Winter Weather in the deep south thread

[tampastorm]

Cold here in Tampa!!!

Wed January 2nd!
Mostly Sunny
High 56°F
Low 31°F

Precip. 10 %

[JonathanBelles]

My guess for here on Wednesday is a high of 57° and a low of 37-38°. These numbers are subject to change as we get closer to the date.

[Eyewall]

Ocean effect snow on E Coast of FL? Ive seen this a few times...cold!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif

sorry but thats an 850mb map. so there would be no snow happening there
ya'll should watch the surface maps for snow chances not 850

[JonathanBelles]

NWS Ruskin seems to be more concerned with wind chills than the actual temps right now.

This seems weird that we may be tieing a record high today (80) and going for a record low on Wed (42 in some parts of St. Pete)

[adamh1181]

LONG TERM...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF
PRECIP LATE TUE BEFORE ARCTIC OUTBREAK ARRIVES TUE NIGHT. WED
SHOULD BE A RAW DAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES. WED
NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WINDS
POSSIBLY DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR SE GA AND THE N SUWANNEE VALLEY.
RECORD LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY IF 12Z GFS MOS NUMBERS PAN OUT. FOR
NOW...FCST MINS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT GFS
HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THU MORNING TEMPS FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. EXPECT A HARD FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE INLAND
AREAS...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY TO SE COAST. MAY ALSO NEED WIND
CHILL PRODUCTS FOR WED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.


from the Jax NWS, looks to be cold but mainly dry.

Forcast for my house 30 miles northwest of Jacksonville

Tues Night, Low near 33, 30% chance of rain
Wed High near 51
Wed Night lows near 22

[Opal storm]

Haven't heard anything about snow but it's going to be amazingly cold early next week. Our local met has us getting down to 24!!! That would mean upper teens for areas north of I-10.

[Brent]

Haven't heard anything about snow but it's going to be amazingly cold early next week. Our local met has us getting down to 24!!! That would mean upper teens for areas north of I-10.

Local met has 20/37 here on Wednesday(the coldest day).

Looks like after this cold snap, the following week will be extremely warm.

[JonathanBelles]

I'm gonna have to pop down my numbers to a high of 56 and a low of 35 here. Many agencies are below that forecast low, which is the reason for the lowing of the low.

[Sean in New Orleans]

NWS in New Orleans is now taking more notice of the cooler air and may drop lows lower if the models hold:

LONG TERM...
LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL HAVE TAKEN MOST OF
THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ANY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
TO BE RATHER LIMITED IN SCOPE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.

MAIN EFFECT OF TUESDAY`S FRONT WILL BE TO USHER IN MUCH COOLER
AIR. GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE ON MONDAY.
NORTHERN PORTIONS NEAR MCB LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME CONCERNS THAT WE MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND IF LATER RUNS KEEP MAGNITUDE OF
TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN PLACE...FORECAST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED SOME MORE IN LATER PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi thinks that Orlando, FL will have the potential to hit 28F during this cold snap. Brr..

BTW - - He also thinks the local forecasts are still too warm from Florida to Texas.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Still not even a freeze for New Orleans, yet..forecasting 35F for Wed. night. This is a Winter cold front...nothing unusual, at all, about this event that I see. We'll have colder than this later on in January and February, IMO. It's Winter, now...we're supposed to get cold. This is something that we all get every Winter.

[HarlequinBoy]

Well, there definitely isn't any snow forecast, but a high only in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday is going to be very chilly!!

[MGC]

A winter without a freeze in New Orleans is not uncommon. I remember several growing up there. My brother hated it because he had to cut grass all winter. It does look to be a rather cold couple of nights ahead of us. I'll have to wrap up the citrus trees really good.....MGC

[Ed Mahmoud]

A winter without a freeze in New Orleans is not uncommon. I remember several growing up there. My brother hated it because he had to cut grass all winter. It does look to be a rather cold couple of nights ahead of us. I'll have to wrap up the citrus trees really good.....MGC

We had a freeze already in HOU, and my lawn is still green. I did water back during the dry spell back in November, and put down Scott's Southern Lawn Pre-Winter feed.


Almost long enough to mow...

[jdray]

Gotta love the AFD out of JAX.

Wednesday is going to hurt with the wind/cold. 20+ mph winds with low 20's temps....

I would not be surprised to see single digit wind chill temps.

000
FXUS62 KJAX 300227
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
927 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007

...ARCTIC OUTBREAK EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF COMING WEEK...

.PUBLIC...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...MAINLY COUNTIES NORTH OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 84. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS
AREA...AND ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY HOLD ACROSS THIS
AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY WEST OF JAX CWA. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH DYNAMICS
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SEA FOG WILL AGAIN
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY LOWERING TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. DENSE SEA FOG IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTLINE.

UPDATES ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TNGT...WITH
FOCUS MORE ON LOW CLOUDS ACRS SRN GA WITH MORE FLOW JUST ABOVE
GROUND...AND FOCUS ON BOTH FOG/LOW CLOUDS ACRS NE FL. SATELLITE
OBS INDICATE TWO DISTANCE AREAS OF SEA FOG...OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WITH LARGER FOG BANK OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/APALACHEE BAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
DENSE FOG YET AGAIN IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...INITIALLY AT SITE
KSSI...WITH NORTHEAST FLORIDA SITES MAINLY AFT 08Z. SHOULD SEE VSBYS
IMPROVE 13-15Z SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...OBS INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION
OF AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG IMPACTING THE LOCAL WATERS. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND THIS FEATURE WILL MEANDER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
PRIOR AS FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS...WITH NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE
OFFSHORE LEGS. AS ALLUDED BY EARLIER SHIFTS...STRONGER FRONT WILL
ARRIVE MON NGT/TUE BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS
WED/THU...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (PER PREVIOUS SHIFT)...MIN RH`S SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES UNTIL AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. MODELS
SUGGEST MIN RH`S WILL DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS WED/THU AFTNS.
GENERALLY DRY SOIL/VEGETATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL FROM PASSING FRONTS LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SRN GA AND NRN FL.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH FL WHERE CLOUD COVER IS LESS. FOG COULD CONTINUE INTO
MID MORNING SUNDAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY
REMAIN NW OF THE AREA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE
BNDRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (A 40-50 KT
850 MB JET) JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LATE SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE CWA WITH
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD.

LONG TERM...(TUE-SAT)...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A FEW
CLOUDS AND SHIFT TO BRISK NWLY WINDS ON TUES. ARCTIC COLD OUTBREAK
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO UPR 20S TO
LOW 30S. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FOLLOWS ON WED PRODUCING WINDY
CONDS AND A RAW FEELING AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN NE FL.
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES WITH A VENGEANCE WED NIGHT WITH A HARD
FREEZE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS DIP INTO LOW 20S EXCEPT IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 30. MAY ALSO NEED TO WIND CHILL
PRODUCTS FOR WED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED OVER SUWANNEE VALLEY AGAIN THURS
NIGHT AND THEREAFTER CONDS IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ELY FLOW BRINGING MORE MODERATE TEMPS.

&&

$$
ECZ

[icicle]

What a good waste of cold air. Its either cold and dry here, or warm and wet.....sigh.

[Sean in New Orleans]

A winter without a freeze in New Orleans is not uncommon. I remember several growing up there. My brother hated it because he had to cut grass all winter. It does look to be a rather cold couple of nights ahead of us. I'll have to wrap up the citrus trees really good.....MGC

That is not true. A Winter without a freeze in New Orleans is rare and almost unheard of....unless you live in lower Plaquemines Parish. Your information is not correct.

[jinftl]

Definitely a cold snap...but nothing unremarkable for winter, and check out the forecast temps by next weekend....mild again!!!

NWS Forecast
Issued by: National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Last Update: 1:15 pm CST Dec 30, 2007

New Year's Day: Sunny, with a high near 58. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 49.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 56.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 66.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Saturday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71.

[Opal storm]

Wow, weather channel only has us reaching 44 on Wednesday. Doesn't look like the snow event will pan out, but quite a impressive arctic blast.

Still not even a freeze for New Orleans, yet..forecasting 35F for Wed. night. This is a Winter cold front...nothing unusual, at all, about this event that I see. We'll have colder than this later on in January and February, IMO. It's Winter, now...we're supposed to get cold. This is something that we all get every Winter.

That's probably because New Orleans is further south and the heat coming off the surrounding waters will keep the temps from falling as far.

[Sean in New Orleans]

More out of New Orleans NWS:

... A hard freeze is possible Tuesday night away from tidal lakes...
... A light freeze is possible in the New Orleans Metro area...

A very cold air mass situated near the Canadian border is poised
to move southward into the Gulf states on New Year's Day. Strong
and cold high pressure will build into much of the nation's
midsection with some of the coldest air of the season expected to
spread across areas east of The Rockies. Strong north winds will
accompany the cold temperatures to provide uncomfortable wind
chills Tuesday and Tuesday night.

At this time... it appears a hard freeze will take place across
southern Mississippi... the Florida and river parishes of southeast
Louisiana Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Low
temperatures Tuesday night are expected to fall into the mid 20s.
A light freeze is anticipated in the New Orleans area and
locations south of the tidal lakes Wednesday morning.

Residents of the area should prepare for hard freeze conditions
for a significant duration. It appears temperatures may remain
below freezing in the interior portions of the region for 8 to 12
hours. In light freeze areas... only one or two hours of freeze
conditions may result.

Use the next couple of days to check on exposed water pipes and
wrap them if necessary. Plan on covering tender vegetation or
moving potted plants into warmer locations before sunset Tuesday.
Have a plan in place to check on elderly and persons of poor
health as colder conditions pose a greater health risk for those
individuals. Warm settings for pets and livestock will also need to be
considered. Visitors traveling into the area for New Year's Day activities
should pack accordingly for unusually cold air for this region.