yeah I have noticed that too. I don't understand it. They should be warning the people now...not waiting to warn them when it is too late. Many Channel 2 watchers may happen to miss the Sat. night newscast and not know to cover their plants. What a surprise for them when they awake to dead flowers and plants on Sunday morning.Tyler wrote:Ya, Dr. Neil has this situation pegged right now... News stations in Houston have ALWAYS been scared to put 20s in the forecast. I don't know why. The lowest they will go is 30, before they finally give in at the last minute...
Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Extremeweatherguy
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my LATEST ideas on the Saturday night lows are below, I am now going to bring them down into a tighter 3-degree temperature range...and we will see how they verify:
***this forecast is based on there being perfect radiational cooling. If there is not, then you can add up to 2-5F to these numbers***
IAH = 25-27F
Hooks = 22-24F
Conroe = 20-22F
Hobby = 28-30F
Galveston = 31-33F
College Station = 22-24F
Beaumont = 26-28F
**I will raise/lower these numbers tomorrow based on latest models and thinking at that time...but for now; this is my prediction.**
***this forecast is based on there being perfect radiational cooling. If there is not, then you can add up to 2-5F to these numbers***
IAH = 25-27F
Hooks = 22-24F
Conroe = 20-22F
Hobby = 28-30F
Galveston = 31-33F
College Station = 22-24F
Beaumont = 26-28F
**I will raise/lower these numbers tomorrow based on latest models and thinking at that time...but for now; this is my prediction.**
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Tyler
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Tyler
My weekend forecast for the Houston area (we'll see how this goes):
Tonight: Partly cloudy this evening, then cloudy after midnight. Slight chance of a few showers after midnight. Warmer. Lows in the lower to mid 50s. Chance of rain: 30%
Tommorow: Showers. Thunderstorms. Isolated chance of a strong or severe storm, although I really don't expect much. Instability will be lacking. If we do manage to get a severe cell, then the main threat is large hail, as there will be very cold temperatures aloft. Expect morning highs in the lower 60s, with temperatures falling RAPIDLY into the 40s as the front passes through, probably around 4pm. Temperatures could drop as much as 10 or 15 degrees in one hour. It will be VERY windy tommorow as well, so as temperatures drop, expect wind chills to become a factor. Winds could be sustained up to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain: 100%
Tommorow night: A cold rain in the evening, then a slight chance of a cold rain after midnight. Much colder. Lows in the mid 30s. Winds around 15 mph in the evening, then around 5 mph to 10 mph after midnight. Watchout for wind chills as low as the lower 20s. Chance of rain 100% in the evening, then 30% after midnight.
Saturday: Cold. Cloudy in the morning, then partial clearing in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with wind chills in the 30s. Bundle up!
Saturday night: The coldest night of this winter season. Protect all plants and vegetation as this could be a hard freeze. Clear skies and calm winds will provide excellent radiational cooling. Lows in the mid 20s north of IH-10, upper 20s south of IH-10, and around 30 Downtown. Possibly cooler readings in rural areas and the normally cooler spots.
Sunday: Sunny and cool. Highs in the lower 50s.
Sunday night: Clear. Lows in the lower 30s north IH-10, mid 30s south IH-10
And to start the work week: Sunny and warmer with highs in the mid 60s and lows monday night in the lower 40s.
Bottom line. Stay warm tommorow and Saturday, and watch out for the coldest temperatures this season sunday morning, protect ALL sensitive plants, as this will be a hard freeze. And of course, much needed rain is on the way as well!
Tonight: Partly cloudy this evening, then cloudy after midnight. Slight chance of a few showers after midnight. Warmer. Lows in the lower to mid 50s. Chance of rain: 30%
Tommorow: Showers. Thunderstorms. Isolated chance of a strong or severe storm, although I really don't expect much. Instability will be lacking. If we do manage to get a severe cell, then the main threat is large hail, as there will be very cold temperatures aloft. Expect morning highs in the lower 60s, with temperatures falling RAPIDLY into the 40s as the front passes through, probably around 4pm. Temperatures could drop as much as 10 or 15 degrees in one hour. It will be VERY windy tommorow as well, so as temperatures drop, expect wind chills to become a factor. Winds could be sustained up to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain: 100%
Tommorow night: A cold rain in the evening, then a slight chance of a cold rain after midnight. Much colder. Lows in the mid 30s. Winds around 15 mph in the evening, then around 5 mph to 10 mph after midnight. Watchout for wind chills as low as the lower 20s. Chance of rain 100% in the evening, then 30% after midnight.
Saturday: Cold. Cloudy in the morning, then partial clearing in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with wind chills in the 30s. Bundle up!
Saturday night: The coldest night of this winter season. Protect all plants and vegetation as this could be a hard freeze. Clear skies and calm winds will provide excellent radiational cooling. Lows in the mid 20s north of IH-10, upper 20s south of IH-10, and around 30 Downtown. Possibly cooler readings in rural areas and the normally cooler spots.
Sunday: Sunny and cool. Highs in the lower 50s.
Sunday night: Clear. Lows in the lower 30s north IH-10, mid 30s south IH-10
And to start the work week: Sunny and warmer with highs in the mid 60s and lows monday night in the lower 40s.
Bottom line. Stay warm tommorow and Saturday, and watch out for the coldest temperatures this season sunday morning, protect ALL sensitive plants, as this will be a hard freeze. And of course, much needed rain is on the way as well!
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MiamiensisWx
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Tyler
Well, personally I think ya'll are in for some really cool weather until about Tuesday. Temperatures should start to moderate then, as temps eventually warm back to the 80's by thursday of next week. Before then, on sunday, it will be unseasonbly cool, highs struggling to reach 60, lows in the 30s. (obviously warmer at the coast)
There may be another shot for southern Florida to recieve yet another cold front some time next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate bitterly cold air to begin flowing into central Canada. They then try to ooze that air into the lower 48. They are obviously being too slow with it, as they were with this arctic blast, but eventually that air will dislodge, and the south could be in for yet another winter blast of cold canadian air, only it may be colder next time. Cold high pressure systems sure are begining to develop up there, its just a matter of time before we see yet another 1050MB + high pushing into the Rocky Mountains...
There may be another shot for southern Florida to recieve yet another cold front some time next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate bitterly cold air to begin flowing into central Canada. They then try to ooze that air into the lower 48. They are obviously being too slow with it, as they were with this arctic blast, but eventually that air will dislodge, and the south could be in for yet another winter blast of cold canadian air, only it may be colder next time. Cold high pressure systems sure are begining to develop up there, its just a matter of time before we see yet another 1050MB + high pushing into the Rocky Mountains...
Last edited by Tyler on Thu Feb 09, 2006 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
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- Location: Florida
accuweather predicts an interesting week next week:
Also: JB is saying that this cold air will not fade away. He expects it to be very cold next week at this time and into next weekend and he says that many places are going to see their coldest 2-3 week stretch (all winter) of cold (compared to the norms) over the next few weeks. Looks very interesting. This first shot of cold is probably just priming us for a stronger shot next week. Some memorable snow/ice events for Texas during the time period of Feb. 10th and 20th (does not include events before or after those dates) include:
SNOW
YEAR DATE Inches
1895 February 14-15 20
1958 February 12 Trace
1960 February 12 4.4
1963 February 12 Trace
1964 February 21 Trace
1973 February 9-10 1.4
1973 February 17-18 1.4
1981 February 11 Trace
ICE
YEAR DATE REMARKS
1965 February 24 Glaze
1988 February 11 Glaze
Also...some major cold (below 15F) readings during that period include (this goes back to 1892...so it includes a few events that the NWS records do not):
COLD
YEAR MONTH DATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
1895 February 16 13
1899 February 12 6
1899 February 13 6
1899 February 14 10
***may be we can get another 1973 event when 1.4" fell on Feb. 17th-18th. That would line up with the dates next weekend. So it is definitely not too late for a good snowfall.***
Also: JB is saying that this cold air will not fade away. He expects it to be very cold next week at this time and into next weekend and he says that many places are going to see their coldest 2-3 week stretch (all winter) of cold (compared to the norms) over the next few weeks. Looks very interesting. This first shot of cold is probably just priming us for a stronger shot next week. Some memorable snow/ice events for Texas during the time period of Feb. 10th and 20th (does not include events before or after those dates) include:
SNOW
YEAR DATE Inches
1895 February 14-15 20
1958 February 12 Trace
1960 February 12 4.4
1963 February 12 Trace
1964 February 21 Trace
1973 February 9-10 1.4
1973 February 17-18 1.4
1981 February 11 Trace
ICE
YEAR DATE REMARKS
1965 February 24 Glaze
1988 February 11 Glaze
Also...some major cold (below 15F) readings during that period include (this goes back to 1892...so it includes a few events that the NWS records do not):
COLD
YEAR MONTH DATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
1895 February 16 13
1899 February 12 6
1899 February 13 6
1899 February 14 10
***may be we can get another 1973 event when 1.4" fell on Feb. 17th-18th. That would line up with the dates next weekend. So it is definitely not too late for a good snowfall.***
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Portastorm
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Tyler
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Portastorm
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Tyler wrote:Portastorm wrote:After looking back on this thread and given the turn of events of the last week, I almost think Tyler and Extremeweatherguy willed this arctic cold front ...
We both have that power ya know!
Alrightee then ... how about if you spin up a winter weather event for most of Texas next weekend, ok?
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
I'll try my best. Let me just go ahead and type that request into my weather machine..Portastorm wrote:Tyler wrote:Portastorm wrote:After looking back on this thread and given the turn of events of the last week, I almost think Tyler and Extremeweatherguy willed this arctic cold front ...
We both have that power ya know!
Alrightee then ... how about if you spin up a winter weather event for most of Texas next weekend, ok?
(I really hope we do see one though. As I posted above...there have been 1"+ snowfalls in Texas...even up to 20" snowfalls...during mid February. Hopefully we will get another one next weekend. We are well overdue for a Feb. snowfall).
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Tyler
Portastorm wrote:Tyler wrote:Portastorm wrote:After looking back on this thread and given the turn of events of the last week, I almost think Tyler and Extremeweatherguy willed this arctic cold front ...
We both have that power ya know!
Alrightee then ... how about if you spin up a winter weather event for most of Texas next weekend, ok?
You got it!
FYI, I do expect another shot of canadian air next weekend. GFS and ECMWF both support it. The next shot may be colder, as aggiecutter has pointed out as well...
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plainsman
hey
acually its Dallas love field that has the biggest heat island effect, not DFW...... Fort Worth spinks is the coldest location in the Dallas fort worth metro but parts of west fort worth have like 1200 ft. of elevation compared to 500-900 ft. in dallas thats why fort worth is 1-6 degrees colder then Dallas on nights with radiational cooling im pretty sure and the fact that fort worth is more wide open and theres not as many buildings there ... theres heat islands everywhere in st.lous, chicago,nyc, all the big cities have them.... and a couple degrees doesnt make a big difference anyways ya know.. its not like theres a noticible difference between ft.worth and dallas because of the heat islandExtremeweatherguy wrote:Yeah the airports do ok (except Hobby...since it is closer to the coast). The suburbs are also much cooler and my house is in a "cool pocket" which can be 3-6F colder than the airport during good radiational cooling.Tyler wrote:Brent wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:ok for all those in Houston who think IAH will be 29+...
The forecast low in VICTORIA is 27 on Sunday night! I do not see how a place south of us, could end up being 2 degrees colder then what you are thinking Houston will be (unless there was clouds here and not there, or something similar...which is not expected). If Victoria hits 27...then I would expect at least 25 at IAH.
Houston=Heat Island.
Not the airport, only downtown. The airport actually does ok during radiational cooling, unlike DFW in Dallas.
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PTrackerLA
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Local weatherman said in his blog that it will definately be cold enough aloft to generate snow flurries saturday afternoon and evening but moisture will be limited. Currently he says the chance is less than 10%. He also believes that if the winds calm down we could be in the mid 20's but he's currently forecasting 29.
Also the NWS New Orleans is saying this:
A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS SHOWING
1053 MB HIGH OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. GALE FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIR. WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS MAY CUT INTO THE COOL
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW
DAY AND NIGHT. SOME FLURRIES SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW FRONTAL
INVERSION WITH A NEARLY TOTAL SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING. NO
MEASUREABLE AMOUNTS EXPECTED BUT JUST SOME AESTHETIC FLAKES TO SET
THE MOOD OF THE SEASON. FLURRIES MAY EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
LOUISIANA...BUT WILL FOREGO MENTION OF SUCH AT THIS TIME FOR MORE
MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.
The chance is there!
Also the NWS New Orleans is saying this:
A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS SHOWING
1053 MB HIGH OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. GALE FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIR. WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS MAY CUT INTO THE COOL
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW
DAY AND NIGHT. SOME FLURRIES SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW FRONTAL
INVERSION WITH A NEARLY TOTAL SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING. NO
MEASUREABLE AMOUNTS EXPECTED BUT JUST SOME AESTHETIC FLAKES TO SET
THE MOOD OF THE SEASON. FLURRIES MAY EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
LOUISIANA...BUT WILL FOREGO MENTION OF SUCH AT THIS TIME FOR MORE
MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.
The chance is there!
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Tyler
PTrackerLA wrote:Local weatherman said in his blog that it will definately be cold enough aloft to generate snow flurries saturday afternoon and evening but moisture will be limited. Currently he says the chance is less than 10%. He also believes that if the winds calm down we could be in the mid 20's but he's currently forecasting 29.
Also the NWS New Orleans is saying this:
A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS SHOWING
1053 MB HIGH OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. GALE FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIR. WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS MAY CUT INTO THE COOL
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW
DAY AND NIGHT. SOME FLURRIES SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW FRONTAL
INVERSION WITH A NEARLY TOTAL SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING. NO
MEASUREABLE AMOUNTS EXPECTED BUT JUST SOME AESTHETIC FLAKES TO SET
THE MOOD OF THE SEASON. FLURRIES MAY EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
LOUISIANA...BUT WILL FOREGO MENTION OF SUCH AT THIS TIME FOR MORE
MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.
The chance is there!
Lucky! I can only hope for some fluke situation to happen here...
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Extremeweatherguy
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I checked and here are some interesting statistics for IAH:
Last time IAH recorded a freeze = Dec. 8th, 2005 (31F)
Last time IAH was below 30 = Dec. 26th, 2004 (28F)
Last time IAH was below 27 = Mar. 4th, 2002 (22F)<<20F at Hooks on that day!
Last time IAH was below 22 = Dec. 20th, 1996 (21F)<<teens at Hooks on that day!
Saturday night/Sunday morning looks like it will be the coldest since March 2002...as I think IAH records lower numbers tham what was seen last Dec. 26th. This will be the first hard freeze (at IAH) in about 4 years! wow.
Last time IAH recorded a freeze = Dec. 8th, 2005 (31F)
Last time IAH was below 30 = Dec. 26th, 2004 (28F)
Last time IAH was below 27 = Mar. 4th, 2002 (22F)<<20F at Hooks on that day!
Last time IAH was below 22 = Dec. 20th, 1996 (21F)<<teens at Hooks on that day!
Saturday night/Sunday morning looks like it will be the coldest since March 2002...as I think IAH records lower numbers tham what was seen last Dec. 26th. This will be the first hard freeze (at IAH) in about 4 years! wow.
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Tyler
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