Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

WOW.........Talk about a little debating last night while I was asleep!! I had to go about 3 pages back to catch up with everything. Very interesting stuff to read. Everyone here has a really good point as to what will happen, so that just gives me another example of how unpredictible this weekend/next week will be.

Time to get caught up with GFS/NWS/NCEP..........Then its time to go to work.

[~Brennan~]

Of course the latest snow level forecast was pushed from 1500 to 2000 feet, it's the 6z, what do you expect?

[andycottle]

Good morning folks. A partly cloudy morning here at the 10:40am hour with a temp of 49.

Latest GFS 6z and 12z models, as well as the ECMWF and NOGAPS are all showing a strong ridge of high pressure for early next week around the 8th, and lasting through about the 16th. Though 12z has this ridge not lasting all that long and only staying the 8th - 11th. At any rate...we`ll mostly like see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies at times along with more mild temps. Mid 50`s to possibly even lower 60`s. 500MB heights during this time are 552DM to 564DM and 850MB temps around -6C early in the period, to which they warm to 0 to +3C by later in the period.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Just as I expected...A little surprise in the 12z ETA and GFS. They both show a rather strong surface low developing off the central coast Saturday night. The track of this low will be crucial. If it hits around the central coast and tracks through the SW interior, the central and northern interior could see snow. If the low is too far north or too far offshore it could ruin the cold spell all together. At any rate...temperatures will fall to at least slightly below normal values this weekend. What a refreshing change!

I continue to marvel at a couple of points. One is the analogs for the past several days have been from years like 1951, 1954, 1955, and 1956. Analog means the patterns at this point in those years resembled where we are at now. That was period that featured a lot of late season cold spells. Another is how the negative PNA periods continue to not really deliver the cold for us. I wonder if there could be a lag time from the point we entered the negative PNA cycle to when it gets cold. A look at this graph will illustrate what I am talking about.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

Notice how the average PNA line has recently dropped below zero. Where are the cold winters to show for it? Could they still be coming?

[andycottle]

From what snow wizzard is saying and from what I see on the UW site, it appears the 998MB low tracks into the Cental Wa. coast sunday morning with winds of 20 to 30kts out of the NNW at the 925MB height level. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_slp+///1 -- Andy

[Guest]

That chart is pretty good looking in terms of PNA being in our favor. It looks like it will be going negative for some period. In past periods like this we had snowier winters... Maybe something to look forward to. As for this weekend. The 12z showing that low off the coast at 78 could possibly create a good deal of snow for areas to the north and east of it. It will most likely tweak itself a little bit with each run but it is very likely this could turn into something. Just the same, it could be nothing. Something to watch for though.

[snow_wizzard]

Very interesting...The GFS based MM5 is showing about a 20% probability of frozen precip. late Saturday night. It's a start anyway.

[AnthonyC]

I can almost say with 100 percent certainty that NO lowland region will see snow this weekend. The overall pattern is not conduscive for lowland snow...though the snow level should be down to 1500 feet. Like TT-SEA, I think most people are holding on to the idea of snow in the lowlands, but in reality they need to give up the idea. But remember, it's only February 3...we still have alot of winter to go.

As for this weekend, the mountains should get a good dumping...maybe 2 feet in some localized spots. Snow level should maintain at 2k from Friday night thru Monday morning...moisture should be heaviest between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning. If I PSCZ forms, Stevens Pass could get dumped on...and snow levels could briefly fall to 500-1000 feet...but NO lowland snow.

I think if people continue to ponder the idea of snow this weekend, they will drive themselves nuts. I've given up the idea, but like I've stated before...there's still eight weeks left of winter. In any event, expect a brief return to winter...until a strong ridge once again develops the middle of next week.

Anthony

FINALLY BELOW 50 F...48 F with cloudy conditions.

[snow_wizzard]

I beg to differ. The MM5 shows that it could happen. The 18z shows a low taking the perfect track to bring lowland snow. I will say there is a better than 50% chance that somewhere in the lowlands will see snow. Watch and learn! Just look at the way that low tracks. Fraser outflow, and some seepage from the passes also. Anyone want to bet that could not bring snow?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/18z ... p_072m.htm
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/18z ... p_078m.htm

As for the long range. The 18z is TOTALLY different than previous solutiuons. This runs shows a trough beginning to dig in late next week, with BRUTAL cold in Alaska. In a case where Alaska is that cold, even maritime polar air can bring wet snow. I am not ready to buy off on the 18z long range yet, but it is interesting!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/18z ... 0_204m.htm

[R-Dub]

Boy I really don't know what to think for this weekend/next week. Like Snowwiz says, I also just looked at the 18z GFS, and there looks to be a fairly deep low tracking right along the boarder of WA/OR, and cold air just to our north, just something to watch........We all remember the unforecasted snow of NOV 1996 don't we???????
I am not saying it will happen, and I have no expectations that it will, but like so many other unpredicted snowstorms (almost every single one we have had) anything is possible.

I still can't think of a single snowstorm that was predicted over two days out.

NWS saying there could be a temp inversion next week, so it doesn't look like we warm much, unless you live higher up. TT could see 10 or more degrees warmer in North Bend, then lower areas.

In the Everett Herald today they talk about the lack of snow, and compare this yr to 1980-81 in terms of snowpack, but they say that by Feb/ March the pattern totally changes, and the mountains recieved up to 150" of snowfall. Hopefully this yr does the same thing (I think it will)
Even if we don't see snowfall in the lowlands this weekend, I have a feeling we will end up having a very late winter, so anything is possible. I think our spring weather is coming to an abrupt end. I am going to look back, and see what our temps were like in '80-'81
Be back soon........

BTW, its so dry around here that the dirt road I travel on to get to the golf course shop is DUSTY! My car has a layer of DUST on it!!! Another first for Feb!

Currently at LK Goodwin....
Cloudy
52 Degrees

[R-Dub]

Conditions in Everett.......
Febuary 10th 1981
Snow/ High 39/ Low 27

Febuary 11th 1981
Snow/ High 39/ Low 31

Then the rest of Feb and March were fairly mild in Everett

First half of April was very cool

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub...thanks for reminding me to put in a disclaimer. I also am not saying this is for sure, but I would NEVER say snow is impossible in this situation. The chance has to be mentioned at this point. Hear that NWS guys?

By the way...we had a low of 32 in Covington this morning. Nice to see frost again!

[snow_wizzard]

It is also interesting to note that the winter following 1980 - 81 was fairly cold and snowy. The winter of 1981 - 82 had cold well into March.

[W13]

I personally believe that we are in for it this weekend, well at least some areas will be. Areas such as the Cascade Foothills, and the usual convergence zone area if it does indeed form. This will most likely be another unforecasted event, although It is still too soon to tell just how much snow might fall and where.


46 F as of 4:15 PM

[R-Dub]

It is also interesting to note that the winter following 1980 - 81 was fairly cold and snowy. The winter of 1981 - 82 had cold well into March.

Good point Snowwiz, I think we are going to be set up perfectly for next winter! Should be a neutral yr, and it seems like after a very mild winter, the next winter we usually get blasted!!

Another thing about this winter, here is a snipit from NWS Local record setting weather.......

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA 910 PM PST WED FEB 2 2005

...DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET FOR FEBRUARY 2ND...
LOCATION NEW RECORD PREVIOUS / YEAR SANDPOINT WSFO 62 58 / 1993
STAMPEDE PASS 56 55 / 1962

See Sandpoint had a record high yesterday, previous record was in 1993, by Feb 20th 1993 We had 4" of snow on the ground, and the golf course was shut down for 13 days because of snow/cold that lasted through the end of Feb.

Just to prove that even though we have had a warm dry stretch similar to 1993, things can change abruptly, just like in 1993!!

[AnthonyC]

Still no mention of lowland snow for this weekend...just cool and showery...more typical for the end of January, beginning of February. High temperatures in the lower 40s, low temperatures in the upper 20s/lower 30s. I do see the surface low off the Washington coast beginning Sunday, but it's too premature to jump on. Only two forecast runs have shown this, and until I see more consistency and confidence, I will discount it.

Next week is in the air for now...GFS models were going with the theme of ridge in the west, trough in the east but each day seems to lose confidence in that solution. Even the latest 18z run shows more of a zonal flow beginning next weekend. For now, all local forecasters are saying dry but cool...under a northwest flow aloft. We'll just have to see.

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Stampede Pass record high from 1962? Very interesting! That year we had lows in the teens and a snowstorm by the end of Feb. On top of that Palmer (just east of Kent) had 41 inches of snow in March. Add to this, the fact that 1951, 1954, and 1955 keep coming up as analog years, and you get some interesting possibilities! Could this be the year we turn it around? Only time will tell.

[snow_wizzard]

I am getting a little bit excited after seeing the new ECMWF. It shows that a low will track accross the state and be into south central WA by late Saturday night. A low in that position can pull moist air around the north and south end of the Olympics, and create an atypical convergence zone in King County...not just north King County. It also shows a solid shot of cold Canadian air being pushed in on Sunday, with fairly robust N to S pressure gradients. This would spell highs in the 30s for many areas. The NWS is a asleep at the wheel on this.

It is amazing how my optimism level has shot up today! That will likely change when TT gets on here later.

[TT-SEA]

I will stand by my forecast. Still... it looks a little more interesting with the surface low forecasted now.

Nonetheless... I am little annoyed about Snow_Wizzard coming on here with his "mean lady and moan" attitutde toward everyone that likes warm weather and then when something interesting might happen he is all "positive" and upbeat.

Seems a little childish. Demanding that everyone respect his "knowledge".

The debate is hardly scientific when Snow-Wizzard is pissed off.

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

Just don't get your hopes up too high...we all know what happened in the beginning of January...everything looked perfect; we had arctic air, a surface low off the Washington coast, plenty of moisture...and what did we get from that entire event?! Maybe 2 inches. I think we all went into a little depression after that event. So just a word of advice...keep looking at the models with an open mind...meaning, don't always expect to find brutal cold and snow. I'm going into this weekend with a set mentality for no lowland snow...snow staying above 2k. Hopefully I'm proven wrong, but for now I think I'll stay sane with this mentality.

Anthony