Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TropicalTundra]

That 12z ICON isn’t horrible at all, the storm track is just a bit more north so Brent gets all the snow also still decently cold and keeps many below freezing too

[Harp.1]

12z Euro coming in even more aggressive with winter weather in south central and se texas lol

Louisiana??

[wxman22]

12Z Euro has two storms the first across south central and southeast Texas.With another major winter storm around the 10th

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 yall get in on the fun on that run too

[Harp.1]

The Euro seems consistent with this, yes? And the GFS occasionally joins in

[wxman22]

Storm #1




Storm #2

[Brent]

Most of Texas gets more snow than me on the Euro

Clearly something is coming

[Cpv17]

Most of Texas gets more snow than me on the Euro

Coastal lows rob Oklahoma.

[BigB0882]

Wxman22, any chance you can share some images of those same storms as it moves further east? Curious if the snow makes it to LA/MS etc.

[Cpv17]

The Euro seems consistent with this, yes? And the GFS occasionally joins in

I wouldn’t call it consistent yet.

[Brent]

I'd say the Euro has been consistent in showing something potentially historic but beyond that nobody knows. It's not gonna be exactly right with snow at 200 hours

Again it's more the signal for something

[wxman22]

Wxman22, any chance you can share some images of those same storms as it moves further east? Curious if the snow makes it to LA/MS etc.

.

[Ntxw]

Overrunning is what the Euro has before the main low. Still as noted before, it's good for us when stuff digs south and west, then disturbances ride over the cold air mass. GFS is extreme and dry, never bringing it out. Euro sends impulses and then comes out. That type of set up can really bring a rare high qpf event.

Definitely way too far out to be excited but there are good trends, but still ways it could fail.

[Ntxw]

I'd say the Euro has been consistent in showing something potentially historic but beyond that nobody knows. It's not gonna be exactly right with snow at 200 hours

Again it's more the signal for something

I agree, we want to see each run to continue to build on the trough. The phasing the Euro has it's uncommon, usually happens to our west or east where they get big snows with occluding lows. Sweet spot being on the fringe of core midwest cold.

[Portastorm]

Overrunning is what the Euro has before the main low. Still as noted before, it's good for us when stuff digs south and west, then disturbances ride over the cold air mass. GFS is extreme and dry, never bringing it out. Euro sends impulses and then comes out. That type of set up can really bring a rare high qpf event.

Definitely way too far out to be excited but there are good trends, but still ways it could fail.

Looking far out (days 9-10) there definitely appears to be consensus about energy in the southwest when you look at the 500mb patterns in both the GFS and Euro. The GFS breaks off the low off the Baja coastline while the Euro has it associated with the long wave trough over the middle two-thirds of the CONUS. The GFS having the energy pressed down by developing Pacific NW high pressure and then backing it off the West Coast seems implausible. You just don't see that happen very often. Also, I have seen the ICON do a good job in the last year in different seasons. I'm watching that closely along with the ensembles.

[Gotwood]

Wild euro run. Temps go at our below freezing for my area on the 6th then stay there till the 14th which then shows another blast of cold coming from Canada.

[Ntxw]

Overrunning is what the Euro has before the main low. Still as noted before, it's good for us when stuff digs south and west, then disturbances ride over the cold air mass. GFS is extreme and dry, never bringing it out. Euro sends impulses and then comes out. That type of set up can really bring a rare high qpf event.

Definitely way too far out to be excited but there are good trends, but still ways it could fail.

Looking far out (days 9-10) there definitely appears to be consensus about energy in the southwest when you look at the 500mb patterns in both the GFS and Euro. The GFS breaks off the low off the Baja coastline while the Euro has it associated with the long wave trough over the middle two-thirds of the CONUS. The GFS having the energy pressed down by developing Pacific NW high pressure and then backing it off the West Coast seems implausible. You just don't see that happen very often. Also, I have seen the ICON do a good job in the last year in different seasons. I'm watching that closely along with the ensembles.

To add we've only had this Baja dip low set up within the past 24 hours of runs, so it's fairly a new feature having PVa streamer come down to kick it out. CMC doesn't yet have that and cuts off the baja low deep into Mexico.

[Brandon8181]

Overrunning is what the Euro has before the main low. Still as noted before, it's good for us when stuff digs south and west, then disturbances ride over the cold air mass. GFS is extreme and dry, never bringing it out. Euro sends impulses and then comes out. That type of set up can really bring a rare high qpf event.

Definitely way too far out to be excited but there are good trends, but still ways it could fail.

Help me to remember....my age is really starting to get to me as I can barely remember what happened yesterday, but wasn't this type of set up somewhat similar to what happened maybe back around 2010 or so when the north Texas counties got DUMPED with 12 inches plus of snow and the NWS kept increasing the snowfall forecast as it happened?

[Ntxw]

Overrunning is what the Euro has before the main low. Still as noted before, it's good for us when stuff digs south and west, then disturbances ride over the cold air mass. GFS is extreme and dry, never bringing it out. Euro sends impulses and then comes out. That type of set up can really bring a rare high qpf event.

Definitely way too far out to be excited but there are good trends, but still ways it could fail.

Help me to remember....my age is really starting to get to me as I can barely remember what happened yesterday, but wasn't this type of set up somewhat similar to what happened maybe back around 2010 or so when the north Texas counties got DUMPED with 12 inches plus of snow and the NWS kept increasing the snowfall forecast as it happened?

Yeah nearly all of the memorable snow storms in the southern plains are like this. DFW 2010, OKC 2009, Hillsboro 1929, San Antonio 1985, and probably Houston's 1895 events. Cold comes first, then a southwest system on the back end of the trough pumps up copious moisture and very likely phasing with northern stream coming down. It's just the details of where it comes out.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Overrunning is what the Euro has before the main low. Still as noted before, it's good for us when stuff digs south and west, then disturbances ride over the cold air mass. GFS is extreme and dry, never bringing it out. Euro sends impulses and then comes out. That type of set up can really bring a rare high qpf event.

Definitely way too far out to be excited but there are good trends, but still ways it could fail.

Looking far out (days 9-10) there definitely appears to be consensus about energy in the southwest when you look at the 500mb patterns in both the GFS and Euro. The GFS breaks off the low off the Baja coastline while the Euro has it associated with the long wave trough over the middle two-thirds of the CONUS. The GFS having the energy pressed down by developing Pacific NW high pressure and then backing it off the West Coast seems implausible. You just don't see that happen very often. Also, I have seen the ICON do a good job in the last year in different seasons. I'm watching that closely along with the ensembles.

To add we've only had this Baja dip low set up within the past 24 hours of runs, so it's fairly a new feature having PVa streamer come down to kick it out. CMC doesn't yet have that and cuts off the baja low deep into Mexico.

I've been saying this for a while. Get trough further west, we be in better shape imo. Also, like you alluded to, mjo is important. I would like to see a small propagation, if possible to extend winter as long as possible.