance on lows several times this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see the low reach lower. 15 degrees would be the coldest since 1989!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm thinking of the opposite. Don't think it will get low as forecast. Probably be 3-4 degrees warmer at least. Never seems to get as cold as they say.

[BigB0882]

Lately it has been colder than forecast. We hit freezing a few times when our lows were forecast to only get into the upper 30s. I was shocked to see frost two mornings in a row when the local news said 38 or 37 for lows. It was a very heavy frost, too. That is how I remember it, at least. This is only for the more recent timeline, though. Usually we don't get as cold as forecast, you are right, but this winter has been very different.

How is this for a shocker. Central's school system is closing school on Tuesday for the children. I guess they don't want them waiting for the buses out in the teens/lower 20s? I am shocked as ice/snow will not be an issue. I didn't think you canceled school for just cold unless it was cold like they see up in North Dakota, which doesn't happen down here. I am curious to see if more schools follow suit. I am a teacher, I wouldn't mind. lol

[Ntxw]

Out of curiosity I took MOS output (MAVS and MET) which had Baton Rouge down to 12 and 15. Since this guidance I believe also factors in climo and other variables interesting that they go so cold as to pure deterministic runs which are a few degrees warmer. A lot will depend on clouds and winds which can add a few degrees.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Lately it has been colder than forecast. We hit freezing a few times when our lows were forecast to only get into the upper 30s. I was shocked to see frost two mornings in a row when the local news said 38 or 37 for lows. It was a very heavy frost, too. That is how I remember it, at least. This is only for the more recent timeline, though. Usually we don't get as cold as forecast, you are right, but this winter has been very different.

How is this for a shocker. Central's school system is closing school on Tuesday for the children. I guess they don't want them waiting for the buses out in the teens/lower 20s? I am shocked as ice/snow will not be an issue. I didn't think you canceled school for just cold unless it was cold like they see up in North Dakota, which doesn't happen down here. I am curious to see if more schools follow suit. I am a teacher, I wouldn't mind. lol

in terrebonne, i remember us school children enjoying some "freezing" vacation days in the early-mid 1980s. Schools close bc ppl down here aint use to icey conditions on the roads...and schools usually not prepared for very cold temps. And im sure that goes for alot of businesses as well.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That's absurd bigb, about central closing schools. When I was in middle and high school in the 80's and early 90's we didn't get out for any kind of weather. I remember being a sophomore in high school and we had a full day the day Andrew made landfall. Its two days of highs in the upper 30's or low 40's

[BigB0882]

I agree, totally absurd. I am really curious to see if it starts a trend. I hope my students haven't heard about this or tomorrow will be filled with nothing but crying and moaning and kids saying they aren't coming to school on Tuesday. I know it will be cold but if it is that big of a deal then wait until you see the bus to begin running out there, or I don't know, where a heavier coat! I have never ever heard of closing school just because it is cold.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well after all the build up, to no surprise, the low temps forecasted for us tonight have been raised considerably. Now forecasting a low of 24 with some places around south LA not even getting to or below freezing. That is almost a ten degree swing in less than 12 hrs. Not saying they will reach 24 but don't think the duration will be but only a couple of hours vs 10-12 hrs like original thinking. Nor would it surprise to see them go up a few more in the afternoons update.

[vbhoutex]

Woke up to 25f this am, the coldest in a long time here in Houston. I am actually surprised it got that low since we were dealing with clouds as late as 1am this morning. Still seeing some clouds but a lot less than last night. Apparently it cleared out enough or long enough for the temps to start dropping quickly. Not expecting to get out of the low 40s today if we get that high. Tomorrow night I am thinking we will see 20f or possibly lower at my location since the current progs are for 21f officially. Normally we are usually 2-4 degrees below the official. We shall see. Areas in the Northern and Western suburbs will probably see 15f-18f if these progs hold up and the high is still in place over TX.
Wonderful!! ERCOT is now asking us to conserve energy to keep us from having power outages.

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[vbhoutex]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Damaging advective freeze in progress over the north part of the area currently.

Extremely cold tonight with lows from 13-25 across the region

Maximum freeze precautions must be taken for tonight.

Arctic high continues to build southward from the central plains with strong winds having continued all night in the 15-25mph range. 600am wind chills range from an impressive 9 at College Station to 15 at BUSH IAH and 19 at Palacios. 600am temperatures range from 23 at College Station and Huntsville to 27-29 N of US 59 to just above freezing right at the coast.

1040mb arctic high will build deeper into TX today resulting in steadily decreasing winds and gradually clearing skies. Upper level system currently near Baja is attempting to spreading high level moisture across the area and periods of high clouds are possible today into this evening.

Tonight under mainly clear skies, light winds, and extremely low dewpoints a very hard freeze is expected for all locations. Low temperature records from 1912 (College Station) and 1970 (Houston) may be threatened. Expect highs today to only reach the mid to upper 30’s with temperatures quickly falling below freezing at sunset and staying below freezing until late Tuesday morning.

Forecasted lows (Tuesday Morning):
N of HWY 105: 13-17
Conroe Area: 14-16
N of I-10: 17-21
N of US 59: 18-22
Inside Beltway 8: 24-27
N of a line from Victoria to Bay City to Pasadena: 22-28
Coastal beaches (including Galveston Is): 29-32

Temperatures will be at or below freezing for 14-18 hours and at or below 25 for up to 12 hours.

Preparations:

Maximum freeze precautions must be taken for forecasted temperatures of this magnitude including heavily protecting of tropical vegetation and citrus, protection of all exposed outside pipes including sprinkler systems, and sheltering for pets/livestock.

Temperatures below 20 degrees can lead to freezing and bursting of exterior wall/attic pipes in houses…open exterior cabinet doors and keep interior air temperature at or above 70 degrees. If pipes freeze, shut off the water supply to the house from the main shut off and wait for pipes to thaw to determine if they have broken…do not attempt to thaw pipes…this can at times cause more damage.

End of the Week:

Large arctic high will move eastward with onshore winds returning to the area Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will come roaring back into the region Wednesday with rain chances likely from late Wednesday into next weekend as the flow aloft becomes SW and several upper level disturbances move across the region. Widespread rainfall looks likely, but hard to time disturbances make it difficult to pin point the greatest potential period. Could see 1-2 inches of rainfall by the weekend across the region.

[BigB0882]

Cyclone, I am still seeing lows forecast around 20. Where did you get the mid 20s from? It sounds like clouds may linger and keep some of the radiational cooling at bay. There were frozen puddles on the side of the road all over town today. An unusual sight!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Bigb,

It was on baton Rouge's nws site this morning. I posted it on the Texas thread talking to ntxw about it. They have since changed it and dropped it back down to 18. Mobile did the same thing. They were at 11 raised them to 16, now have dropped them back down to 11. Not sure what happened. Will obviously be interested to see what the afternoon crew and discussion say what will happen tonight. Also they have us at 27 tomorrow night and mobile at 18. Short 2 1\2 hr drive for pretty big difference.

[BigB0882]

I think the reason for the difference between us and Mobile tomorrow night is that the High pressure will have moved far enough East of us that we begin experiencing southerly flow which brings the warm air up and over us. It may not be far enough East to give Mobile the same southerly flow before they drop back to the teens.

[Stormnut]

Forecast for Baton Rouge was for sunny skies today.
I'm in prairieville and it is cloudy. Not partly cloudy, not mostly cloudy. Cloudy!

[PTrackerLA]

Forecast high was 36 but it has only reach 33 as of 3pm with mostly cloudy skies now. We'll drop below freezing fairly soon but I don't think we'll get into the teens with all the cirrus streaming out of Mexico. A cold night nevertheless just wish it would snow!

[vbhoutex]

Forecast high was 36 but it has only reach 33 as of 3pm with mostly cloudy skies now. We'll drop below freezing fairly soon but I don't think we'll get into the teens with all the cirrus streaming out of Mexico. A cold night nevertheless just wish it would snow!

Houston forecast high was 39f and we managed about an hour above freezing at 33f from what I can see(at least at my location)and are now back below freezing. Once again it will be interesting to see if we get as low as predicted with the cloud cover, but it did last night so I'm not going to bet against it yet. Wondering/ hoping(?) that the impulse in the RGV area comes our way and gives us a snowprise. Even though we are cloudy we are very dry so it will be hard for anything but virga to happen.

[BigB0882]

Well we are back to freezing in Baton Rouge. Actually, I don't know that we ever got above. The highest I saw when I checked was 32. So, to have a little fun with this I have decided to go out and every hour or so spray down the small tree in our front yard. I wish I had a sprinkler but I don't so I will just do it myself. Hope to get some nice icicles by bed time, should look cool in the morning!

The puddle in our backyard had ice on it when I got home today so either it stayed below freezing or didn't get above long enough to thaw that out. The cloud cover has been a surprise. Might keep temps from the teens tonight, as others have said but should still be well into the 20s. A good snow would be the perfect ending but there just isn't anything out there. Where is our coastal low when we need it?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah I doubt we will get into the teens as well. Nws should have stuck with their numbers from earlier this morning when they had us at 24 who knows maybe the clouds clear out early in the morning and we drop below 20 at 5 or 6. That's usually when we hit the low anyway. Of interesting note is they lowered the highs for tomorrow to 38 and dropped tomorrows nights low to 23. Of course it will be near 70 and rain this weekend and hopefully cold again next week.

[BigB0882]

Project icicle is becoming a success! I spray water on the tree, run inside for a minute and by the time I go back out they are frozen. Now to keep adding to the length! lol