SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013

[PTrackerLA]

CM I live down Kaliste Saloom near E. Broussard Hwy, I've noticed many times the distance between my location and the airport can lead to very different rain totals just like what happened with this past system. I see we now have a Flood Watch in effect through tomorrow night now:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...MORE FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAINS...WHEN WARM
ALOFT RIDES OVER COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...WILL COMMENCE AND
LINGER INTO MID-WEEK. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF LATE LAST WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
FLOODING STILL ONGOING...ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS EVENT...ESPECIALLY OF ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES...AND
LOW-LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

Anything more than 3" would cause some serious problems in the area. The river is currently at 13.2' but anything above 15' can start flooding homes in the city so will have to watch closely. If that wasn't enough I just noticed the 12z GFS gives us a low of 20 degrees on 1/26 . Maybe we'll get that hard freeze this year after all! (and hopefully some snow )

[BigB0882]

Weather.com is showing quite cold temps for us Monday and Tuesday with highs only in the mid 40s. It has steadily gone down as the days near. Rain also in the forecast. Cold and rainy...miserable

The 12z showing that real cold temp is, I think, the 3rd run in a row of really cold temps for most of us. Might be sniffing out the effects of the SSW finally coming in. Way too far off right now but the signs are there.

[northjaxpro]

Weather.com is showing quite cold temps for us Monday and Tuesday with highs only in the mid 40s. It has steadily gone down as the days near. Rain also in the forecast. Cold and rainy...miserable

The 12z showing that real cold temp is, I think, the 3rd run in a row of really cold temps for most of us. Might be sniffing out the effects of the SSW finally coming in. Way too far off right now but the signs are there.

Yeah, I think the models are slowly beginning to form some signs of coming together now with the recent runs with the SSW. It is looking more and more that a pretty good spell will be diving down into the lower 48 beginning next weekend and into the week of Jan 20-26. It will be interesting to see how cold it will get in the days to come.

[BigB0882]

The 12z GFS is also showing a deep south snow, albeit light, beyond 12 days or so. Very long range but it shows my area being below freezing for 2-3 days.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Nothing to get excited about. We all know by tomorrow the model runs will be showing spring like temps and more rain for us in the long range. Can't believe we have 3 more days of high probabilities of rain down here. If we do manage to get 2-3 inches tomorrow/tomorrow night we will have some serious issues with flooding.

[BigB0882]

Are they thinking we may get 2-3 more inches? I know we have high probs of rain but I haven't heard much about possible amounts. I kind of assumed it would just be passing showers but I also didn't expect parts of our area to get 9 inches from the last rain event!

[Kennethb]

Are they thinking we may get 2-3 more inches? I know we have high probs of rain but I haven't heard much about possible amounts. I kind of assumed it would just be passing showers but I also didn't expect parts of our area to get 9 inches from the last rain event!

I am thinking 3-4 inches on top of saturated ground. Only difference is that most rain will occur with temps in the 40's. More typical for this time of year.

[Ntxw]

HPC's thinking on rainfall for the next three days. Plenty of that for much of Louisiana

[BigB0882]

Geez, that's way more than we need.

[CajunMama]

I've got a good friend who lives in Estherwood, along Hwy. 90. They were in the area that received 12+ inches of rain. The water is still rising at her home due to the Mermentau River being almot 6' over flood stage. It's on piers and it's continuing to creep up to the front porch. More rain is forecasted and I know what she is going through right now.

PT..I'm not far from you. I'll use your obs instead of the airport! I'm between Comeaux High School and the Comeaux Rec Center/Lourdes Hospital. The gym parking lot is supposed to be a detention pond but it is not doing its job. I'm lucky I've got that new park between my home and the Isaac Verot Coulee. Do you have a weather station that you can report on underground?

[vbhoutex]

What a difference 8 hours makes!! Woke up to rain, thunder, and 39f. It was 71f when I went to bed. Looks like an ugh week weather wise in Houston. Not expecting to get out of the 40s till Thursday or Friday with lows in the 30s and probably some bouts of mist, drizzle, rain, and just about anything in between.

[Jagno]

Okay, our weatherman actually posted this on facebook.



Let me start this post off with a big caution that this is only ONE model solution of many on the table for later this week in Louisiana but the 12z GFS run is depicting a "Cold-Core Upper Low" (These manufacture their own cold air aloft)
and is trying to spit out some "winter precip" across the state late Wednesday night into Thursday. Now I am not buying this solution yet, but a few other models hinted at this system earlier this week before loosing it. Will continue to monitor future trends in the models but needless to say, we are entering a more winter-like pattern along the Gulf region. Again, let me state that this is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, only sharing some interesting model solutions for the "winter weather lovers." I will have my official forecast on here a little later this afternoon after all the model data comes in.-Cedric


And none of you are mentioning this at all????????????

[BigB0882]

I saw some snow but it was confined to the northern most part of the state on the 12z GFS run and into extreme NE Texas. This has been mentioned in the Texas winter thread. I didn't really mention it because I don't know of anyone who follows this thread that lives in Northern Louisiana.

[LaBreeze]

Okay, our weatherman actually posted this on facebook.



Let me start this post off with a big caution that this is only ONE model solution of many on the table for later this week in Louisiana but the 12z GFS run is depicting a "Cold-Core Upper Low" (These manufacture their own cold air aloft)
and is trying to spit out some "winter precip" across the state late Wednesday night into Thursday. Now I am not buying this solution yet, but a few other models hinted at this system earlier this week before loosing it. Will continue to monitor future trends in the models but needless to say, we are entering a more winter-like pattern along the Gulf region. Again, let me state that this is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, only sharing some interesting model solutions for the "winter weather lovers." I will have my official forecast on here a little later this afternoon after all the model data comes in.-Cedric


And none of you are mentioning this at all????????????

Is this out of KPLC in Lake Charles? I was wondering if Cedric jumps the gun or not? What do you think? Nothing like this is being mentioned out of the Lafayette stations.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like someone could be in for a surprise Wednesday night/Thursday. If this low would track a little further south some frozen precip wouldn't be out of the question as far south as I-10 IMO.


12z NAM

[vbhoutex]

Nice looking cold core low. Will definitely be interesting to watch and see what happens. Possible "dump" for some areas??

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS...starting to look interesting, the low is getting oh so close!

1000-500mb thickness


1000-850mb thickness


QPF isn't exactly overwhelming but seems like the profiles could support some light snow/sleet around and to the north of my area. Surface temps look above freezing so I wouldn't expect any accumulation.

[BigB0882]

Didn't the low that brought us so much rain last week track further south and east of where it was forecast? I may be remembering wrong. I hope it tracks further south so we have a shot to see something. Cold rain is the worst.

[Kennethb]

Didn't the low that brought us so much rain last week track further south and east of where it was forecast? I may be remembering wrong. I hope it tracks further south so we have a shot to see something. Cold rain is the worst.

So do you prefer the warm and wet of last week or the cold and wet this week?

Only had 2.25 inches of rain from 2:00 pm yesterday to 5:30 am this morning here in south Baton Rouge!!

[PTrackerLA]

Picked up 1.50" at the house since yesterday taking us to over a FOOT this month alone. I don't mind the cold but I'm so sick of the rain and clouds just rooting for the very outside shot at some snow Wed night/Thurs and then bring on the sun!!!

The afternoon NWS discussions and model runs should prove interesting, look at this snippet from NWS Lake Charles:

FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WILL BE TAKING A LOOK AT THE PROSPECTS
FOR WINTER WEATHER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.