Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cajungal]

And just a couple days ago everyone was saying on this thread winter cancel. You see how fast things change

[txtwister78]

That +PNA trend still has me believing the core of the cold will be east despite recent GFS/GEFS. Euro OP is all over the place, but the incoming EPS looks meh compared to GEFS. Not saying it won't be colder relative to averages. Think that's a given but core of it overall to me at least still favors areas east of us as the positive PNA influence takes over.

Perhaps there would be a window for some winter weather opportunity after the 7th-11th range.

[HockeyTx82]

And just a couple days ago everyone was saying on this thread winter cancel. You see how fast things change

And it still can. Plenty of time for all the excitement to come crashing down.

I've got my popcorn ready for the emotional roller coaster posts that will be forthcoming.

[Brent]

And just a couple days ago everyone was saying on this thread winter cancel. You see how fast things change

And it still can. Plenty of time for all the excitement to come crashing down.

I've got my popcorn ready for the emotional roller coaster posts that will be forthcoming.

Yeah the biggest issue is still the fact that we are so far out I mean the last two winters I've had snow fall apart in less time than this

I mean I think the one advantage we have here is there is more than one chance... It was literally one chance for an hour last winter and failed

[cajungal]

And just a couple days ago everyone was saying on this thread winter cancel. You see how fast things change

And it still can. Plenty of time for all the excitement to come crashing down.

I've got my popcorn ready for the emotional roller coaster posts that will be forthcoming.

I never get excited til about 72-48 hours out. And then I had major disappointment when everyone around me is seeing snow except me 60 miles SW of New Orleans

[Stratton23]

In terms of the cold, you can pretty much 100% lock that in, its coming absolutely, in terms of winter weather , we will see how that plays out going forward

[Cpv17]

In terms of the cold, you can pretty much 100% lock that in, its coming absolutely, in terms of winter weather , we will see how that plays out going forward

I’m sure the cold is coming too, just don’t know how cold yet. The lack of snowpack over the U.S. could really modify the air.

[wxman22]

In terms of the cold, you can pretty much 100% lock that in, its coming absolutely, in terms of winter weather , we will see how that plays out going forward

I’m sure the cold is coming too, just don’t know how cold yet. The lack of snowpack over the U.S. could really modify the air.

Yep I agree we're gonna get below average for at least a few days if not longer. But how much remains to be seen. One thing I am liking in the models is the shortwaves they have moving in from the northwest. A lot of times we're trying to find moisture in the models until the last minute LOL. This time models are starting off from the jump hinting that moisture will be available. At least for right now this does not appear to be one of those bone dry arctic setups that we see (January earlier this year as an example).

[Stratton23]

wxman22 yeah we definitely dont want a december 2022 repeat in which it was so cold that everything got suppressed way too the south, Euro would be nice , highs in the 30’s with some snow on the ground, minimal disruption and alot more fun for folks!

[Brent]

Yeah at least we have more than one window I mean last year was horrible it was literally a 2 hour window and that was it. I still havent gotten past that

[wxman57]

I plotted all 12Z models. EC is much warmer than 00Z. Canadian is coldest, but only goes out to 240hrs. It has a history of being WAY too cold with Arctic air, at least in Houston. I added EC-AIFS. It's the warmest, by far. Perhaps the AI model won't handle Arctic air very well? Or, maybe winter is just over...

http://www.wxman57.com/images/Models12ZDec29.jpg

[HockeyTx82]

I plotted all 12Z models. EC is much warmer than 00Z. Canadian is coldest, but only goes out to 240hrs. It has a history of being WAY too cold with Arctic air, at least in Houston. I added EC-AIFS. It's the warmest, by far. Perhaps the AI model won't handle Arctic air very well? Or, maybe winter is just over...

http://www.wxman57.com/images/Models12ZDec29.jpg

Do you remember at what point that you trusted model data for the 2021 outbreak or any previous major outbreaks prior to that?

I know that's a certain window where we wait until we say yep it's coming, but do you genuinely think this one is still on the fence or has potential to truly deliver?

[Stratton23]

Sounds like wxman57’s private jet is getting ready for standby

[Throckmorton]

Some EPS–mean temperature forecasts for Austin and a few areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 10th (12/29, 12Z run):

50 (62)–31 (21)...Amarillo
52 (68)–34 (23)...Austin Camp Mabry
43 (61)–29 (21)...Dallas
38 (56)–23 (07)...Oklahoma City
35 (52)–20 (05)...Tulsa

[Brent]

I mean I'm seeing posts about Arctic air from people who don't usually post so yeah

I'm sure some people remember how the globals suck with it and I'm sure that will be a storyline coming up here

My bigger concern is the precip I don't wanna do this and not get snow. We're behind on getting something this winter already vs every year I've been here and I don't wanna be dry while east of us with much worse climo gets some historic snowstorm either

[Ntxw]

And just a couple days ago everyone was saying on this thread winter cancel. You see how fast things change

And it still can. Plenty of time for all the excitement to come crashing down.

I've got my popcorn ready for the emotional roller coaster posts that will be forthcoming.

Yeah the biggest issue is still the fact that we are so far out I mean the last two winters I've had snow fall apart in less time than this

I mean I think the one advantage we have here is there is more than one chance... It was literally one chance for an hour last winter and failed

The curse now is we have 300+ hour euro. Only amplifies long range fantasy . You can only look for trends. Even the Euro its best skill score is within 5 days. Even less for the others. So when we talk of beyond 144 hours is possibilities and trends.

One thing for sure, no torch.

I like to take an ensemble and then analog approach. It gives an idea of how OP models may go towards. The ensembles having a growing number of wintry precip/trough placement alongside majority analog set that did provide snow gives credence someone, somewhere will likely have it in the southern US.

[Throckmorton]

Some GEFS–mean temperature forecasts for Austin and a few areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 9th (12/29, 12Z run):

40 (60)–20 (11)...Amarillo
47 (63)–29 (20)...Austin Camp Mabry
40 (61)–27 (19)...Dallas
34 (53)–20 (12)...Oklahoma City
30 (48)–17 (08)...Tulsa

[Throckmorton]

Here are some GEPS–mean temperature forecasts for Austin and a few areas of Oklahoma and north Texas for Jan. 9th (12/29, 12Z run). These are not necessarily the forecast daily highs and lows.

37–21...Amarillo
44–27...Austin Camp Mabry
37–26...Dallas
27–16...Oklahoma City
24–13...Tulsa

[Stratton23]

12z Euro AIFS is much colder

[Brent]

From the Tulsa AFD about next Sunday

It is possible that
some impactful wintry weather could occur. Stay tuned.