Texas Winter 2010-2011

[CaptinCrunch]

ECMWF winter snow storm next week in Texas!

Looks like an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina!

This year will NOT be a typical La Nina season.

[HockeyTx82]

So are we talking bust at this point or just some slight changes? Of course it being still a week out anything can change................

More like major changes from yesterday's Euro runs. Euro is trending more like the Canadian runs of late. Sharp trof passage but with the cold air moving in just ahead of the trof axis rather than yesterday's Euro run which had cold air well-entrenched over Texas when the trof moves across. Without having the deep cold air in place prior to the sharp trof passing severely limits any post-frontal precip across Texas.

Nothing is guaranteed yet, though I'd tend to go closer to the Canadian run than what the Euro was forecasting yesterday.

Well guess we can just wait and see. wxman57 Thank you for explaining it more clearly for me.

[HockeyTx82]

I have to say I am really enjoying the AFD's coming from the NWS office Ft. Worth of late, very informative.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN THE WEEK WILL SEE A SLOW WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
IN THE 70S AT MANY LOCATIONS. GFS/ECMWF HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EITHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE COOLED SUNDAY TEMPERATURES DOWN. COLD AIR THEN
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH DAY SEVEN.

THE BIG QUESTION ABOUT A WINTER EVENT OVER NORTH TEXAS REMAINS ON
THE TABLE. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY...WITH
THE 00Z RUN PRODUCING NEAR RECORD SNOWS OVER NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY...AND THE NEW 12Z RUN GIVING US A DUSTING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS TAKES THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY FARTHER NORTH...WITH ANY WINTER
PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING IN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH
THE SOLUTION IT GAVE YESTERDAY...AND GIVES ME A MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THE GFS OVER THE ERRATIC ECMWF.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUICKLY AFTER
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEMBERS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACKS OF THE
SYSTEM ARE QUITE DIVERGENT AND ONLY TWO MEMBERS OF THE 12 WE SEE
IN OUR SOFTWARE FORECAST ANY SNOW OVER TEXAS. THIS IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS SO THE CONSENSUS IS THAT NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

IS WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK--YES. IS IT PROBABLE--NOT
YET. WHAT REMAINS PROBABLE/EXPECTED IS A COOL DOWN...A MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/THE OPERATIONAL GFS/AND THE ECMWF ALL FORECAST
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS TREND IS IN OUR FORECAST...BUT IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SAY YES TO A WINTER EVENT.

[wxman57]

Well guess we can just wait and see. wxman57 Thank you for explaining it more clearly for me.

Yep - wait and see, but don't hold your breath for snow. Have I mentioned that I hate winter yet today? Just wanted to get that in...

[Texas Snowman]

ECMWF winter snow storm next week in Texas!

Looks like an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina!

This year will NOT be a typical La Nina season.

Agreed. It's almost funny how we hear "La" this or "El" that and we pigeon hole the winter to come into a certain box.

[Ntxw]

It only takes one storm (el or la)! The set up is very similar (eerily) as the snowstorm back in February minus one key factor (the SJT). That storm as an open wave had copious amounts of moisture coming in from the pacific with a streaming band. Not much help this time so it could just come by dry...sigh I want a moderate el nino back!

[vbhoutex]

ECMWF winter snow storm next week in Texas!

Looks like an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina!

This year will NOT be a typical La Nina season.

Agreed. It's almost funny how we hear "La" this or "El" that and we pigeon hole the winter to come into a certain box.

Similar to how we did the Hurricane Season. It was anything but completely typical La Nina. This continues to be an interesting weather year.

[frigidice77]

That snowstorm is gonna be a bust. I can just tell that.

[Ivanhater]

That snowstorm is gonna be a bust. I can just tell that.

Could be, but many models and their ensembles are split about the storm ejecting out the SW. Who knows if it is a bust or not. We will not know that for a couple more days. Even if it is, that's winter in the South for you. Snow is never guaranteed.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

That snowstorm is gonna be a bust. I can just tell that.

Oh, you definately can't say that quite yet. They were saying on 2/10/2010 last year that we may get an inch of snow if we're lucky, 24 hours later I had 10.5" in my yard and it wasn't done yet. The models were waffling on that one too, so you never say never. That being said, generally taking that approach is best in Texas because most of our big snow storms are busts:)

[frigidice77]

Last year here in south georgia(I know this thread is about Texas) we had a winter storm warning which was the first time I have seen one here. We ended up with only a few snow flakes and the county north of us saw a record 5 inches. Thats my definition of a bust.It wasnt last year it was on FEb 12 2010

[orangeblood]

Although a little warmer than past runs, the 00Z GFS run is finally starting to show precip breaking out across the southern plains Monday into Tuesday of next week. This is the first run of the past few days that has shown any precip at all. On this run, the rain/snow line is setting up across southern Oklahoma and slowly sags south Monday evening. This one might be hard to peg until the storm gets closer to the west coast this weekend.

[Ntxw]

Our supposed storm feature is still somewhere between Alaska and Siberia. There's just no way yet the models will take a good grip on this. I like how the pattern is setting up with colder air coming in first and energy coming into the Pacific off the SoCal coast.

Something to keep an eye on is the streaming energy coming from Hawaii. If somehow our feature can tap into the subtropics, it will become a totally different animal.

Source region also looks cold, so plenty of chilly air to work with.



Storm or no storm, it should be the coldest air of the season so far.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF has backed off. But cold week next week. The culprit is the SW trough which is now much weaker on the models.

[natlib]

San Angelo NWS mentioning some light precip for the I-20 area next Tuesday. Will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

[Portastorm]

A quick perusal of the 12z GFS run over the entire cycle shows a positive PNA pattern (Western ridge-Eastern trough) fairly well pronounced.

Also shows little of a wintry precip threat for Texas next week but the cold air does pour down after the shortwave passes west to east through Oklahoma.

[natlib]

San Angelo NWS not excited about next week....

GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AND PASSING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT ABSOLUTE RULE OUT A
STRAY SPRINKLE...OR PERHAPS EVEN A SNOW FAKE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY. BUT GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM IS PASSING AND THE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...GETTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE LOOKS REALLY
TOUGH. WILL LEAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

[frigidice77]

Exactly as I mentioned Tuesday a snow bust. At least it will be freezing next week in the south.

[frigidice77]

My computer was messing up. lol I couldnt submit a post and then somehow I dont even know. lol My bad

[Texas Snowman]

From KXII-TV (Channel 12 - Sherman/Denison) met Steve LaNore:


http://www.kxii.com/blogs/weatherblog/W ... 54934.html


Polar high pressure building over central Canada is expected to push a cold front through sometime Saturday. The cool-down behind the front will be gradual as the high pressure center edges closer.

Meanwhile, a mid-level trough may show up in the jet stream flow by Monday or Tuesday. Given the cold air in place, there’s at least a chance of ice or snow as the trough moves by. The computer models continue to be all over the road on the position and strength of this trough. The most consistent model the past two days has been the US Navy’s version. This one brings light accumulations of ice or snow to Texoma on Tuesday with the core of heavy precipitation in the form of rain south of Dallas.

This makes sense as Saturday’s front will pass into the NW Gulf and keep Texoma cut off from significant moisture at the 5,000 foot level. This is often where saturated snow clouds form and dump their goods on us during the winter months. So, in this case the trough’s cold air and lift will have to counter the effect of marginal moisture.

Despite these limiting factors, there’s enough potential to put it on the 7 day at 30%.

Three maps comparing different model solutions for the same time frame (6am Tuesday) are shown below. Take a look at them. You can see why this deal is very far from certain.

Stay tuned for daily evening updates to this blog.

Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist / KXII-TV