Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ice storm in the northern half of Texas the day after Christmas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Though this run shows cold the upper air pattern is very different with a much weaker NPO ridge, no SW troughing and all of a sudden it shows a strong ridge off of New England. This run is more east based cold vs west based. This is more like the GFS we have grown to love/hate.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

15th run in a row that shows extended cold. Keeps the trend going. 16 of last 18.

[wxman57]

15th run in a row that shows extended cold. Keeps the trend going. 16 of last 18.

I agree, the signs are all there indicating cold air around Christmas (sub-freezing). The big question revolves around precip potential. . There's a major difference in the latest (12Z) run of the GFS as far as the flow pattern aloft. No more cutoff low to our west once we're in the cold air. That limits precip potential considerably. Is THIS run correct and all the other runs (and the EC) wrong? I don't think we'll have a good idea about that for at least another week

[stormlover2013]

still way to far out to predict anything, does look like cold weather is coming, that's one thing we need, the other is moisture lets see if it pans out this time next week will be interesting to see.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

15th run in a row that shows extended cold. Keeps the trend going. 16 of last 18.

I agree, the signs are all there indicating cold air around Christmas (sub-freezing). The big question revolves around precip potential. . There's a major difference in the latest (12Z) run of the GFS as far as the flow pattern aloft. No more cutoff low to our west once we're in the cold air. That limits precip potential considerably. Is THIS run correct and all the other runs (and the EC) wrong? I don't think we'll have a good idea about that for at least another week

All I wanted out of this Christmas was COLD considering how (weather) depressing the last two Christmas holidays were. With that said, I'd certainly take a White Christmas too, whether that is sleet or snow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, GFS operational veered from its EC run

[South Texas Storms]

Good comparison there. I think the 12z GFS is too far east with the trough and a solution closer to the ensembles is more likely.

Several GFS Ensemble members still show a risk of frozen precip across much of TX in late December.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:uarrow:
Good comparison there. I think the 12z GFS is too far east with the trough and a solution closer to the ensembles is more likely.

Several GFS Ensemble members still show a risk of frozen precip across much of TX in late December.

GEFS has the cutoff low there from hour 240 through 312.

[bevolon]

Thanks to all of you for all the great information about the possible upcoming weather events!! As always i was sucked in again over the last couple of days and was getting really pumped about the potential and now the models are backing off it appears! I knew i shouldn't have started reading this thread! I always jinx it when I do!! LOL! Again, thanks for all the great information! It really breaks up the boredom of work everyday!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Thanks to all of you for all the great information about the possible upcoming weather events!! As always i was sucked in again over the last couple of days and was getting really pumped about the potential and now the models are backing off it appears! I knew i shouldn't have started reading this thread! I always jinx it when I do!! LOL! Again, thanks for all the great information! It really breaks up the boredom of work everyday!

Models haven't backed off for your location. Even the 12z GFS operational had your location getting a couple rounds of Ice.

[Portastorm]

Thanks to all of you for all the great information about the possible upcoming weather events!! As always i was sucked in again over the last couple of days and was getting really pumped about the potential and now the models are backing off it appears! I knew i shouldn't have started reading this thread! I always jinx it when I do!! LOL! Again, thanks for all the great information! It really breaks up the boredom of work everyday!

I would respectfully encourage you to re-read the posts. Only one operational model run has backed off the extreme scenario it was showing about precip. The cold is still there and other posts have explained why that particular run is probably a faultier run of the model.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Here's Mr. Euro

[ThunderSleetDreams]

God help this forum if we are still showing this output on Sunday. It's really going to shoot to 100 pages real fast.

[Brent]

Thanks to all of you for all the great information about the possible upcoming weather events!! As always i was sucked in again over the last couple of days and was getting really pumped about the potential and now the models are backing off it appears! I knew i shouldn't have started reading this thread! I always jinx it when I do!! LOL! Again, thanks for all the great information! It really breaks up the boredom of work everyday!

Its way too early to be specific really... all we really know is likely some level of extreme cold is coming and there's potential for a storm... beyond that, its impossible to tell this far out.

The models will sway run to run(this is the same GFS that said it wouldn't get cold last week.. ), you just have to watch broader general ideas at this range

[starsfan65]

Thanks to all of you for all the great information about the possible upcoming weather events!! As always i was sucked in again over the last couple of days and was getting really pumped about the potential and now the models are backing off it appears! I knew i shouldn't have started reading this thread! I always jinx it when I do!! LOL! Again, thanks for all the great information! It really breaks up the boredom of work everyday!

Its way too early to be specific really... all we really know is likely some level of extreme cold is coming and there's potential for a storm... beyond that, its impossible to tell this far out.

The models will sway run to run(this is the same GFS that said it wouldn't get cold last week.. ), you just have to watch broader general ideas at this range

The cold weather looks very likely.

[Ntxw]

Watch the Ensembles. You can sort of tell what to believe by using them imposed on the OP.

Remember, GFS is progressive happy. It loves to rush things and slip things east in most patterns. Euro can drag ULLs too much. Take the middle ground beyond truncation.

[spencer817]

Weatherbell models show 0.25-0.5 inches of frz rain and the liquid equivalent of 0.25-0.5 inches of snow in my area in DFW(so 2.5-5 inches of snow). This run wasnt that bad if you want snow or ice, but the first storm wasn't as promising.

[starsfan65]

Weatherbell models show 0.25-0.5 inches of frz rain and the liquid equivalent of 0.5 inches of snow (so 5 inches of snow). This run wasnt that bad if you want snow or ice, but the first storm wasn't as promising.

Which storm is it?

[Ntxw]

Nearly all guidance has near 1050mb high coming down Western Canada, including the 12z GFS. That is the thing to watch in future runs. Don't matter what the flow is in the contig 48. It will push cold down.