Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[austinrunner]

By a week from today according to the GFS model, 500 mb heights in central North America become from 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations above normal all the way from central Mexico to central Manitoba. There will be below to much below normal heights in Alaska and the eastern United States. No arctic air in Texas would result from that pattern.

But the high res ECMWF has the ridge farther west, with the long wave trough anchored in the Missouri Valley, and 850 mb temperatures up to 2 standard deviations below normal in Texas. The 0 degree isotherm extends from Beaumont to Houston to Austin to Lubbock, with -5 degrees from Tyler to Dallas to Wichita Falls.

[Portastorm]

By a week from today according to the GFS model, 500 mb heights in central North America become from 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations above normal all the way from central Mexico to central Manitoba. There will be below to much below normal heights in Alaska and the eastern United States. No arctic air in Texas would result from that pattern.

But the high res ECMWF has the ridge farther west, with the long wave trough anchored in the Missouri Valley, and 850 mb temperatures up to 2 standard deviations below normal in Texas. The 0 degree isotherm extends from Beaumont to Houston to Austin to Lubbock, with -5 degrees from Tyler to Dallas to Wichita Falls.

I assume you're referring to the 0z runs? Not much consistency from the GFS, I'm afraid. Compare the 500mb pattern from the 0z @ 180 hours to the 12z @ 168 hrs ... we go from a trough in the East and ridging out west to a straight west-to-east zonal flow across the continental US. I'll be curious to see what the 12z Euro does.

FWIW, the 0z Canadian (CMC) and the UKMET also look a lot like the 0z Euro run depicting the pattern this time next week.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It appears that some light returns are starting to show up directly under the low that's moving our way. Any thoughts on this system?

[Ntxw]

It appears that some light returns are starting to show up directly under the low that's moving our way. Any thoughts on this system?

Atmosphere is very dry and worked up from over the weekend. And frankly temps/dewpoints are very high for any snow event. I would be surprised if anyone saw drizzle nonetheless snow.

Looks dry heading into the New Years. Next cold wave probably heads more east/southeast than our direction so some nice weather with cool nights to New Years! Take it and enjoy it before we head into the meat of winter average wise!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What model would you guys trust after the GFS and the Euro? The GFS has gone bonkers this year. The Euro looks more believable right now, but is there a third model that we can look at that has credibility?

[Ntxw]

What model would you guys trust after the GFS and the Euro? The GFS has gone bonkers this year. The Euro looks more believable right now, but is there a third model that we can look at that has credibility?

Imo this is what I would look for in that order

Euro-very good within 3-5 days, seldom flip flops
Euro Ensembles are often good for looking at long term trends
Ukmet (though data is limited)
GFS ensembles
GFS
Canadian/CMC/GGEM (at times can outdo GFS, good for verification vs other models, Wxman says look for shortwaves via this guidance. Often is too cold though)
NAM (is high resolution like euro so looking for moisture/qpf under 24 hours is good)
HRW hi resolution like the nam is good within 12-24 hours
RUC/Rapid Family good for live or within 12 hours.

Common sites often used:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html - Has basically every model

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html - Same and if you know how to read it very simple for basic user

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm - bit more complex but has cool detailed stuff like snow maps


http://www.ecmwf.int/ - Public site for Euro

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html-Environment Canada
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html - Op Canadian model

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller - Ncep's American models

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ - Climate prediction center, has Nino status and teleconnections/MJO

[Mattie]

Raining in McKinney Texas

[Snowshoe]

Well this place is going to be boring for a while! Hopefully talk to you guys soon:(

[gpsnowman]

Well this place is going to be boring for a while! Hopefully talk to you guys soon:(

I know and it is depressing. Is there nothing in the long range even worth discussing? No winter for the entire lower 48 so far this year. Yes, some places have seen a little winter but overall this season has been a big bust nation wide. I'm not throwing in the towel yet as much of winter remains. Please Old Man Winter, send us something.

[iorange55]

We'll have something to discuss before you know it! It probably won't be for a couple of weeks, but it will come.

[hriverajr]

Well last three runs or so extremely lalala land GFS is trying to hint at a return of split flow pattern, around the 7th of January. Will just have to see if it continues that trend. As far as GFS goes I see nothing earth shattering till then

[Ntxw]

Well this place is going to be boring for a while! Hopefully talk to you guys soon:(

I know and it is depressing. Is there nothing in the long range even worth discussing? No winter for the entire lower 48 so far this year. Yes, some places have seen a little winter but overall this season has been a big bust nation wide. I'm not throwing in the towel yet as much of winter remains. Please Old Man Winter, send us something.

February is our month. At least it has been the past several years. Realistically not much happened aside from a few blips last year or even 09 (it was split between western/eastern area snows here and there not metro/state wide) until Feb! Once that month passes, then we can panic We are overdue for a Galveston Bay freeze off! Also DFW on average sees March snow every other winter, 08, 2010, so 2012 is next in line!

[austinrunner]

By a week from today according to the GFS model, 500 mb heights in central North America become from 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations above normal all the way from central Mexico to central Manitoba. There will be below to much below normal heights in Alaska and the eastern United States. No arctic air in Texas would result from that pattern.

But the high res ECMWF has the ridge farther west, with the long wave trough anchored in the Missouri Valley, and 850 mb temperatures up to 2 standard deviations below normal in Texas. The 0 degree isotherm extends from Beaumont to Houston to Austin to Lubbock, with -5 degrees from Tyler to Dallas to Wichita Falls.

According to the 12/27 00Z GFS model run, 500 mb heights in most of Texas on 2 January will be 2 standard deviations above normal, with above normal heights extending from Central America all the way to northern Alberta. Below to much below normal heights will be in Alaska (1.5 standard deviations), off the US west coast (2 standard deviations), and centered in New England. The 0 degree 850 mb isotherm is no closer to Texas than northern Missouri and southern Nebraska. The GFS ensembles are similar. Again, no arctic air in Texas would result from that pattern.

The 12/26 12Z hi res ECMWF is as discussed above.

[Rgv20]

Have not had a whole lot of time to check on the models recently but tonight's 0zECMWF brings a pretty good shot of cold air for early next week. It looks like the brunt of the cold air should stay to the east of Texas tho.

[austinrunner]

There are major differences of opinion among the National Weather Service forecast offices in Texas about whether to go with the ECMWF or GFS solution.

[wxman57]

A week ago, the Euro was forecasting widespread freezing conditions from TX to FL today/tomorrow. The problem has been a lack of cold air in western Canada. Current Euro is forecasting a freeze down to the Gulf Coast early next week (again), but at the same time it's forecasting temps in western and central Canada to be 20-35 deg above normal. So there's a good chance it's 5-8 deg too cold for temps down south next week.

[Ntxw]

Yeah im not buying it either, at least not that cold. The pna spike does allow for cooling like we just had Christmas around new years or just after. At least Alaska is getting cold so maybe that might come down in the future. For now its the battle between gfs and euro mid range which are complete opposites as usual lol.

[Portastorm]

Pattern-wise, my pesos are on King Euro. The GFS has flailed about lately like kids at a birthday party trying to hit a pinata.

Interestingly enough, I gotta give props to the NAM for how it handled this past weekend's system. I feel it was the best model within 48-72 hours.

[CaptinCrunch]

La Nina is just now showing her head, even though we will see a cool down across NTX next week we wont see any real winter weather till the mid month rolls around. As others have noted there is just not enough arctic air in western Canada to effect us here in NTX. Until the ridge returns and polor air gets dumped in to NW Canada expect a mild/cool pattern across the southern U.S.

NEW YEARS EVE THRU THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF 2012...MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND
COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEW YEARS DAY. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EITHER WAY
GUIDANCE SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NORTH TX ON NEW YEARS DAY.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER NORTH TX TO SUPPORT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY
BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RESIDES. AT THIS TIME JUST WENT
WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COME BACK DOWN
TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR LOWER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF 2012
BEHIND THIS FRONT.

[Ntxw]

For what it's worth the Canadian has jumped ship from the GFS and joined the Euro in an east coast trough, Texas gets a glancing blow of cold.