Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh boy...Larry Cosgrove is thinking winter mischief for our area (Houston-Galveston)...woo hoo...stay tuned. This is on his Facebook page.

For what timeframe? I couldnt find it on his page. I believe it though

[Ntxw]

This El Nino has produced a prolific water year for the state of Texas. Comparable only to 1957 and the period from 1990-1991. Everybody has seen more rain than they need. And many have seen records fall.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

You have to give Portastorm some slack for being cautious. The kicking game in Austin this year was suspect and so says Chralie Strong. Winter is back and so is your Corpus Christi observer hoping for some winter fun down this way soon. Thank god that front rolled in on Sunday because Saturday was like a wind blown humidifier times two down here. Yuck.

[hriverajr]

You have to give Portastorm some slack for being cautious. The kicking game in Austin this year was suspect and so says Chralie Strong. Winter is back and so is your Corpus Christi observer hoping for some winter fun down this way soon. Thank god that front rolled in on Sunday because Saturday was like a wind blown humidifier times two down here. Yuck.

our afternoon of snow had no chance of sticking here in the city, it reached 80+ the day before.. but it was nice to be out in... It was really coming down for awhile....I think we get a bit of lake effect if you ask me...

[downsouthman1]

This El Nino has produced a prolific water year for the state of Texas. Comparable only to 1957 and the period from 1990-1991. Everybody has seen more rain than they need. And many have seen records fall.

I'm surprised by this fact because El Nino typically has only fall & winter impacts on us. And even though our summer was normal, a lot can be said about how much water fell from the sky this past spring. I just wonder if El Nino's effects will do what they normally do & produce copious amounts of rain through the winter. So far, so good. Except I was surprised by the snow/blizzard out west. More cold air has already come south than I expected this winter. I had previously thought El Nino would block it, like it did in 1997/8.

[Ntxw]

I'm surprised by this fact because El Nino typically has only fall & winter impacts on us. And even though our summer was normal, a lot can be said about how much water fell from the sky this past spring. I just wonder if El Nino's effects will do what they normally do & produce copious amounts of rain through the winter. So far, so good. Except I was surprised by the snow/blizzard out west. More cold air has already come south than I expected this winter. I had previously thought El Nino would block it, like it did in 1997/8.

El Nino's impacts are greatest fall and winter but that does not mean there is no impact elsewhere. It is a quiet background state. It can juice up moisture and connect with EPAC systems in other seasons too turning your typical 1-3" cluster of thunderstorms into 3-5" deluges. It is not always prevalent but an increase in odds.

To heck with the models, I say put up the freezing drizzle watches for KAUS

...not really, but hey there is a chance

[davidiowx]

Oh boy...Larry Cosgrove is thinking winter mischief for our area (Houston-Galveston)...woo hoo...stay tuned. This is on his Facebook page.

Please elaborate!!

Edit: Never mind, found it. Should be be interesting but he is talking about 10+ days away..

[wxman57]

Oh boy...Larry Cosgrove is thinking winter mischief for our area (Houston-Galveston)...woo hoo...stay tuned. This is on his Facebook page.

For what timeframe? I couldnt find it on his page. I believe it though

12Z GFS has the Houston area freeze line up above 10,000ft through the duration of the rain. No temps even close to freezing below 700mb (10,000ft). Nothing to indicate anything frozen could reach the surface.

Here's a plot of the projected vertical temperature profile for the Houston area as the precip is starting to ease-up on Saturday. The lower atmosphere starts drying out after 18Z Saturday.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS does indicate possible sleet in the Austin area as the precip comes to an end on Saturday. Note the shallow sub-freezing layer just above the surface:

[Portastorm]

I will be most curious to see how the Euro trends over the next 24 hours. If it trends in the direction of the GFS, there might be something to get excited about. But right now it is showing no chance of any frozen precip in or near the Austin metro area.

Still a long, long ways out in model-land.

Wish I would have taken some photos from that hailstorm the other day. The ground was white, I swear! LOL. What an amazing storm system that was.

[Ntxw]

That skew T of Austin has a lot of snow 10k feet and up. Can we jettison the PWC mets from an aircraft, sky dive per-se?

[Portastorm]

That skew T of Austin has a lot of snow 10k feet and up. Can we jettison the PWC mets from an aircraft, sky dive per-se?

Maybe I can get Coach Sumlin to bring his Swagcopter over here and give us a ride since he's not using it much these days. (oh yeah, I went there).

Hey, how about our friend hriverajr in Del Rio?! He got snow before Dallas did.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Is this next possible system just a central/south Texas chance, or does north TX get in on any of the possible action?

[hriverajr]

That skew T of Austin has a lot of snow 10k feet and up. Can we jettison the PWC mets from an aircraft, sky dive per-se?

Maybe I can get Coach Sumlin to bring his Swagcopter over here and give us a ride since he's not using it much these days. (oh yeah, I went there).

Hey, how about our friend hriverajr in Del Rio?! He got snow before Dallas did.

12Z still gives us a shot in Del Rio, no matter what Mr. Debby Downer says..hehe... Unfortunately not in Austin, and definitely not in Houston according to the 12z GFS Run... we will just have to see.

[Ntxw]

Is this next possible system just a central/south Texas chance, or does north TX get in on any of the possible action?

We are cold enough but too dry near the surface. Unless the models are vastly underestimating the stj in such overrunning events. Most of the moisture will be in S TX while a dome of cold HP sinks in

[wxman57]

Oh boy...Larry Cosgrove is thinking winter mischief for our area (Houston-Galveston)...woo hoo...stay tuned. This is on his Facebook page.

For what timeframe? I couldnt find it on his page. I believe it though

By the way, Larry's time frame was January 10-14, not this coming weekend.

[Texas Snowman]

Larry Cosgrove, Facebook:

"The most recent runs of the Canadian and European ensemble packages show potential for cross-polar flow and a Siberian intrusion, as well as the threat for a significant, or worse, winter storm affecting Texas, the Old South, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. Cold air makes its first meaningful push January 6-8; the chance for widespread snow and ice (maybe rain thunder along the coastlines) is targeted for January 10-14. Given the impressive stratospheric warming event and inputs from tropical forcing, I suspect this tendency for widespread cold and increased frozen precipitation is going to be around for a long while."

[Ralph's Weather]

Is this next possible system just a central/south Texas chance, or does north TX get in on any of the possible action?

We are cold enough but too dry near the surface. Unless the models are vastly underestimating the stj in such overrunning events. Most of the moisture will be in S TX while a dome of cold HP sinks in

If only the STJ can do its work up here. Wherever the boundary between Arctic air and enough moisture meets there will be some winter precip, but that looks to be over Central Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Larry Cosgrove, Facebook:

"The most recent runs of the Canadian and European ensemble packages show potential for cross-polar flow and a Siberian intrusion, as well as the threat for a significant, or worse, winter storm affecting Texas, the Old South, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. Cold air makes its first meaningful push January 6-8; the chance for widespread snow and ice (maybe rain thunder along the coastlines) is targeted for January 10-14. Given the impressive stratospheric warming event and inputs from tropical forcing, I suspect this tendency for widespread cold and increased frozen precipitation is going to be around for a long while."

It is odd that the GFS does not show much cold anywhere with this since it has a PV split around day 11 and a 500mb vortex near the Great Lakes.

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove, Facebook:

"The most recent runs of the Canadian and European ensemble packages show potential for cross-polar flow and a Siberian intrusion, as well as the threat for a significant, or worse, winter storm affecting Texas, the Old South, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. Cold air makes its first meaningful push January 6-8; the chance for widespread snow and ice (maybe rain thunder along the coastlines) is targeted for January 10-14. Given the impressive stratospheric warming event and inputs from tropical forcing, I suspect this tendency for widespread cold and increased frozen precipitation is going to be around for a long while."

It is odd that the GFS does not show much cold anywhere with this since it has a PV split around day 11 and a 500mb vortex near the Great Lakes.

It's not unusual for the GFS to struggle in the longer range particularly when so many dynamics are in play. Typically we see a lot of volatility when the AO crashes and the SSW event is finally realized. The lag time is usually in the 10-20 day period. We are seeing the SSW continue to increase and the AO will not drop into a strongly negative territory until after the New Year. That said the various indicators via Rosby Waves, MJO Phase 7/8, Kelvin Wave progression East of the Dateline and the PNA spike and AO crash seem to be well recognized by the ensembles. Stepping down folks. Winter is coming...