Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Its not very often you see the euro this aggressive with a cold air outbreak and potentially a significant winter storm ( thats a big if though)

[Harp.1]

Can you post the maps please? Thanks.

[Brent]

One of the all time Euro snow maps just east of us
I mean a foot of snow from Louisiana up the east coast is insane

This would require an absolutely perfect setup though to happen

[Ntxw]

A foot of snow in Northern Louisiana on the Euro. Snow into the Gulf

Historic potential for sure IF everything lines up. I stress that even up here I'm not 100 percent convinced it snows yet although it's clear the cold is coming

Yeah the cold is modeled. Just where gets the worst. I want to see the vorticity dig to the southwest and just pump moisture up. Of course we won't see something like that until much closer range like under 144 hours.

Synoptically something like the Euro at 500mb is a little more realistic than the wonky pieces GFS breaks it up into.

[Harp.1]

Thank you

[TropicalTundra]

Don’t know if it counts for something but a lot of the weather apps have begun placing teens and single digits on the forecasts for areas around DFW and elsewhere.

I let some people know ahead of time what’s likely going down Jan 5th-8th. Do not want a repeat of Uri.

[Ntxw]

Still plenty of blocking on the Euro after the cold blast.

[Brent]

Don’t know if it counts for something but a lot of the weather apps have begun placing teens and single digits on the forecasts for areas around DFW and elsewhere.

I let some people know ahead of time what’s likely going down Jan 5th-8th. Do not want a repeat of Uri.

Yeah I've seen three posts up here from mets tonight about it. One outright said dangerous cold which in January is gonna be brutal cold. This is our coldest time of year on average coming up in the next 2 to 3 weeks

[Throckmorton]

Some GEFS mean temperature forecasts for Austin and some areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 9th (12/29, 00Z run):

52 (64)–30 (22)...Amarillo
59 (71)–37 (28)...Austin Camp Mabry
52 (65)–35 (28)...Dallas
46 (62)–29 (19)...Oklahoma City
42 (59)–26 (16)...Tulsa

[Throckmorton]

Coldest day of the year, based on average daily temperatures:

34.7°...Dec. 31...Amarillo
35.5°...Jan. 7.....Tulsa
36.2°...Jan. 7.....Oklahoma City
44.1°...Jan. 7.....Dallas
49.0°...Jan. 2.....Austin Camp Mabry

[Ntxw]

On a side note here is why I believe it is later in January or early February that we will likely see a more direct cold dislodge in our region (not to negate anything early month.)

The cold neutral/weak-mod Nina that happens to have very good +PNA such as 1985 and Feb 2021 type events that eventually went to -PNA. It just happens because eventually the Nina factor shows up along with similarities to MJO movement. It is during the transition that severe cold dives down more direct into the plains. That is forecasted by longer term guidance. Including GEFS and Euro weeklies.







It's wild but +PNA really isn't supposed to happen to this extent during -ENSO and is a correlation, but it is. And like in the past when the shift occurs it can pour.

Edit: this also occured in 2010-2011 (super bowl week) where +PNA early winter went -PNA in a Nina.

[Gotwood]

On a side note here is why I believe it is later in January or early February that we will likely see a more direct cold dislodge in our region (not to negate anything early month.)

The cold neutral/weak-mod Nina that happens to have very good +PNA such as 1985 and Feb 2021 type events that eventually went to -PNA. It just happens because eventually the Nina factor shows up along with similarities to MJO movement. It is during the transition that severe cold dives down more direct into the plains. That is forecasted by longer term guidance. Including GEFS and Euro weeklies.

https://i.imgur.com/akTZs9j.png

https://i.imgur.com/S2mUnZf.gif

https://i.imgur.com/pG1oH2T.gif

It's wild but +PNA really isn't supposed to happen to this extent during -ENSO and is a correlation, but it is. And like in the past when the shift occurs it can pour.

Edit: this also occured in 2010-2011 (super bowl week) where +PNA early winter went -PNA in a Nina.

I’m supposed to be doing an outdoor adventure at the beginning of February so I’m sure it will be bitterly cold then.

[Cpv17]

On a side note here is why I believe it is later in January or early February that we will likely see a more direct cold dislodge in our region (not to negate anything early month.)

The cold neutral/weak-mod Nina that happens to have very good +PNA such as 1985 and Feb 2021 type events that eventually went to -PNA. It just happens because eventually the Nina factor shows up along with similarities to MJO movement. It is during the transition that severe cold dives down more direct into the plains. That is forecasted by longer term guidance. Including GEFS and Euro weeklies.

https://i.imgur.com/akTZs9j.png

https://i.imgur.com/S2mUnZf.gif

https://i.imgur.com/pG1oH2T.gif

It's wild but +PNA really isn't supposed to happen to this extent during -ENSO and is a correlation, but it is. And like in the past when the shift occurs it can pour.

Edit: this also occured in 2010-2011 (super bowl week) where +PNA early winter went -PNA in a Nina.

What worries me about this is the other teleconnections not lining up when the PNA goes more towards neutral or slightly negative.

[Throckmorton]

Some EPS mean temperature forecasts for Austin and some areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 9th (12/29, 00Z run):

44 (59)–26 (10)...Amarillo
51 (67)–33 (22)...Austin Camp Mabry
42 (61)–28 (17)...Dallas
34 (53)–20 (03)...Oklahoma City
30 (51)–18 (02)...Tulsa

[HockeyTx82]

Good morning.

So did the models go full torch or did you all finally get some sleep?

Not seeing much posting overnight.

[Brent]

Good morning.

So did thr models go full torch or did you all finally get some sleep?

Not seeing much posting overnight.

The Euro had a huge storm. Give me that over the GFS any day

But nothing has changed with the ensembles. It's definitely gonna get cold it's just how cold precip is always gonna be a question

[wxman22]

0Z Euro for context.

[Brent]

The Euro was very eye opening I mean yes it was better east of here to be fair but it does show the historic potential IF everything lines up right and nobody can say for certain either way this far out

There's more big members on the EPS here than there have been. Also most of them are next Sunday into Monday

[orangeblood]

Much better consensus on a Major Arctic Outbreak heading to the lower 48. The ensembles are in really good agreement the core of the cold will be centered towards the Ohio Valley so now it’s a matter of how expansive this air gets. Euro Ens and GEPS a little more tightly wound with the cold while the GEFS trending towards a much more expansive look into the southern plains.

Euro Ens


Canadian Ens


GEFS

[HockeyTx82]

Much better consensus on a Major Arctic Outbreak heading to the lower 48. The ensembles are in really good agreement the core of the cold will be centered towards the Ohio Valley so now it’s a matter of how expansive this air gets. Euro Ens and GEPS a little more tightly wound with the cold while the GEFS trending towards a much more expansive look into the southern plains.

Euro Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735430400/1736683200-R7YFMB6r3t8.png

Canadian Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735430400/1736683200-yoJAIl3IX8Y.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735452000/1736683200-RhoatbLgzUI.png

So would that be considered model agreement? And what kind of temperatures would we be looking at for North Texas