Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #1461 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 1:55 pm

TT...Why are you so insistent that spring is here? A situation just like this has happened many times in December. It is early Feb, not spring!

It we have an Arctic outbreak later, will that be spring too? I just don't get it. You say I am obsessed with cold and snow. I could say you are obsessed with spring being here. The last time I looked at the calendar it said spring begins in late March. Also...The storm watch for the Kitsap Pen says WINTER storm, not SPRING storm!

R-Dub · #1462 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 1:57 pm

Snowiz, or anyone........Could this be like the March 2002 storm??
At my house we had almost 8" of heavy wet snow on the first day of Spring. I don't believe this was arctic air either, just cold air drawn down to the surface sort of thing.

How did that storm form and track, is it similar???

Much colder today, only 41 degrees at 11:00AM
2/5/05 LK Goodwin WA
10:59:16 AM CURRENT
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 41.5
Humidity (%) 78.3
Wind (mph) S 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.02
Pressure ("Hg) 30.17
Dew Point: 35.3 ºF

snow_wizzard · #1463 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:08 pm

R-Dub...This is similar. A low tracked to the south and drew in some cool and dry air from the E and NE. This one has a little less cold air to work with, but more moisture. Actually I just looked at my records for the day before that...high 46 low 36 with a SW wind. Very much like today. The next morning had E winds and snow. This thing could happen.

Oops...I was looking at the March 16th snow in that year. The one on the first day of spring, was a situation where some fairly cold air was alread in place. Temps of 42 - 40 the day before. Being that this is so much earlier in the season, it certainly helps our chances. The track of the low is going to be everything.

R-Dub · #1464 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:14 pm

March 16th we had 4" of the white stuff!

Boy that was a great March for snow!!

snow_wizzard · #1465 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:18 pm

I am sorry TT, and others. I try so hard to be nice on here, but all of this talk of spring when snow is in the forecast is driving me crazy! If the new GFS runs are right and we get into a cold and wet zonal flow, spring is not going to be the word that comes to most peoples minds. This link is for next Friday....heights below 546...no ridge.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_168m.htm

R-Dub · #1466 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:37 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:I am sorry TT, and others. I try so hard to be nice on here, but all of this talk of spring when snow is in the forecast is driving me crazy! If the new GFS runs are right and we get into a cold and wet zonal flow, spring is not going to be the word that comes to most peoples minds. This link is for next Friday....heights below 546...no ridge.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_168m.htm

No spring talk from me Snowwiz!! I think that bout of warm weather of the last 2 weeks are over for quite a while!!

AnthonyC · #1467 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:45 pm

R-Dub,

The March storm of 2002 was a little different than this latest event. First, there was an unusual pool of arctic air bottled in British Columbia...but the mountain range in British Columbia blocked it from making it south...as is usually the case. A strong, zonal flow developed on the WA/OR border, where a significant batch of moisture was pointed directly at Portland. Since the baroclinic band was further south, some of that arctic air trickled south, but made it no further than about North Seattle. From that event, Mukilteo saw very little snow for two reasons...1) the air temperature never made it below 33 F and thus the ground was too warm for accumulation, and 2) with a strong westerly flow, the Olympic mountains provided a decent rainshadow between Tacoma and Everett. But other places, particularly the northwest interior, saw major accumulation for March. Bellingham received about 10-15 inches and Mount Vernon also had a few inches. We saw maybe 0.5 inch and it melted fairly quickly. So that situation was alot different than this upcoming event.

Anthony

Guest · #1468 Postby **Guest** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:47 pm

No Anthony, not global warming... This winter has just been very unusual. There are some determining factors to the reasons we have been having these wierd patterns this year, but nobody really has seemed to quite understand everything. Hopefully these last few weeks of winter will straigten out and we will get back to a more normal last month of winter. Hopefully some colder air and snow in the mix as well.

As for tonight, it's really unpredictable right now despite what everyone is saying right now. Anything is still possible even though there isn't arctic air over the region right now. The low's strength can easily pull down enough cold air for snow. Like Snow Wizzard and R-Dub are talking about, pretty much all of those March 2002 storms had similar scenarios. The one storm on I think March 16th though had dropped 2 feet of snow on Alaska and then made its way down the coast and into us. That dropped pretty much rain and snow mix with temps in the mid 30's. Shortly after that though on March 21st we got 8-12 inches of snow. There really wasn't any arctic airmass with any of these storms even though the records for Bellingham for Temperatures may not have made it seem like there was no arctic airmass.

I am not all too familiar yet with all the different types of scenarios around here given I am 16, but with this situation tonight, how come the NW Interior isn't being mentioned at all for possible snow... All I am hearing is that the Kitsap and foothills of Everett have the best chance for white stuff.

W13 · #1469 Postby **W13** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:49 pm

40 F as of 11:40 AM. Much cooler than I expected it to be by now, what with the sun being out all morning and such. Clouds are starting to move in and block the sun, which means that temperatures won't climb all that much more through the rest of today.

I see great potential for tonight, it could be a widespread lowland snow storm, or it could be a snow storm for the Kitsap peninsula and the Cascade Foothills. It will all come down to where the low tracks tonight.

NWS for their Zone Forecast for my area (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/WAZ004.php?warncounty=WAC033&city=Kent ), says a low of 31 F tonight and snow. Tommorow a high of 40 F and snow, but I doubt that it will get that warm during the day tommorow.

All I can say at this point, is tonight will be very interesting.

R-Dub · #1470 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:49 pm

Cool, thats for the clarification Anthony, and Brennan!

NWS finally updated there forecasts.............

000 FPUS56 KSEW 051823 AAA ZFPSEW ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED UPDATED FOR WINTER STORM WATCH OLYMPICS AND HOOD CANAL/KITSAP AREA AND FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH SUNDAY ALL ZONES. SPOT TEMPERATURES AND PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOR TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY. WAZ006>008-052330-

SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA-TACOMA AREA-EVERETT AND VICINITY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BELLEVUE-EDMONDS-ISSAQUAH-PUYALLUP 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN ICE PELLETS OR SMALL HAIL. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ON HIGHER HILLS NORTH OF SEATTLE LATE. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ON HIGHER HILLS NORTH OF SEATTLE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. &&

WAZ010-052330- HOOD CANAL/KITSAP PENINSULA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BREMERTON-SHELTON 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED ...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING... .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN OR WET SNOW DEVELOPING. WET SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY NEAR HOOD CANAL LATE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY...RAIN OR SNOW. POSSIBLE HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES NEAR HOOD CANAL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT WIND. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY MORNING FOG. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. .TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. &&

WAZ003-004-052330- NORTHERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL CASCADE FOOTHILLS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NORTH BEND-ENUMCLAW-GOLD BAR 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS...SOME CONTAINING SMALL HAIL OR ICE PELLETS. HIGHS NEAR 40. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. WET SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE OVER 1000 FEET. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...RAIN. WET SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE OVER 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST. .SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LOWS NEAR 30. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

WAZ001-002-005-009-052330- SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-NORTHWEST INTERIOR- ADMIRALTY INLET AREA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF... MT VERNON-ANACORTES-OAK HARBOR-PORT TOWNSEND-FRIDAY HARBOR 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 45. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH ON HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH ON HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET. HIGHS 40 TO 45. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WAZ011-052330- SOUTHWEST INTERIOR- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CENTRALIA-LACEY-OLYMPIA-TOLEDO 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT WIND. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY MORNING FOG THEN PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY MORNING FOG. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. &&

WAZ013-014-052330- EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SEQUIM-JOYCE 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT WIND. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 50. LOWS AROUND 30. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WAZ015-016-052330- NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OCEAN SHORES-NEAH BAY-ABERDEEN 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY...BREEZY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS AROUND 30. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WAZ012-052330- OLYMPICS- 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED ...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 1500 FEET. .TONIGHT...BREEZY. RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 8 INCHES...HIGHEST ON SOUTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVEL 1500 FEET FALLING TO BELOW 1000 FEET. .SUNDAY...BREEZY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 8 INCHES...HIGHEST ON SOUTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVEL BELOW 1000 FEET. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL 2500 FEET. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL 3500 FEET. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL 6000 FEET. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 5000 FEET.

WAZ017-018-052330- WEST SLOPES NORTH CASCADES AND PASSES- WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES- 1010 AM PST SAT FEB 5 2005...UPDATED .TODAY...SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 1500 FEET. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WIND IN THE PASSES 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 1000 FEET. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WIND IN THE PASSES 15 TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. EAST WIND IN THE PASSES 15 TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL 2000 FEET. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WIND IN THE PASSES 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL 2500 FEET. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL 6000 FEET. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 4500 FEET. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S.

ALBRECHT WEATHER.GOV/SEATTL

W13 · #1471 Postby **W13** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:55 pm

*Brennan* wrote:I am not all too familiar yet with all the different types of scenarios around here given I am 16, but with this situation tonight, how come the NW Interior isn't being mentioned at all for possible snow... All I am hearing is that the Kitsap and foothills of Everett have the best chance for white stuff.

I'm not sure why it isn't being mentioned Brennan, but it does have potential. The Zone Forecast for Bellingham has a low of 35 F tonight with snow, and a high of 43 F tommorow with snow. Now, in the Detailed 7-Day Forecast, they mention an inch of accumulation tonight and another inch of accumulation are possbile on hills around the Bellingham area above 1000 Feet. I think tonight will just be a wait and see type of event, it won't be totally decided until something starts falling from the sky and everyone has figured out exactly where the low is going to track.

AnthonyC · #1472 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:55 pm

Brennan,

With these types of events, Bellingham (northwest interior) misses alot of the moisture rotating from the south. When a surface low tracks along the WA/OR border, moisture usually stays from about Everett south and west. But Bellingham has about the same chances of seeing snow as does Everett, Seattle and Olympia. Right now, the cascade foothills have the most potential...I'm a little skeptical about the Hood Canal. With the last arctic event in the beginning of January, NWS put out a similar forecast for the Hood Canal but nothing happened. Sometimes with a strong easterly wind, cold air can dam at the surface...basically the Olympic mountains block the easterly finds from moving toward the ocean, and thus they lower to the ground and the surface temperature cools. But you need a pretty intense surface low to draw those dry, easterly winds...and that's why it doesn't happen too often.

Anthony

R-Dub · #1473 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:01 pm

Anthony, another question.....On the start of the first tape I sent you, was about 4-5 days before the big arctic outbreak in Jan 1996. The footage at the biggining showed wet snow in many, but not all areas. Kitsap penninsula recieved almost 7" that day, we had around 2". It was a 500FT and higher, north, and hood canal area sort of event. Everett also had a good shot. I don't believe there was arctic air with that one, just colder air. Could be wrong though.

AnthonyC · #1474 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:09 pm

R-Dub,

If you are trying to compare this latest storm with any past storms, I would look at the Nov. 1996 event. There are similarities, but also many differences. The Nov. 1996 event had a cold pool of air bottled in British Columbia, but since it was so early in the season, it wasn't true "arctic" air. Also, the surface low approached from the southwest and rapidly intensified...making landfall on the WA/OR border. But the Nov. 1996 had ALL dynamics come together...even the timing of the onset of precip. There was tremendous clearing the night before the event, and a cool airmass over Western Washington. That allowed temperatures to cool from 29-33 F when the clouds and precip finally moved onshore. Once the heavier precip began, evaporative cooling took place and temperatures dropped to about 30 F and stayed there until the precip stopped. I definitely don't think that will happen with this event for many reasons...1) there's not much cold air in British Columbia...2) I don't think the surface low will intensify that much...3) the surface low is expected to make landfall in northwest Oregon and then head southeast...instead of a due east direction...which we would truly benefit from.

Honestly, I didn't pay too much attention to the brush with lowland snow in the middle of Jan. 1996. But, Everett received nearly 4 inches from a strong PSCZ...I remember Steve Pool saying the heavy snow warning had finally dropped for the Hood Canal and Everett Vicinity. But I don't remember seeing any surface low on satellite maps...but like I said before, I didn't pay too much attention. The week after, once the arctic air invaded, things were different. Actually, my dad was talking about the big snowstorm on Superbowl 1996...he said we had about 6-7 inches on the ground.

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #1475 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:27 pm

Anthony...I am becoming impressed with your knowledge. Very impressive analysis indeed. I was guessing to some extenet on March 2002. when I read your take, it brought back some memories.

As for tonight. The thing that could really work for us is the intensity of the precip. The east wind is going to be a huge question mark. If it is light the foothills could get slammed. If it is stronger Hood Canal could get slammed. At this point the details are very fuzzy. It could end up being a widespread event, but it's only 50/50 for now.

R-Dub · #1476 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:31 pm

Anthony better remember us when he is a big time meterologist, because I'm sure I'll still be asking him a million questions :lol:

Well I better take the dogs for a walk, they are driving me nuts today :lol:

snow_wizzard · #1477 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:37 pm

Looking at the latest satellite pic. I like what I see. The clouds off the coast show signs of containing very high amounts of moisture. They have that feathery or leafy look to them that indicates heavy precip is on the way. The GFS shows the low stalling for a while off the north coast which would favor Bellingham getting snow. The ETA shows it will touch the coast at Hoquiam, which would bode very well for King County. In that position the most intense moisture would hook around the south end of the Olymipics. That is a situation that highly favors heavy amounts in King county. If the low tracks properly for Bellingham, they could see heavy snowfall due to some Arctic leakage from BC.

You would have to very brave or foolish to say anything is certain on this one!

snow_wizzard · #1478 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:50 pm

I found the one I was looking for...February 7, 2002. Absolutley no mention of snow in the forecast, no Acrtic air anywhere close, 850mb temps -2C. A low tracked over SW WA on that night and brought wet snow to the foothills at 400 feet and above. I actually remember that Ravensdale was on the news that night for snow. That was a very localized event, but it goes to show with good precip intensity and a low tracking to the south, good things can happen. That was a very rare case where even I missed any possible snow potential. That is VERY RARE!

Who would have thought 850mb temps of -2 and no continental air could have brought snow? The east wind was just enough to cause wet bulb effect cooling.

W13 · #1479 Postby **W13** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:57 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:I found the one I was looking for...February 7, 2002. Absolutley no mention of snow in the forecast, no Acrtic air anywhere close, 850mb temps -2C. A low tracked over SW WA on that night and brought wet snow to the foothills at 400 feet and above. I actually remember that Ravensdale was on the news that night for snow. That was a very localized event, but it goes to show with good precip intensity and a low tracking to the south, good things can happen. That was a very rare case where even I missed any possible snow potential. That is VERY RARE!

Who would have thought 850mb temps of -2 and no continental air could have brought snow? The east wind was just enough to cause wet bulb effect cooling.

I remember that event perfectly! I was so sad that the snow had missed us, by only a few miles (Ravensdale is only a few miles east of Kent). I think I remember them getting somewhere between 3-4" of snow from that event, and all we got was some wet pavement. :lol:

skipnfamily · #1480 Postby **skipnfamily** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:57 pm

Hey guys..All is sounding good.Nice to see you over here Brennan..Snow would be nice but I have learned on here not to get my hopes up at all.Currently 42 and nice...

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