(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[cheezyWXguy]

Evaporative cooling has made some freezing rain events turn into sleet/snow events in our area. I guess it will depend on the the depth of the sub-freezing air.

ya to me...I like icestorms...but they tend to get very severe...personally, my favorite kind of winter storm is when it starts out sleet...gets only about 1/4 to 1/2 in of sleet on the ground..and then we get like 3 in of snow

[Tyler]

Evaporative cooling has made some freezing rain events turn into sleet/snow events in our area. I guess it will depend on the the depth of the sub-freezing air.

The freezing air is very shallow. It probably could be 20 degrees and still freezing rain with this event. Thats how shallow it is.

[aggiecutter]

The 12z EURO spells bigtime trouble for North Texas. It has a 1051mb high centered over Nebraska on saturday with a southwest flow aloft over Texas. Looks like the players are on the field for a bigtime icing event for atleast the northern 3rd of Texas.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.106.gif

[Tyler]

And if it wasn't for that darn ridge in the Gulf, we'd all be experiencing much colder weather and wintry precip.

[Extremeweatherguy]

And if it wasn't for that darn ridge in the Gulf, we'd all be experiencing much colder weather and wintry precip.

Yeah, but the shallow arctic air will still reach us. I think Houston may see their coldest highs since December. I am expecting widespread 40s (for highs) this weekend with clouds and a breeze likely (and also rain). Even if it is not truely ARCTIC..I am still expecting a raw, cold weekend. That is good enough for me...it will at least feel (and look) like winter.

[aggiecutter]

That ridge in the gulf, which showed up on some model runs last week, is what made me bullish on a winterstorm for the southern plains this coming weekend. Pressing, dense cold arctic air against the SE ridge is the recipe for a Northern Texas, Arkansas, Northern Louisiana winter storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

ya...EWG its too bad it doesnt look like yall will get it...anything can change tho...

[Tyler]

And if it wasn't for that darn ridge in the Gulf, we'd all be experiencing much colder weather and wintry precip.

Yeah, but the shallow arctic air will still reach us. I think Houston may see their coldest highs since December. I am expecting widespread 40s (for highs) this weekend with clouds and a breeze likely (and also rain). Even if it is not truely ARCTIC..I am still expecting a raw, cold weekend. That is good enough for me...it will at least feel (and look) like winter.

I'm not going to go as cold as you. I'll say 50s for highs. When the air reaches us, it won't be all that cold. It will knock away the humidity, but will mostly be just like a pacific air mass, due to it's shallow nature.

[Extremeweatherguy]

ya...EWG its too bad it doesnt look like yall will get it...anything can change tho...

Im just hoping that the ridge does not build, that the high is 1065mb, and that a huge swath of moisture streams in off the gulf and into the entire state. Anything can happen...right?

[cheezyWXguy]

ya...EWG its too bad it doesnt look like yall will get it...anything can change tho...

Im just hoping that the ridge does not build, that the high is 1065mb, and that a huge swath of moisture streams in off the gulf and into the entire state. Anything can happen...right?

1065 mb...try 1056...lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

And if it wasn't for that darn ridge in the Gulf, we'd all be experiencing much colder weather and wintry precip.

Yeah, but the shallow arctic air will still reach us. I think Houston may see their coldest highs since December. I am expecting widespread 40s (for highs) this weekend with clouds and a breeze likely (and also rain). Even if it is not truely ARCTIC..I am still expecting a raw, cold weekend. That is good enough for me...it will at least feel (and look) like winter.

I'm not going to go as cold as you. I'll say 50s for highs. When the air reaches us, it won't be all that cold. It will knock away the humidity, but will mostly be just like a pacific air mass, due to it's shallow nature.

I don't know...even the GFS model surface temp. forecast is calling for 45F or below for highs on Sat. and Sun. and with the clouds and rain, I doubt we will get more than a few degrees above our lows. I think this will be colder than a pacific airmass. we'll see though...for all we know, we may both be wrong at it will be 9F with a -5F windchill and heavy snow accumulating to 31". Oh wait...that wouldn't be too bad.

[aggiecutter]

You guys around the austin-san antonio area had better be on the guard. Often the cold dense arctic air has a tendency to go more south than east, particularly with the se ridge.

[cheezyWXguy]

yay! the oz GFS is coming out...hopefully its even colder than the 18z...

[cheezyWXguy]

I think the highs on or sunday are going to hover in mid 30's both days(maybe colder) with a considerabl amount of ice and sleet...not a forecast but and idea

[cheezyWXguy]

this is for DFW^^^

[Tyler]

And if it wasn't for that darn ridge in the Gulf, we'd all be experiencing much colder weather and wintry precip.

Yeah, but the shallow arctic air will still reach us. I think Houston may see their coldest highs since December. I am expecting widespread 40s (for highs) this weekend with clouds and a breeze likely (and also rain). Even if it is not truely ARCTIC..I am still expecting a raw, cold weekend. That is good enough for me...it will at least feel (and look) like winter.

I'm not going to go as cold as you. I'll say 50s for highs. When the air reaches us, it won't be all that cold. It will knock away the humidity, but will mostly be just like a pacific air mass, due to it's shallow nature.

I don't know...even the GFS model surface temp. forecast is calling for 45F or below for highs on Sat. and Sun. and with the clouds and rain, I doubt we will get more than a few degrees above our lows. I think this will be colder than a pacific airmass. we'll see though...for all we know, we may both be wrong at it will be 9F with a -5F windchill and heavy snow accumulating to 31". Oh wait...that wouldn't be too bad.

Are you sure? Surface temps look a bit warmer than 12z on the 18z, and 12z MOS had us in the 50s... Perhaps I am misreading something. Which hour are surface temperatures into the 40s?

[Extremeweatherguy]

And if it wasn't for that darn ridge in the Gulf, we'd all be experiencing much colder weather and wintry precip.

Yeah, but the shallow arctic air will still reach us. I think Houston may see their coldest highs since December. I am expecting widespread 40s (for highs) this weekend with clouds and a breeze likely (and also rain). Even if it is not truely ARCTIC..I am still expecting a raw, cold weekend. That is good enough for me...it will at least feel (and look) like winter.

I'm not going to go as cold as you. I'll say 50s for highs. When the air reaches us, it won't be all that cold. It will knock away the humidity, but will mostly be just like a pacific air mass, due to it's shallow nature.

I don't know...even the GFS model surface temp. forecast is calling for 45F or below for highs on Sat. and Sun. and with the clouds and rain, I doubt we will get more than a few degrees above our lows. I think this will be colder than a pacific airmass. we'll see though...for all we know, we may both be wrong at it will be 9F with a -5F windchill and heavy snow accumulating to 31". Oh wait...that wouldn't be too bad.

Are you sure? Surface temps look a bit warmer than 12z on the 18z, and 12z MOS had us in the 50s... Perhaps I am misreading something. Which hour are surface temperatures into the 40s?

I was looking at the GFS 3 hr. surface temp. 5 degree interval forecast on accuweather.com professional models. The warmest the model showed us getting was 45F both days. I would post an image, but accuweather.com professional will not let me copy and paste images. What I was looking at was basically a 5 degree interval map for the southern plains every 3 hrs. for 15 days. This was for the 18Z run of the GFS.

[Tyler]

On the 0z GFS, the cold air may come a bit farther south on this run, as the high is already at least 5MB stronger at 54 hours than the previous run. Air in Canada is also a tad bit colder. -32 850 temps! It would be December 1989 down here if the pattern were to set up right... But, its not going to.

[Tyler]

I was looking at the GFS 3 hr. surface temp. 5 degree interval forecast on accuweather.com professional models. The warmest the model showed us getting was 45F both days. I would post an image, but accuweather.com professional will not let me copy and paste images. What I was looking at was basically a 5 degree interval map for the southern plains every 3 hrs. for 15 days.

Oh, ok, I got ya. I don't have Accuweather Pro, so thats I why I don't see the 40s as surface temps. Interesting, and thanks for the info!

[cheezyWXguy]

God!!! what does that add up to here, 1 1/2 inches of sleet and temps in the low 30's as highs?