Texas Winter 2015-2016

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The RAP is digging tomorrow night's system a little deeper than the other guidance.

[Brent]

And who doesn't love seeing January of 1978 hit up on the analog pool twice...throw in 1985 sure why not!

http://i67.tinypic.com/rk3atz.gif

Where do I sign up for the January February 1978 analog?

[aggiecutter]

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/ne ... -outbreaks

January 1985: 13.2 inches of snow in San Antonio, Texas (Jan. 12), crushed the previous 24-hour snow record, there. Austin and Houston (3 inches each) also were blanketed by this snowstorm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/america-coldest-outbreaks

January 1985: 13.2 inches of snow in San Antonio, Texas (Jan. 12), crushed the previous 24-hour snow record, there. Austin and Houston (3 inches each) also were blanketed by this snowstorm.

The setup is quite similar actually, i just looked at it. The high was a 1048MB high that crossed the border and held together pretty well. The high coming down this weekend needs to be a tad bigger for the moisture to be snow.

[South Texas Storms]

The 0z GFS is indicating that Austin and the Hill Country could see up to 1 inch of snow this weekend.

[Brent]

Winter is here..



The GFS has a bigger storm around 240 hours and then dumps the coldest air of the winter behind it around January 10-12th with highs in the 20s for 2 days at DFW and lows in the teens

[Brent]

Almost looks like a famous signature on the Euro for New Years Eve:



STJ appears to be on fire towards in the 7-10 day range

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah the subtropical jet looks like it will become active over the next 2 weeks at least. In fact, the overall pattern across the U.S. looks very El-Nino like during this time period as well.

[Texas Snowman]

After this weekend's flooding rains, there is little doubt that 2015 had been a remarkable year of precipitation here in Denison/Sherman:

"NWS Meteorologist Jennifer Dunn said the Grayson County area reported rainfall amounts that ranged from five to nearly seven inches this weekend. Dunn said that rainfall put the area’s total rainfall at 74.33 inches for the year. She said the area is not expected to receive any more rainfall for the rest of 2015.

Earlier this month, Dunn said the previous record for this area was 66.21 inches, which was set in 2009."

- See more at: http://m.heralddemocrat.com/news/local/ ... 3LpvZ.dpuf

[wxman57]

Looks like I'll finish 2015 with just under 80" of rain at my house (79.81"). 2016 is starting out wet, too. Should be a cold, wet New Year's weekend.

[Ntxw]

Uncertainties later this week. High and mid level Pacific moisture will stream in via STJ while dry air at the surface fights it off.

Regardless if you plan on going out for NYE it will be cold. Major storm signal hinting around the 10th

[hriverajr]

GFS right now is the only model showing a bit of a chance for snow for southwest and central Texas. oh well..

[Ntxw]

To illustrate the system potential near the 10th

Well established split flow regime with ridging over NW NA delivering cold to the eastern 2/3rd US. This will not likely be a panhandle hooker under a blocking signal. Probably SoCal-Texas-Gulf Coast type track. Southern California will feel it first with crashing waves and flooding rains.





This system will feature a powerful STJ. 130-150knots

[Portastorm]

GFS right now is the only model showing a bit of a chance for snow for southwest and central Texas. oh well..

As a good buddy of mine, a private sector meteorologist, told me this morning: "Do not forget the 11th commandment: Thou shall not buy into any model run beyond 100 hours, especially the GFS."

Remember Charlie Brown. And Lucy. And the dang football!

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold air mass firmly entrenched over the area…will continue for the next several days.

Cold surface high pressure that has built over TX behind the departing weekend storm system will begin to shift eastward today allowing moisture to surge over top of the surface cold dome. Clouds have already increased overnight and expect a continued thicken and lowering of the cloud deck today as moisture increases above the surface. A short wave over the SW US will move across the southern plains tonight dragging another cold front across the area on Wednesday. Will likely see just enough moisture for drizzle and light rain tonight especially along the coast and offshore.

Much colder air mass filters into the region on NYE and NYD with continued SW flow aloft brining Pacific moisture across the area. A stronger short wave within this sub-tropical flow moves toward the area NYD and next weekend with cold air locked in place at the surface. Rain chances will start to increase late NYE and continue into NYD and at least most of Saturday if not early Sunday. Will need to keep a close watch on dewpoints and surface temperatures Friday morning, Saturday morning, and Sunday morning across our north and western counties for any potential for a mixture of winter precipitation. Current model soundings and forecasted temps/dewpoints should keep everything liquid, but potential for rain mixed with sleet and snow will be possible by Friday night over portions of the Hill County into central TX. Highs on Friday and Saturday will likely remain in the 40’s over the entire area, possibly even the upper 30’s across our northern counties.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I see my first love, Thunder Sleet, in the near future for our area. Oh how I've missed you, please rear your head again!

[Tireman4]

Oh boy...Larry Cosgrove is thinking winter mischief for our area (Houston-Galveston)...woo hoo...stay tuned. This is on his Facebook page.

[hriverajr]

GFS right now is the only model showing a bit of a chance for snow for southwest and central Texas. oh well..

As a good buddy of mine, a private sector meteorologist, told me this morning: "Do not forget the 11th commandment: Thou shall not buy into any model run beyond 100 hours, especially the GFS."

Remember Charlie Brown. And Lucy. And the dang football!

Thats true except I feel the general pattern is there... temps will be marginal. A little upslope at surface and at also at 850 against the mountains.. I think DRT might have a chance again... I was right on my original prediction for west central texas snow :p Was pleasantly surprised it snowed here in Del Rio, Near the lake it actually stuck for awhile. (Did not think it would be that severe though)

So not giving up hope..

[Portastorm]

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying to give up hope. There's always hope!

I'm just saying, like all of us should, be cautious in our hope lest you fall hard on your backside after the football is lifted prior to you kicking it. As has been said on this forum and shown by many good posts in the last week ... winter has returned and the pattern ripe for possibilities.

It's crazy to see the both KAUS (airport) and KATT (Camp Mabry) are within an inch and a half of reaching 60" total precip for the year. That is roughly 25" above normal! I see that Del Rio is at 27.8" for the year which is almost 8 1/2" above normal.

[Ralph's Weather]

Amazing map of precip to date for the state. Couple 100" spots in SE TX, 70" over significant areas of the E/3 of the state and some 40" spots in the Panhandle and W TX.