Texas Winter 2012-2013

[PineyWoods]

Models (Euro/GFS) have definitely come into good agreement in the past 3-4 runs, though they differ on the exact placement on the snow band next Tue/Wed. GFS keeps it all north of the Red River. Euro is a little farther south, with 1/2 to 1 inch amounts a county or two south of the Red River and 3-5" across southern OK. I think if you live up in Dallas then there is a chance that snow will fall on Christmas afternoon/evening. South of there, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Well I guess that Tyler-Longview storm path went north then?

Oh well, winter is just getting started. Thanks for the good info.

[iorange55]

Models (Euro/GFS) have definitely come into good agreement in the past 3-4 runs, though they differ on the exact placement on the snow band next Tue/Wed. GFS keeps it all north of the Red River. Euro is a little farther south, with 1/2 to 1 inch amounts a county or two south of the Red River and 3-5" across southern OK. I think if you live up in Dallas then there is a chance that snow will fall on Christmas afternoon/evening. South of there, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Well I guess that Tyler-Longview storm path went north then?

Oh well, winter is just getting started. Thanks for the good info.

The track is not set in stone, yet. If Dallas gets some snow out of this system then I bet there will be a decent chance for your area to pick up something. Models are agreeing with each other better than previous days, but there are still a lot of uncertainties.

[weatherdude1108]

And herein lies the storm which will make or break hearts in Texas next week! (Warning: link to IR satellite loop below is time sensitive)

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/EP1/COMP/

I noticed our (Austin's) chance for rain went from 40%, to 30%, to 20% (today's forecast) over the last few days for Christmas Day. Shocker.

I do like that plume of moisture coming in from the southwest in the Pacific! Probably nothing but high clouds, but hey, here's to -removed-!

[aggiecutter]

The NWS out of Shreveport is forecasting a 40% chance of snow for Texarkana on Christmas night. I assume they are going with the EURO model output.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 9&site=shv

"Tuesday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

30.9 here at the casa. I believe this is colder than was expected here.

[orangeblood]

Overnight CFSv2 run showing a severe Arctic outbreak engulfing much of the country to start off January....centered over the midwest

[Portastorm]

:wink:

And herein lies the storm which will make or break hearts in Texas next week! (Warning: link to IR satellite loop below is time sensitive)

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/EP1/COMP/

I noticed our (Austin's) chance for rain went from 40%, to 30%, to 20% (today's forecast) over the last few days for Christmas Day. Shocker.

I do like that plume of moisture coming in from the southwest in the Pacific! Probably nothing but high clouds, but hey, here's to -removed-!

EWX has been riding their forecasts on the Euro runs for the last few days. The Euro has generally been drier for our area of the state than the GFS. EWX's point has been why go against the ongoing dry/drought trend? Hard to argue, sadly enough.

The GFS does show a parade of southern stream storms for the next 15 days. Let's hope it's right.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Overnight CFSv2 run showing a severe Arctic outbreak engulfing much of the country to start off January....centered over the midwest

Been hearing this which is great, where do you find this info?

[Tejas89]

What a difference a year makes... Probably have 50%+ coverage after next week's storm.

[orangeblood]

Overnight CFSv2 run showing a severe Arctic outbreak engulfing much of the country to start off January....centered over the midwest

Been hearing this which is great, where do you find this info?

Here is a free site you can follow

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/

There are other pay sites out there that are much more detailed though

[dhweather]

:wink:

And herein lies the storm which will make or break hearts in Texas next week! (Warning: link to IR satellite loop below is time sensitive)

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/EP1/COMP/

I noticed our (Austin's) chance for rain went from 40%, to 30%, to 20% (today's forecast) over the last few days for Christmas Day. Shocker.

I do like that plume of moisture coming in from the southwest in the Pacific! Probably nothing but high clouds, but hey, here's to -removed-!

I was noticing that as well. I'll take whatever moisture we can get in place so when the upper level dynamics arrive, we can get some kind of precip. Nothing beats rich Gulf moisture, but again, I'll take whatever we can get.

[Snowman67]

30.9 here at the casa. I believe this is colder than was expected here.

DW Hooks airport here in Tomball recorded 25F at 6:53am. Our forecasted low was 31F

[iorange55]

Still early in the run but the 12z GFS appears to be digging a bit more compared to the 0z run.

GFS continues to show the snow staying up north into Oklahoma. Now we wait for the Euro.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Got down to 33 at the NWS observation station closest to my home in NW Corpus Christi. I had 37 on my digital, but it tends to be off by some 3 to 4 degrees.

It's now sitting at 48, but the clouds are rolling in which makes me think we won't even get close to 60 today. After four days of 80's to near 90, I'll take this any day of the week.

[orangeblood]

Still early in the run but the 12z GFS appears to be digging a bit more compared to the 0z run.

The 12Z NAM isn't digging nearly as much as the other models

[drred4]

22.8 here this morning north east of Bryan a few miles from the Navasota River

[Rgv20]

Got down to 35F this morning....Still NO freeze for my area this winter!

[Portastorm]

Guess I'll report in as well ... the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County bottomed out this morning at 26 degrees, roughly around 6:30 a.m.

P.S. The 12z GFS through 240 hours is looking very ho-hum.

[iorange55]

Guess I'll report in as well ... the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County bottomed out this morning at 26 degrees, roughly around 6:30 a.m.

P.S. The 12z GFS through 240 hours is looking very ho-hum.

It's still looking pretty cold for a long time, though! A few systems rolling by, cold air in place...I like the way the next couple of weeks is setting up. It's definitely going to a fun ride.

Much better than last year.

[Portastorm]

Guess I'll report in as well ... the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County bottomed out this morning at 26 degrees, roughly around 6:30 a.m.

P.S. The 12z GFS through 240 hours is looking very ho-hum.

It's still looking pretty cold for a long time, though! A few systems rolling by, cold air in place...I like the way the next couple of weeks is setting up. It's definitely going to a fun ride.

Much better than last year.

Fair enough ... maybe my expectations are too high. At least it doesn't show a zonal flow the whole time like last year. Or like the last two months! I'd like to see a more suppresed southern jet and an active southern stream. Look forward to the 12z Euro and seeing the ensembles later.

Next week's big ticket item should start coming into better focus later tomorrow into Sunday with the operational runs.