Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

0z NAM (upper air analysis) doesn't look ideal for dendritic growth -8c, surface temps about 41-45 throughout the entire event mostly if taken as is for north Texas. San Angelo and Midland doesn't have the 850mb level to worry about because of elevation, all snow there looks good.

Yeah, but, we can still hope for a few stray snow showers Christmas Eve Night...it's a possibility.

I won't let go, lol. West/Southwest Texas looks like it might pick up a good snowstorm out of this. If the NAM is correct.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, but, we can still hope for a few stray snow showers Christmas Eve Night...it's a possibility.

I won't let go, lol. West/Southwest Texas looks like it might pick up a good snowstorm out of this. If the NAM is correct.

Yeah, I'm not giving up hope . Just spitting out what the model says Thought I'd put some numbers up since some people might not know where to look for it.

[iorange55]

If a surprise doesn't happen, though. It looks like it will be another one of those "what if" storms we have so often here in Texas.

It's not easy to get snow here, and we (I) have become spoiled the past few years.

[Ntxw]

Something I did not see coming was the NAM tries to deepen the storm some more and lingers precip at the end of it's run. It is long range NAM though so take it how one wishes!

[iorange55]

Something I did not see coming was the NAM tries to deepen the storm some more and lingers precip at the end of it's run. It is long range NAM though so take it how one wishes!

I did not see that, as I may have pushed the "x" button rather angrily after 69hrs or so. But, that might be good for some flurries, perhaps.

[DonWrk]

A person I follow on Facebook just put a graphic up showing totals 3-5 inches just west of the metroplex. Pretty aggressive call right?

[iorange55]

A person I follow on Facebook just put a graphic up showing totals 3-5 inches just west of the metroplex. Pretty aggressive call right?

Just west, like Weatherford? If so, then yes. However, if you mean the Midland area, then I would say no.

[DonWrk]

A person I follow on Facebook just put a graphic up showing totals 3-5 inches just west of the metroplex. Pretty aggressive call right?

Just west, like Weatherford? If so, then yes. However, if you mean the Midland area, then I would say no.

Here is a link to the graphic https://twitter.com/#!/StormTeamChris/status/150053246206087169

[iorange55]

Here is a link to the graphic https://twitter.com/#!/StormTeamChris/status/150053246206087169

Yeah, I'd say that is a little aggressive. I'd be more comfortable putting an inch or so out there but he isn't on TV or anything, so he can afford to be a little more bullish.

I wish him the best! He can be our new mssssssssststateguy, or whatever his handle was!

[Ntxw]

One thing is for sure, GFS sure has abandoned it's idea of 'sprinkles' all hail king euro!

[DonWrk]

I was wondering about the whole deal with the missstateguy. Was it just a lucky guess or what did he see that others weren't seeing?

[Ntxw]

I was wondering about the whole deal with the missstateguy. Was it just a lucky guess or what did he see that others weren't seeing?

Longer range models threw some wacky snow totals around wichita falls, Oklahoma for Christmas eve. Everyone jumped ship in the short range when the models put the low way up north. He decided to gun it out and stick with insane totals 10+ for the falls and Okc when all of the globals had an inch or two. It panned out just that. If there was an award for most craziest prediction by a storm2ker he would take it home by a landslide!

[iorange55]

Longer range models threw some wacky snow totals around wichita falls, Oklahoma for Christmas eve. Everyone jumped ship in the short range when the models put the low way up north. He decided to gun it out and stick with insane totals 10+ for the falls and Okc. It panned out just that.

I thought he was just involved in some sort of witchcraft, but that seems plausible too!

And, how about that! The GFS finally shows more moisture, too bad it's all rain.

EDIT: Dan Henry (fox 4 news DFW) just hinted about upping snow totals to the west and southwest because of new model data.

[iorange55]

Dallas Fort Worth NWS thinks NAM may be too warm

.UPDATE...
SOME INTERESTING CHANGES ARE TAKING PLACE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON NORTH TEXAS WEATHER OVER THE CHRISTMAS
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS DEEPENED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND EVEN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS HAD IT. THE 00Z NAM HAS JUST
ARRIVED AND SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE BETTER BUT MAYBE
ALSO A BIT NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR NORTH
TEXAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE
NAM IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC
SECTIONS REVEAL IMPRESSIVE MOIST ASCENT...ESPECIALLY LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO
BE ON THE WARM SIDE...THE NAM MAY BE ENTIRELY TOO WARM...
ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CAN KICK IN. FOR NOW WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE EVENT AND START PRECIP A BIT
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. WILL
ALSO ADD THE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL ALLOW THE
NEXT SHIFT TO LOOK AT ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
MAJOR CHANGES.

Deja vu to two years ago?

[Turtle]

What does this bolded part mean?

N/NW WINDS KNOCKING ON THE FOGGY DOOR OF THE FOUR STATE AREA. MOST
MODELS LIKE A LIGHT POP OVERNIGHT AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
PERSIST WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK.
TXK ASOS IS IN FACT IS LIGHT RAIN NOW. WE HAVE BLANKETED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH A MENTION OF FOG. TOWARD
DAYBREAK I-30 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OF NW WIND ON
THE SURFACE WITH NEW NAM WINDS LOADED IN THROUGH THE NEXT 15 HRS.
THE LIGHT FOG WILL BLOW OUT BY THEN WITH CLOUDS PERHAPS A BIT MORE
STUBBORN. DECIDED TO RAISE MINS JUST A TAD GOING CLOSER TO NEW NAM
GUIDANCE. ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR JUST GOT LONGER
WITH SUPER WET SOIL AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO A COUPLE OF THOUSAND
FEET...AT LEAST UNTIL THE COLDER AIR SHIFTS IN A BIT. /24/

[Ntxw]

Well I was pretty confident that we would be at least colder than normal on Christmas, but it looks the rest of the month is warm. Early December fooled me into thinking it'll be a cold month.

I'd be careful about predicting warm past Christmas. Even though the GFS and a few others have shown it (for the most part for the country it will likely be so) but the pacific is very active still. You just never know when these things drop and models are struggling. It may not be colder than average but I think the southwest/sc plains will stay cool because of cloud cover and these energies that keep trying to hang back from nowhere.

[gpsnowman]

I work near Hwy 360 and Trinity in Ft. Worth and I stepped out for a smoke(I know, bad habit) and felt that cold wind and had that wintry "smell" to it. Temp sure has dropped. Felt and smelt good! Maybe that is just wishsmelling though

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Turtle, I'm thinking they expect fog to develop which will mute a sunrise that is already occurring very low in the sky.

[Turtle]

Turtle, I'm thinking they expect fog to develop which will mute a sunrise that is already occurring very low in the sky.

Ah, that makes sense. I wasn't thinking that they meant it literally.

[iorange55]

Well, things at least look better tonight. NWS has officially added a chance of snow for my locoation for Christmas morning.

There is a chance and that is better than nothing!