Texas Winter 2023-2024

[txtwister78]

GFS Ensemble run continues to trend colder and is nowhere near tonight's operational.

[Stratton23]

00z GEPS is also much colder as well

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What I’ve been saying in a different way….

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/174 ... 429626%2F4

[Harp.1]

Junk run of the GFS? It sure seems that way. Consistency please!!!

[Gotwood]

CMC has been confusing the last few runs, it waits longer than other models to bring the cold down.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Junk run of the GFS? It sure seems that way. Consistency please!!!

Its ensembles disagree with the operational, big time. It’s much much colder.

[Harp.1]

Junk run of the GFS? It sure seems that way. Consistency please!!!

Its ensembles disagree with the operational, big time. It’s much much colder.

Oh, I know. Just venting! lol!!

[gpsnowman]

It is a very big deal in U.S. weather forecasting when a 500MB cold vortex descends into the Great Lakes. Classic widespread freezes and attendant winter storms all show this set-up, as you can see in clarity on the ECMWF and GGEM model panels at 240 hours. The temperature outlines are likely underdone; usually bitter cold crushes warmer values ahead of it, provided that the upper low is not opposal. The next storm in the series is very important. If the track forecast is correct (off of Matamoros Mexico to below Boothville LA, then on to Savannah GA and north-northeast, two critical problems will result. One would be an ice storm of note from Texas through the Deep South (sith mostly snow along/above the Interstate 20 corridor). The other would be a critical drain of the Arctic air mass with locally strong winds in the cold sector of the storm. This is only conjecture, of course, based on synoptic climatology. But if that gyre does relocate to Michigan, could on widespread and high heating usage in much of the lower 48 states.

From Larry Cosgrove's medium range page dated Jan 6. I would post the longer range text but for some reason some of the text is not visible on the right side of my screen.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro so far remains the same. It's incredible the agreement between the models of the PVa displacement and bitter cold air mass. That part is undeniable.

[Stratton23]

I like how the trough is able to dig more south on this euro run, very cold, but also not far off from showing some wintry mischeif

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Cosgrove’s post:

The blocking ridges, the powerful storms, and lots of cold air.

The disturbance moving out of the "Four Corners" may be small, and probably not a significant winter storm threat outside of Appalachia and the Northeast (marginal snow potential at best along the immediate Atlantic coast). But this system starts a sequence of ever-stronger disturbances that will yank bitter cold over the Yukon and Northwest Territories/Nunavut AR into the USA. First across the West, then reaching the Eastern Seaboard.

My main concern right now is the low pressure that moves out of West Texas on January 9. The storm, now between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands, has a deep tropical connection and abundant energy and cold air to work with. The distribution of energy about its 500MB core seems circular, which will enable formation of significant snows from the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes next week. Central pressures will be very low against an incoming anticyclone (983MB), so besides the winter precipitation aspects there will be strong gradient winds. Most model guidance has been consistent with excessive rainfall and severe weather production through the Deep South into the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states. The cyclone will pull down an impressive cold advection swipe through Texas into the Mississippi River watershed by January 11.

Yet another piece of energy arrives by January 14 in the lower High Plains. If this feature redevelops in the western Gulf of Mexico, Arctic values will stream rapidly southward with more potential for frozen types into Texas and Arkansas. It is this last impulse in the series that should take the cAk regime into the Eastern Seaboard. With a cold closed low in Ontario and Quebec (remember the blocking in Baffin Island and Greenland), the chill east of the Rocky Mountains should last past January 24.

[Cpv17]

Just watched channel 8 news it’s almost annoying how they try to go out of their way to downplay the cold. No mention it could be worse just a this is winter nothing crazy.

Haha same here in Houston. It’s definitely annoying.

[JDawg512]

I don't mind the cold as long as it stays dry. Last winter was brutal during the ice storm. 2021 the power stayed on here at the Rain Cave, last winter's ice storm we lost power for close to 4 days. I'm over winter precipitation and would rather not want to deal with it again.

[wxman57]

Suddenly, I love the Canadian's forecast for 18Z the 16th. Near 80F in SE TX. However, the Euro has temps near 30 at the same time. GFS is in between with mid 40s. It's clear that some or all of the models are not handling the pattern well after this week. Here's a comparison of the three models. Note that only the Canadian model takes into account my work on the Red River wall yesterday. Neither the GFS nor the Canadian has any snow south of the Red River through the 16th. It's just a dry cold.

[wxman57]

Well, here's the problem. Models are having a very hard time with the 500mb flow pattern by the end of the 10-day run. Hard to trust any of them this far out.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The forecasts for up here are comical. High in the upper 30s on Friday and Saturday and then immediately back to the upper 40s/low 50s.

[bubba hotep]

Dry cold. The worst. Bah Humbug.

[Brent]

There's a knowledgeable dude here who thinks the worst cold will stay NE

Fine with me no interest in another 2021 at all. 11 days near below freezing is not it

[Gotwood]

There's a knowledgeable dude here who thinks the worst cold will stay NE

Fine with me no interest in another 2021

I think it all depends on precipitation. The GFS has two LP that dig into Mexico. Guess it’s just a matter of when the arctic air arrives.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON has jumped north for the upcoming system, waiting for it to show Friday's system.