Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Throckmorton]

I think the storm between 5th-8th is legit and there will be some cold. Even more cold when the PNA transitions from + to -, likely middle January to early Feb.

I'm hoping even with the niña, the cold can last longer than most people think, especially with a less negative pdo and possibly a pv split SSWE event

If it’s an actual split and not a stretch then oh boy.

A split is not in the forecasts. Nor is a sudden stratospheric warming. Stretches are in them, however.

[Throckmorton]

I read on Twitter that if this cold outbreak verifies, it will be in top 2 coldest januaries on record Not sure I agree with that

For which locations?

For Austin Camp Mabry, the coldest Januaries on record by average temperature are as follows (112 Januaries with complete data):

(1).....39.3°...1930
(2).....40.4°...1979
(3).....40.5°...1940
(4).....40.7°...1978
(5).....41.5°...1977
(6).....43.2°...1948
(7).....43.5°...1963
(8).....43.6°...1924
(9).....43.9°...1970
(10)...44.0°...1985

1930 was particularly noteworthy for having 11 consecutive days of 10° or greater negative anomalies. It also had low temperatures of 4, 10, 14, 14, 18, 18, and 19 degrees plus five days of 32° or colder high temperatures. Only 4 days had above average temperatures. Jan. 18th is tied for the third–coldest day on record. No January since 1991 is among the 22 coldest on record. With the current background climate, challenging 1930 would be unlikely.

For Texas as a whole, January 1930 was the second–coldest month on record – behind only January 1940. January 18, 1930, was the fifteenth–coldest day on record for Texas.

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro AI now caving towards the other models, even has the storm in the Jan 7-8th time frame

[Quixotic]

Latest Euro AI now caving towards the other models, even has the storm in the Jan 7-8th time frame

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/conus/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1735408800/1736316000-ycitOLrP28E.png

Coastal storm. Holy moly.

[Stratton23]

Therockmorton looks more like a split than a stretch to me

[Brent]

From a met here in Tulsa



And OKC

[Cpv17]

Therockmorton looks more like a split than a stretch to me

Yeah, I posted a link I found on X yesterday that showed a split being forecasted from the Euro. Judah commented on it and said it was too far out to be excited about it, but it did show a split in the stratosphere.

[Ntxw]

I don’t see this reloading as depicted unless we get cross polar flow

The ensembles reload Canada as the jet retraction continues. That's still expected, and then we move towards more canonical Nina for Feb. Jan 1985 had a second blast much further west (the one that was big for TX) in Feb. So there is some merit it could happen if going by pattern recognition.

We shall see. 1985 and 1977 are all timers. 1977 looks more like the models because of the Greenland block. 85 was a series of transient bitter cold until the beginning of February which almost broke the December 1983 hours below freezing. Lofty company.

1977 had a persistent Baja low, thanks to the weak El Nino.

[Throckmorton]

Therockmorton looks more like a split than a stretch to me

Yeah, I posted a link I found on X yesterday that showed a split being forecasted from the Euro. Judah commented on it and said it was too far out to be excited about it, but it did show a split in the stratosphere.

Here is a good source for the ECMWF's forecast for the stratospheric polar vortex:

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_strat.php

[snownado]

Thankfully the extreme cold model runs are still way out there...plenty of time for things to change. If they do happen to verify, we would likely see rolling blackouts again, just like in February 2021. ERCOT already warned they would happen if we see another cold air outbreak. No thanks, I'll pass...that was horrible.

You had *ROLLING* blackouts in February 2021?

Because a lot of us nearly froze to death after 48-72 hours straight without power...

[Ntxw]

ICON is now in range. We can start to see the key players load up north. 1060mb over the Arctic basin/Beaufort region and cold loaded in Canada. Trough is starting to dig at the end of the run. Remarkable the similarities in these models leading up to it.

[Throckmorton]

Thankfully the extreme cold model runs are still way out there...plenty of time for things to change. If they do happen to verify, we would likely see rolling blackouts again, just like in February 2021. ERCOT already warned they would happen if we see another cold air outbreak. No thanks, I'll pass...that was horrible.

You had *ROLLING* blackouts in February 2021?

Because a lot of us nearly froze to death after 48-72 hours straight without power...

Exactly. There were many people who died in their homes from hypothermia.

[Brent]

On TV very vague but mentions much colder air(didn't mention dangerous like the other one) is possible and that probably will be snow somewhere

[Harp.1]

This run so far… ugh

[Brent]

The GFS is all over the place

Watch the ensembles...

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 dont worry about one particular model run, with this kind of setup, its almost expected the models are gonna flip flop around

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 dont worry about one particular model run, with this kind of setup, its almost expected the models are gonna flip flop around

Oh, I know. It’s just that last run had given me snow here in Louisiana!

[Brent]

There's been EPS members with snow in Florida I don't think you'll have to worry about at least having some support for it. I bet there's ensemble members showing it there

Even New Orleans had a few at 12z

[Stratton23]

Significant winter storm on the 00z Euro from oklahoma all the way to houston, ugly ice storm in houston

[Brent]

A foot of snow in Northern Louisiana on the Euro. Snow into the Gulf

Historic potential for sure IF everything lines up. I stress that even up here I'm not 100 percent convinced it snows yet although it's clear the cold is coming