Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TheProfessor]

I guess I started getting used to some of the colder days I experienced in Ohio because 47 still felt warm.

[gpsnowman]

Anyone see a possible Winter Storm in the January 9-14 time frame across the DFW Metroplex?

Welcome to the board EnnisTx. A lot of talk and recently with all the happenings in the atmosphere. A pattern change is slowly happening and it could get interesting in the next couple weeks. Still rather early to tell what exactly will happen at this point. Below average temps for the next week should make us all forget about the disgusting warmth and humidity in recent weeks.

Thanks for the welcome! was a member years back, but been out of the loop. That's what I was thinking, Just thought I would pitch it out there for discussion, I love speculating when it comes to Winter Weather!

Well, most of it is speculation until it actually happens. That is what makes it so fun, the potential and learning from gobs of information from posters more knowledgeable than me. Welcome back!!

[hriverajr]

18z GFS continues slightly warmer trend.. my chance of snow is beginning to go away....heheh

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS continues slightly warmer trend.. my chance of snow is beginning to go away....heheh

0z NAM says not so fast. It's showing moderate snow in Del Rio on Saturday morning.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=scus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2015123000&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=51

[Brent]

FWD found another tornado in Collin County today to make 2015 the record for most tornadoes in a year since records began in 1950...

Lot of records this year...

[Ntxw]

FWD found another tornado in Collin County today to make 2015 the record for most tornadoes in a year since records began in 1950...

Lot of records this year...

Been a wild year. I remember posting last winter or early spring...when long range forecasting look for the anomalous pools in the Ocean, specifically the Pacific Ocean. When you have a crazy anomaly out of the norm (intense El Nino) then the weather follows out of the norm.

[Ntxw]

Watch the storm coming into California about 1 week from now. I'm not sure if it will be wintry yet for us, but it is the leading wave in a subtropical jet train of storms. I think it may be the kickstart of one of the most prolific subtropical jet dominated periods we will ever see in the winter time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Watch the storm coming into California about 1 week from now. I'm not sure if it will be wintry yet for us, but it is the leading wave in a subtropical jet train of storms. I think it may be the kickstart of one of the most prolific subtropical jet dominated periods we will ever see in the winter time.

This have to do with the MJO phase coming into play a bit as well?

[Portastorm]

0z GFS saying "no snow, sleet, or freezing drizzle for you, Austin" for this weekend.

[Ntxw]

This have to do with the MJO phase coming into play a bit as well?

Yeah it's all connected

[Ntxw]

Easy forecasting

[Brent]

I know we're all trying to get on with winter but I can't get over some of these incredible pictures of the Garland/Rowlett tornado:

[TexasF6]

0z GFS saying "no snow, sleet, or freezing drizzle for you, Austin" for this weekend.

Not so fast my meteorological friend!!! 6z GFS has fun back into the area, including Austin

[Tireman4]

Here. We go...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Temps were forecasted last night to be 27, with the cloud cover that moved in the temperature only got to around 31. Hopefully with it warming up in the 40s today it will help to dry up some of the standing water everywhere.

[Tammie]

Does it still look like Denton will be overcome by too much dry air to get in on the fun?

[downsouthman1]

FWD found another tornado in Collin County today to make 2015 the record for most tornadoes in a year since records began in 1950...

Lot of records this year...

Been a wild year. I remember posting last winter or early spring...when long range forecasting look for the anomalous pools in the Ocean, specifically the Pacific Ocean. When you have a crazy anomaly out of the norm (intense El Nino) then the weather follows out of the norm.

Initially, I didn't honestly believe this El Nino would be this strong. But it has become a global issue. Look at NWern Europe. This El Nino has gone viral.

[wxman57]

0z GFS saying "no snow, sleet, or freezing drizzle for you, Austin" for this weekend.

Not so fast my meteorological friend!!! 6z GFS has fun back into the area, including Austin

Yeah, the vertical profile from the 06Z GFS does indicate some frozen precip potential as the precip is coming to an end. With a weak low forming in the Gulf, the greatest available moisture will be in coastal counties. The farther away from the Gulf you are, the less moisture will be available this weekend. That means very little moisture for the D-FW area.

[Snowman67]

This excerpt from the NWS Hou/Galveston this morning:

SO LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY MORNING MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS ALSO WHEN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TRENDS IN
THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH MOST
OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THERE
MIGHT BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET FOR AREAS FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO CROCKETT FOR FRIDAY. THIS IS A VERY REMOTE POSSIBILITY
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS is definitely drier for much of Texas, with the moisture confined farther south. For Austin, it indicates more low-level dry air and less precip. It also predicts no freeze for Dallas south through Houston for the next 2 weeks.