Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Tireman4]

I'm seeing rain for Dallas and snow in Austin based on the Portastorm model.

According the Portastorm model, I am seeing 12 inches for Austin....5 for Houston and cold rain for Dallas....

That's right, Tireman! You have done a fine job of reading the 12z Portastorm run.

Thank you sir. I have just graduated from the Portastorm School of Meteorology. The motto is, 'You want snow, you got it.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Thats awesomeness on a stick Porta, nature is openly mocking you, lol. Maybe that football will turn into a big yellow blob, huh?

[Portastorm]

Hilarious! Nice ones, you guys!!

Hey, I hope y'all see some snow in DFW. Post photos so those of us who get zippo can live vicariously through you.

[iorange55]

LOok! The GFS ingested that data this morning! It does look like a football.

That is a little strange, lol. Looks like it's about to be kicked as well.

[Tireman4]

LOok! The GFS ingested that data this morning! It does look like a football.

That is a little strange, lol. Looks like it's about to be kicked as well.

Wow...you guys are brutal....just brutal...

[Ntxw]

Don't worry we love Portastorm! His sacrifice for snow has shoved it north to I-20 the past few years sharing the wealth. Seriously, I think you should keep an eye out tomorrow especially during the mid morning hours Portastorm.

For the rest of us more fortunate ones, NAM

[srainhoutx]

Impact Weather has just issued a video regarding the upcoming Winter Storm...

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweather

[Portastorm]

Obviously my only hope is for the upper low to cruise right over our area ... the soundings from the 12z models aren't very encouraging. But of course I will be watching and keeping everyone posted.

I have higher hopes for the mid-week disturbance to be honest. I still think that one might provide a few pleasant surprises for areas from Waco south.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Gale Warnings for Coastal and Offshore Waters

[gboudx]

Well this kind of sucks for us just north of DFW. It sucks to see the snow totals 4 to 6 inches in northeast Texas but us only 1 inch. Hopefully something will change!?

I feel your pain. Last winter while you guys to the north and northwest had a nice white Christmas, us folks in the east got a rock. We had some really light snow which wasn't even enough to accumulate in the crevices on the roofs.

[Ntxw]

The Canadian is really aggressive with the cold air. Perhaps interests for those in the northern areas of HGX. The midweek system for it has snow from Waco northwards.

[serenata09]

Honestly, if I just see some of the white stuff fall I'd be overjoyed!

[iorange55]

The Canadian is really aggressive with the cold air. Perhaps interests for those in the northern areas of HGX.

I was closely watching the Canadian just cause it seems to be a tad colder usually. Too bad it's not a completely trusted model.

[Dustan78]

Well this kind of sucks for us just north of DFW. It sucks to see the snow totals 4 to 6 inches in northeast Texas but us only 1 inch. Hopefully something will change!?

I feel your pain. Last winter while you guys to the north and northwest had a nice white Christmas, us folks in the east got a rock. We had some really light snow which wasn't even enough to accumulate in the crevices on the roofs.

Yeah but you guys got a storm at the end of the year, and us here in FW got nothing! I think it all worked out in the end though, I was not complaining, The Feb storm was on my birthday, what a great gift that was!

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Look at this!


FXUS64 KFWD 081736 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.AVIATION...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS AND THE LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY NEEDS TO BE STRESSED. POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SE AZ AND IS MOVING EASTWARD. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM VFR CLOUD BASES BEGINNING
AROUND 4Z IN WACO AND 8Z FOR THE METROPLEX. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND COOL...CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL LOWER QUICKLY.
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND 10 OR 11Z AND IFR SHORTLY AFTER.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IN THE METROPLEX
AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF RASN AFTER 15Z AND WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AFTER 17Z. THIS FORECAST IS ALL DEPENDENT
ON A THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND AS OF
NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES WERE
TO NUDGE WARMER BY JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE THE PRECIP TYPE
WOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID. GIVEN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM...THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS
THERE AND WANTED TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME IN THE TAF PACKAGE.
FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TWEAK THE TIMING AND INTENSITY...OR
COULD EVEN TAKE IT COMPLETELY OUT IF THE THERMAL PROFILES WERE TO
WARM.

[Tireman4]

Obviously my only hope is for the upper low to cruise right over our area ... the soundings from the 12z models aren't very encouraging. But of course I will be watching and keeping everyone posted.

I have higher hopes for the mid-week disturbance to be honest. I still think that one might provide a few pleasant surprises for areas from Waco south.

I agree for you and (who knows) Houston. It just depends on how much moisture can come from the system that will cross the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The cold air will be there.

[utweather]

Obviously my only hope is for the upper low to cruise right over our area ... the soundings from the 12z models aren't very encouraging. But of course I will be watching and keeping everyone posted.

I have higher hopes for the mid-week disturbance to be honest. I still think that one might provide a few pleasant surprises for areas from Waco south.

You never know, this snippet from Dodge City NWS last night..

"THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
DODGE CITY FORECAST FOR THIS STORM. THIS WAS A GOOD CALL...BUT
THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW. THAT BEING
SAID...THE STORM IS STILL TWO DAYS OUT AND MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
MAY STILL BE REALIZED FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS
SUGGEST...WHICH WOULD PUT MUCH MORE OF THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA
IN 6 INCHES OR GREATER SNOWFALL."

Whats amazing is that is so calm and sunny outside right now. Sure to catch a lot of folks offguard. Good news all around though is that a nice snow pack is forecasted to be laid down from the north pole to somewhere in Texas. Should keep things quite chilly for a while:-)

[Dallasaggie01]

I'm still trying to learn these types of graphs, is the green line the precip line. Im assuming you want below 0 the whole column down, but what are the other two (blue/red)?

Just focus on the red and green lines. The red line is the temperature curve. The green line is the dew point temperature curve. Where the two are within 5C of each other you can identify a cloud layer. Where they're real close together, you identify precipitation. In the graphic above, the red line (temperature) is left of the 0C diagonal line and the green line is right next to it, indicating precip with an air column below freezing (snow). Don't worry about that tiny are of above-freezing air right at the surface. Surface temps will drop some when the snow starts falling.

Thanks!

I'm hoping this is one of those events that you think you'll wake up to rain waiting on the change-over, but its already happened hours before...

This is not a forecast but it seems what the local guys are saying now, I'm thinking anyone east of I-35 should see accumulations, which is the opposite of what usually happens in the metroplex.

[serenata09]

... ...



Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

TXZ093-102>104-117>119-131>134-090200-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WS.A.0001.110109T0900Z-110110T0600Z/
GRAYSON-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...
GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...
WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS
1159 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY FLUID SITUATION AND MANY
FACTORS MAY CHANGE THE FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT IF
TEMPERATURES WERE TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...NO SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AND AROUND THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PORTIONS OR ALL OF THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE
NOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
PERSONS WITH PLANNED TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
INTO LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES.

$$

[txagwxman]

ECMWF hair warmer vs the 00z for tomorrow's event...going to be so close. But I think it will happen for DFW / TYR / GGG.