SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Put an oscillating sprinkler on top of your roof and let it run all night

[LaBreeze]

Forecast high was 36 but it has only reach 33 as of 3pm with mostly cloudy skies now. We'll drop below freezing fairly soon but I don't think we'll get into the teens with all the cirrus streaming out of Mexico. A cold night nevertheless just wish it would snow!

Let's hope that they hold through the night and into the morning - they could erode in the early morning hours leaving enough time for the temps to drop further.

[BigB0882]

Project icicle is over. The water hose is frozen solid and no water will run through it.

[BigB0882]

Did anyone take notice of the ever-trustworthy 300 hr 12Z GFS? It has snow for SETX and all of South Louisiana. 3-5 inches for almost everyone. I am going to go ahead and cash in on that one.

[vbhoutex]

Did anyone take notice of the ever-trustworthy 300 hr 12Z GFS? It has snow for SETX and all of South Louisiana. 3-5 inches for almost everyone. I am going to go ahead and cash in on that one.

Yep, been talking about it a little on FB. Something to watch for sure, but I'm not about to get excited about it anytime soon.
Meanwhile it is 26.9f at my place with partly cloudy skies. The clouds appear to be breaking up. IF that trend continues we will easily see upper teens over a large portion of the Houston metro area.
However, the ULL to our WSW, which is expected to weaken this evening, seems to be "filling in" based on current radar which is showing Wintry precip in the RGV area moving to the ENE. If that "trend" continues, a lot of people could be in for a snowprise in the morning. Not about to count on it, but that ULL doesn't look to be getting any weaker to me.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the airport here hit 20 degrees. It seems the teens will continue to remain elusive since 1996!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Made it down to 20 around here as well. Happened just before sunrise. It was still in the mid 20's after midnight. Made it up to 27 so far. ProJected high is 40, we'll see. Have dropped temps way down for tonight. Yesterday they were 27 and have since dropped to 20 again.

[vbhoutex]

Woke up to 23f this am. Now up to 38f with sun. Mid 40s looks like a possibility today. How sweet would that be after a high of 33f yesterday? Now we are looking at 70s by the weekend. January thaw or just another pertubation? Our winds have turned from the East so we know the high pressure is moving off to the East as predicted.

[PTrackerLA]

22 this AM after a high of only 37 yesterday. Looks like we are heading for a balmy 50 degrees today, should be nice!

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS shows Lafayette receiving nearly 1/3 of an inch of freezing rain Thursday night into Friday. Will be interesting to see if this is a trend or just a fluke run.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KLFT

[vbhoutex]

18z GFS shows Lafayette receiving nearly 1/3 of an inch of freezing rain Thursday night into Friday. Will be interesting to see if this is a trend or just a fluke run.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KLFT

I haven't looked closely yet, but the trend of the chatter here is saying about the same for us. I guess I better take a closer look.
And a closer look says maybe for the metro and probably for the far Northern burbs. We shall see if the models hold on to it.
And an even closer look says it will be nip and tuck as to whether SE TX and Houston metro area "have fun"(no ice is NOT FUN!!). Definitely will be watching more closely as the week progresses because I even heard a local ocm mention "wintry precip.".

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like 12z GFS and Euro now keep all the moisture to our south. I'd say winter precipitation chances are decreasing but upper 20s look like a bet for Friday morning.

[BigB0882]

I am going to keep an eye on it. 5 days out is a long way away and the temps and/or precip could continue to change drastically. As I said in the Texas thread, I will settle for a solid threat if it cancels schools in the area on Friday. haha

[vbhoutex]

Afternoon Update from Jeff:

Powerful arctic cold front will arrive after mid week with some potential for wintery precipitation.

It does not get much better than this in mid-January…current afternoon temperatures at 300pm range from 80 at Victoria to 76 at BUSH IAH and 79 at Brenham. As is usually the case when it gets this warm in January cold air is not far behind and this week will be no different.

Upper air pattern is currently undergoing amplification along the US west coast with large scale ridging building into Alaska and the downstream trough located over the Midwest into NE US. A shot of cold air will pass across the region tonight into Tuesday with highs on Tuesday running 15-20 degrees colder than today (55-60) versus (75-80). Will see gusty NW winds on Tuesday along with lower RH so fire danger will be elevated. Cold Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s across the region rebounding into the mid 60’s by afternoon with SSW winds.

Thursday-Friday:

Forecast challenges are plenty in this period as a strong arctic air mass plows down the plains into TX and an upper level storm system then moves across the state with the cold arctic dome in place bringing P-type questions into the forecast. Arctic boundary should plow southward on Wednesday and push off the TX coast on Thursday with little appearing to slow the boundary or prevent the cold air from penetrating southward. Latest model guidance appears to be trending colder with the front as is common with shallow and fast moving arctic boundaries. Temperatures will fall rapidly on Thursday with the passage of the boundary and onset of cold air advection off the plains. Highs near 60 prior to the front will fall into the 40’s by late afternoon under gusty NW winds…and then into the 30’s and possibly 20’s by Friday morning.

While the cold air is filtering southward and upper level trough will be approaching the state from the WSW which will help induce a coastal surface trough slinging moisture northward over the cold dome. There will be a battle as to how much moisture can work northward against the southward moving dry air and what will the temperatures profile look like if and when the northward moving moisture wins out and the air mass over the area is able to produce precipitation.

Current thinking is that moisture may be just enough along with favorable lift to produce some amount of precipitation when the air mass at the surface is at or below freezing. Current forecast soundings support a mixture of sleet and freezing rain. Of course the position of the 32F line at the surface becomes very critical is determining what surface impacts of falling sleet or rain would have. Below 32F would possibly result in some accumulation of ice (freezing rain) or sleet and above 32 would result in sleet melting or just plain rain. Current indications suggest most of the area except the immediate coast could be at or below 32F by Friday morning. Good news is that currently the precipitation amounts look fairly light (below .05 of an inch)…but as we saw back in early December even .01 of an inch of freezing drizzle can cause some big problems on bridges. Given thick cloud cover and cold air advection think temperatures will go nowhere on Friday with a very small range between lows and highs and most likely temperatures hovering in the low to mid 30’s all day.

As with all winter weather episodes in this area the uncertainty is large especially at this range and will probably not get much better until about 24-36 hours before the onset of the event (late Wednesday into Thursday AM).

GFS model brings more precipitation into the area on Saturday again with very cold surface temperatures in place especially in the morning however other guidance is not as wet and think the GFS may be overdoing the rainfall. Still looks cold with highs on Saturday possibly only in the 40’s if it stays cloudy….50’s if the sun is able to break through.

[BigB0882]

NWS forecasts now show 20% of rain/sleet Thursday night and Friday morning. Hopefully the trends only go up and we can get those percentages higher. I would love if this came in with a lot more moisture than anticipated, a lot of us would get in on the fun.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Will probably show us getting snow and sleet Friday then Wednesday take it all away and warm.

[BigB0882]

I feel confident it won't be warm but I bet the precip does go away. Just our luck. haha

[Jagno]

Well our chances are ever so gradually increasing for precipitation but it's beginning to sound more like an ice event than snow event.
From the NWS:

Thursday Night A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[BigB0882]

Is it possible that a coastal low could end up forming or is this precip coming from a totally different feature? I am not sure I understand exactly what is creating the precip in the first place.

[BigB0882]

I am still confused on the potential Friday system. SELA doesn't seem to be in on the action (only extreme SWLA does) but I'm not sure if that is because the system is coming over us or because the models aren't quite going out far enough to show the eastern progression. Also what about the coastal lows a model or two may be hinting at? Would that increase our chances over here? I don't want to get excited but I feel this is some of the best potential we have had in a while.