Texas Winter 2022-2023

[harp]

DO NOT like that ridging extending that far south off the Pacific! ^^^

Why?

Cuts off the storm track. Drier solution.

The last few runs have been basically dry anyway.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not gonna hang on precip maps this far out. We will work that out on Sunday/Monday and going forward.


I’m just excited for the cold.

[Iceresistance]

From 12z Euro

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1602739933558571009

[Cpv17]

Not gonna hang on precip maps this far out. We will work that out on Sunday/Monday and going forward.


I’m just excited for the cold.

I think the cold will definitely win out and flood into Texas but with the look of that ensemble it appears to have the core of the cold get hung up north and slide NE of us. Think we need a deeper southern trough. That’s probably why the models don’t have it getting crazy stupid cold down here.

[starsfan65]

Not gonna hang on precip maps this far out. We will work that out on Sunday/Monday and going forward.


I’m just excited for the cold.

I think the cold will definitely win out and flood into Texas but with the look of that ensemble it appears to have the core of the cold get hung up north and slide NE of us. Think we need a deeper southern trough. That’s probably why the models don’t have it getting crazy stupid cold down here.

hung up?

[jasons2k]

It will not be ‘83 again. I don’t think people appreciate just how long it was cold. That said, might want to start worrying about the grid again.

I certainly appreciate how cold it was and how long it was cold. I was a senior in high school that year. We tried to go duck hunting on Lake Texoma during that arctic outbreak and the ice was so thick in the shallow cove we were going to set our decoys in that myself and two grown men couldn’t even get it to crack.

It also got down to 19F in Tampa in 1983. That's a tall order.

[Ntxw]

Not gonna hang on precip maps this far out. We will work that out on Sunday/Monday and going forward.


I’m just excited for the cold.

I think the cold will definitely win out and flood into Texas but with the look of that ensemble it appears to have the core of the cold get hung up north and slide NE of us. Think we need a deeper southern trough. That’s probably why the models don’t have it getting crazy stupid cold down here.

hung up?

The difference between the GFS and Euro OP, one is neutral -PNA euro and neutral +PNA GFS. +PNA most of the time slides the core of cold to the east coast and dry for us. These are options if you consider 'losing it' in model world.

[orangeblood]

Not gonna hang on precip maps this far out. We will work that out on Sunday/Monday and going forward.


I’m just excited for the cold.

I think the cold will definitely win out and flood into Texas but with the look of that ensemble it appears to have the core of the cold get hung up north and slide NE of us. Think we need a deeper southern trough. That’s probably why the models don’t have it getting crazy stupid cold down here.

With a 1060 plus HP coming down from Western Canada, find it hard to believe it's going to slide off to the NE...they almost always hug the spine of the Rockies

[Ntxw]

Not gonna hang on precip maps this far out. We will work that out on Sunday/Monday and going forward.


I’m just excited for the cold.

I think the cold will definitely win out and flood into Texas but with the look of that ensemble it appears to have the core of the cold get hung up north and slide NE of us. Think we need a deeper southern trough. That’s probably why the models don’t have it getting crazy stupid cold down here.

With a 1060 plus HP coming down from Western Canada, find it hard to believe it's going to slide off to the NE...they almost always hug the spine of the Rockies

I would agree. Noted prior too look for these solutions to happen, it's climo. All the big top 5 HP cases dam and dump the cold out of sheer will. Now you do want to root for the southwest trough with it and no cyclogenesis in the Midwest if you want the big snow with the cold, otherwise dry cold.

[Iceresistance]

Does the GFS have a dry bias?

[Cpv17]

Not gonna hang on precip maps this far out. We will work that out on Sunday/Monday and going forward.


I’m just excited for the cold.

I think the cold will definitely win out and flood into Texas but with the look of that ensemble it appears to have the core of the cold get hung up north and slide NE of us. Think we need a deeper southern trough. That’s probably why the models don’t have it getting crazy stupid cold down here.

With a 1060 plus HP coming down from Western Canada, find it hard to believe it's going to slide off to the NE...they almost always hug the spine of the Rockies

Oh I definitely agree. I just don’t want to see the PNA going into positive territory. Neutral PNA will pull the trough back over Texas and can link up with the STJ.

[PTrackerLA]

Not gonna hang on precip maps this far out. We will work that out on Sunday/Monday and going forward.


I’m just excited for the cold.

I concur in South Louisiana. After seemingly countless WARM Christmases', I'm stoked that it's just going to be cold. It's a nice treat after a long year for me personally. I have my weather loving Dad all amped up over 1070mb+ Highs, looking forward to this Christmas .

[Cpv17]

Does the GFS have a dry bias?

It has an east coast bias. It’s biased to be progressive and blow everything up once it gets into the eastern 1/3 part of the country. It completely ignores blocks and tries to plow through them.

[Ntxw]

6-10 now from the latest CPC. Needless to say...BRRR! Nothing but barbed wire in the way.

[South Texas Storms]

The cold on the Euro is far enough west based that it would help with precip chances I would think as orangeblood mentioned.

Really interesting stuff. I am kind of kicking myself for not getting a generator after 2021. But, I felt surely I wouldn't need it again for a long time...

I think this could have greater potential for precipitation overall for the state than Feb 21 did.

I don't think so. February 2021 had a lot of frozen precipitation across the state. We saw a few disturbances move through and interact with the cold air. San Antonio and the Hill Country got 2 rounds of snow in a week from it. We'll really need the main trough to hang over the Rockies to produce snow with this event. That seems less likely right now.

[Iceresistance]

OOF!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-6.20.58-PM.png

[Ntxw]

The cold on the Euro is far enough west based that it would help with precip chances I would think as orangeblood mentioned.

Really interesting stuff. I am kind of kicking myself for not getting a generator after 2021. But, I felt surely I wouldn't need it again for a long time...

I think this could have greater potential for precipitation overall for the state than Feb 21 did.

I don't think so. February 2021 had a lot of frozen precipitation across the state. We saw a few disturbances move through and interact with the cold air. San Antonio and the Hill Country got 2 rounds of snow in a week from it. We'll really need the main trough to hang over the Rockies to produce snow with this event. That seems less likely right now.

2021 had one of the best trough placement that extended to the SW, like Euro.



1983 and 1989 were cold but largely dry. I don't think we go 1989 but 1983 is an option. All very cold but for different reasons. Similarities are big HP domes.





Caveat is right now we have -AO and -NAO like 2021 sitting over Hudson Bay which is why I'm hesitant to buy that eastern solution like 1989 and even 1983. Plenty of time to sort it out.

[Cpv17]

The cold on the Euro is far enough west based that it would help with precip chances I would think as orangeblood mentioned.

Really interesting stuff. I am kind of kicking myself for not getting a generator after 2021. But, I felt surely I wouldn't need it again for a long time...

I think this could have greater potential for precipitation overall for the state than Feb 21 did.

I don't think so. February 2021 had a lot of frozen precipitation across the state. We saw a few disturbances move through and interact with the cold air. San Antonio and the Hill Country got 2 rounds of snow in a week from it. We'll really need the main trough to hang over the Rockies to produce snow with this event. That seems less likely right now.

Yeah, I agree with you now. I was mainly just saying that cuz I didn’t really get much of anything here in Wharton County precip wise Feb 21. Just some very light ice accumulations and that was it but it looks like others got some nice totals. I was just saying that earlier because of the increased chances of precip I saw on the CPC map and I heard the SOI was going back negative again but you’re right, after looking at the 500mb pattern on the ensembles, looks pretty crappy for precip.

[Quixotic]

As it appears to me, it seems to be an upcoming series of “step down” fronts. In my experience, this is likely to produce precipitation chances. And FWIW, it really hasn’t been sunny here more than a day over the last two months. Don’t know about y’all, but the heavy rains after two extended droughts has trashed my yard. There’s moss and toadstools in my yard.

I think a slow press with ripples is our best shot. I get it. A massive HP seems like a dive but nobody has gone all in on a blast with suppression. It’s more like a steady descent. It’s how 83 started out before we lived in a flurry filled arctic. It’s how 09 and 13 started. I’m leaning more towards 09, 10 and 13 than 83 or 89. I reserve the right to change my mind if we see -60 in the NW of Canada but right now, I’ll take a steady descent over a plunge almost any time.

[rwfromkansas]

I think the cold will definitely win out and flood into Texas but with the look of that ensemble it appears to have the core of the cold get hung up north and slide NE of us. Think we need a deeper southern trough. That’s probably why the models don’t have it getting crazy stupid cold down here.

hung up?

The difference between the GFS and Euro OP, one is neutral -PNA euro and neutral +PNA GFS. +PNA most of the time slides the core of cold to the east coast and dry for us. These are options if you consider 'losing it' in model world.

Who do we think wins?

I am leaning Euro just because this will be dense cold air and it will push down which may influence the outcome by itself.

What is the trend on PNA of late? Does it appear to stay fairly neutral?

I would like slightly negative, but unfortunately we almost never get lucky to get that.