Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

cctxhurricanewatcher · #1242 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 9:13 am

jinftl wrote:

Ed Mahmoud · #1243 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 9:26 am

Low resolution diplay graphics available for free from what I understand is the global with the highest horizontal and vertical resolution. (BTW, little Belch kids in Bruxxelles get to see all nature of NAM and GFS products for free on the interweb, it would be only fair us American kids see better free products from the Euros).

Ok, rant over.

But relative humidities, 850 mb temps and thicknesses would seem to imply wintery weather possible in EWG land

Hotlinked image, will change in 18 hours...

Ed Mahmoud · #1244 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 2:16 pm

Snow cover GFS loop does show exciting snow hitting Los Angeles on March 7th, but no snowcover for Oklahoma or Texas at all in the next two weeks.

Extremeweatherguy · #1245 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Mar 01, 2009 1:01 pm

12z GFS looks interesting for the week of the 9th...

SURFACE
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

850MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif

#1246 Postby **gboudx** » Sun Mar 01, 2009 10:40 pm

I hope at least the precip part of those model runs is correct. It's way too frickin dry.

Extremeweatherguy · #1247 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:46 pm

iorange55 · #1248 Postby **iorange55** » Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:53 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 00z GFS continues to look "interesting"...

SURFACE
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

850MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif

finally something that looks mildly interesting, looks like one last big cool down before the spring? hopefully. I'm not ready for all the heat, this winter hasn't been so great.

Ed Mahmoud · #1249 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Mar 02, 2009 9:33 am

Light frost on the windshield here in Northern suburbs of HOU/IAH metro area, as Ole Man Winter slow to relax his icy grip on Texas!

Extremeweatherguy · #1250 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Mar 02, 2009 11:36 pm

Tonight's 00z GFS continues to look somewhat interesting. May be some light snow for Oklahoma mid/late next week?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif

Extremeweatherguy · #1251 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Mar 03, 2009 12:51 pm

The 12z GFS continues to show a possible brief burst of winter precipitation for Oklahoma mid next week...

SURFACE
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

850MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif

...Looks like rain/storms transitioning to some sleet/snow on the backside.

Extremeweatherguy · #1252 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 8:21 am

The latest GFS runs (00z and 06z) now move the moisture out before it gets cold enough for snow. typical.. :roll:

Ed Mahmoud · #1253 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 9:04 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The latest GFS runs (00z and 06z) now move the moisture out before it gets cold enough for snow. typical..

Getting to be Spring, but don't give up yet, remember the North Texas Easter Snow Miracle.

OKC just outside the Day 5 Severe risk area, and it looks like there could be more than 1 event late weekend to mid week.

If you think of hail as really big sleet (I know, produced in totally different ways), well, Winter can last in Oklahoma into June.

#1254 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 9:37 am

Let's call this European 0z run the "Scully/Mulder 'I Want to Believe' Model Run" ... check out the big, nasty, bitterly cold arrow of air pointing due south.

#1255 Postby **srainhoutx** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 9:44 am

Portastorm wrote:Let's call this European 0z run the "Scully/Mulder 'I Want to Believe' Model Run" ... check out the big, nasty, bitterly cold arrow of air pointing due south.

I've been "hinting" locally about this Portastorm. One last Artic Blast may be in the offing. Models have suggested a 1050mb high pressure and a significant front Mid Month :wink:

Ed Mahmoud · #1256 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 10:18 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Let's call this European 0z run the "Scully/Mulder 'I Want to Believe' Model Run" ... check out the big, nasty, bitterly cold arrow of air pointing due south.

I've been "hinting" locally about this Portastorm. One last Artic Blast may be in the offing. Models have suggested a 1050mb high pressure and a significant front Mid Month

JB is talking about this, and this looks favorable for a shot of abnormally cold air, but the moisture seems to be missing, and I don't see the fun in college kids from Minnesota or wherever coming to South Padre Island for fifty-something degree days.

Extremeweatherguy · #1257 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:21 am

6z GFS = Big Oklahoma winter storm next Wednesday night into Thursday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_156l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif

The OKC NWS mentions this possibility in their latest AFD too.

#1258 Postby **srainhoutx** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:40 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:6z GFS = Big Oklahoma winter storm next Wednesday night into Thursday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_156l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif

The OKC NWS mentions this possibility in their latest AFD too.

I love the AFD Statement "from the 90's to winter weather". I also suspect this event will lead to some severe weather along with a Major Winter Storm across the Southern Plains into the OV. Something to keep an eye on.

HPC Prelim mentions the Cold IAr again this morning...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
859 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2009

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 10 2009 - 12Z FRI MAR 13 2009

MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENING AND PROGRESSING DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET BECOMES BETTER DEFINED THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF SHOW VERY STRONG BLOCKING WORKING INTO SOUTHERN GREENLAND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY PORTENDING ANOTHER COLD SNAP FOR
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION.

...EAST-CENTRAL US...

MODEL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN ABOVE NORMAL SPREAD OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY TOPPING A FLAT LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE UPPER MS VLY
SUN...THEN MOVING INTO THE NERN US BY MON. THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DEEP TROUGH FORCES THE LOW LEVEL WAVE TO SHEAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS SHOWN IN THE 12-00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. THESE SOLUTIONS WERE
BLENDED FOR DAY THREE. IT SEEMS THAT SUCH ROBUST MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IN THE OUTLIER 00 UTC GFS SOLUTION OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY IS UNLIKELY...DUE THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A FLAT
LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION.

UPSTREAM...MORE WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS STILL FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF A MID MS VLY CYCLONE TUE 10
MAR. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE NARROWED THE SPREAD ON TIMING
THIS ENERGY. A BLEND OF THE 12Z/05 AND 00Z/06 DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF....00Z/06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND 12/05 UTC ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED TUE-WED GET A CONSENSUS CYCLONE TRACK. THE
12Z/05-00Z/06 ECMWF...12Z/05 ECMWF MEAN...00Z/06 GEFS MEAN...AND
00Z 06 GFS SHOW A STRONG COLD HIGH BUILDING FIRST SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WED...THEN SPREADING
EAST INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/LAKES AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE COVERING
THE SOUTHEAST US IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE LA NINA PATTERN. THE
MID LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DAY
6/THU MAR 12 INTO FRI MAR 13.

...WRN US...

NEXT TUE MAR 10-THU MAR 12 THE 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL CONTINUES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE ERN PAC MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ERODING IS LIKELY OVERDONE IN LIGHT OF
THE CONTINUING UPSTREAM TROUGH PLUS MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE
CANADIAN WAS GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT AS A RESULT. THIS RIDGE
RE-AMPLIFIES NEXT FRI 13 MAR DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE OPEN NORTH PACIFIC. THERE IS NORTH-SOUTH VARIABILITY IN
WHERE A CLOSED LOW FORMS WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AXIS....WHICH LEADS TO A RECOMMENDATION TO BLEND SOLUTIONS WITH
THE MEANS UNTIL CLUSTERING IMPROVES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
COLDER THAN NORMAL WED-THU...WITH MODERATION COMING FRI OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CA COAST WED MAR
11 CONTINUES TO CUT UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST US RIDGE AND PROGRESS
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US NEXT THU-FRI MAR 12-13. THERE ARE
TYPICAL TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES TO BE RESOLVED AND A
BLEND OF THE 12/05-00Z/06 ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH LESS WEIGHTING TO
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...WAS USED FOR MANUAL PROGS.

PETERSEN/FLOOD

Extremeweatherguy · #1259 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 12:35 am

As can be expected from the GFS, the latest run (00z) now keeps the precipitation south of Oklahoma mid next week. No winter storm if this run is correct.

Ed Mahmoud · #1260 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 12:42 am

GFS showing 2 meter temps below 850 mb temps with precip in Houston late next week, near 40ºF. I'm pretty sure the GFS "knows" about sun angle and day length, just imagining the same pattern, and what might have been, in HOU two months earlier.

GFS sometimes underestimates shallow cold airmasses, but I doubt it missed by 4º C.

But I can always hope.

Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

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