Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

It does feel like spring. Not cold and dark like December/early January.

It is sunny here right now and 46 degrees with no wind. Puffy clouds, green grass, trees budding. Feels really good. We went for a walk by the house we are building and it was just beautiful. Very pleasant. My wife kept commenting on how spring-like it is now.

Feels very different than the cold, dark, windy days of early January when we had lows in the upper teens here and everything was dormant.

3 hours of wet snow with temperatures above freezing does not make it winter.

[AnthonyC]

The February 7, 2002 event brought high winds to Eugene and all of central Oregon. That was a very intense surface low...actually, NO forecast models indicated the low bombing off the Oregon coast. Most models indicated a 1002 mb surface low would track into southern Oregon...in reality, it was a 977 mb surface low that tracked into central Oregon. The track was a little too far south to bring sufficient wrap-around moisture to Western Washington...plus, like snow_wizzard stated, there was NO colder airmass over Western Washington or in Canada. It was evaporative cooling that brought snow to the foothills. I think this latest event has much more potential than the February 7, 2002 storm. Just goes to show how poor forecasting models can be.

Anthony

[W13]

Sunday Night/Monday Morning AVN:



Looks like great wrap-around moisture to me.

[andrewr]

Since there was earthquake talk on here recently, thought I would mention that a 2.5 hit in Federal Way yesterday at 11:30am. Didn't see the news mention it because it probably couldn't have been felt, but interesting nonetheless.

[W13]

Since there was earthquake talk on here recently, thought I would mention that a 2.5 hit in Federal Way yesterday at 11:30am. Didn't see the news mention it because it probably couldn't have been felt, but interesting nonetheless.

Yes, I saw that too. Weather Underground had it under the Earthquake section.

[W13]

Donsutherland's Pattern Discussion for February 6-19:

• February 6-9 should see temperatures remain below normal across the Pacific Northwest. Seattle could see the temperature slip below freezing on one or more days during this timeframe. Some snow showers are possible on February 6. By midweek, a slow moderating trend should get underway as the trough heads eastward. After mid-month, temperatures likely will be running above normal in the Pacific Northwest.

His entire Pattern Discussion can be found at the following topic link:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=57243

[W13]

36-Hour NGM:



As you can see, it shows even heavier precip amounts than the AVN in the wrap-around for Sunday Night/Monday Morning.

[TT-SEA]

That map shows precipitation through Sunday afternoon... not Monday morning.

00Z Monday is 4 p.m. on Sunday afternoon in our time zone.

[snow_wizzard]

You are correct about the time TT...

That NGM is awsome!

[W13]

That map shows precipitation through Sunday afternoon... not Monday morning.

00Z Monday is 4 p.m. on Sunday afternoon in our time zone.

Oh yeah, I forgot about the time zone difference.

It is still awesome precip-wise.

[AnthonyC]

Wait, wait, wait...I think some are jumping the gun a little too quick. This is NO slam-dunk...I repeat...this is NO slam-dunk!! I wouldn't even say a 50/50 shot. As of now, snow levels remain around 1000 feet...that's not surface. That would no bring snow to the greater Seattle area. I'm not saying we won't see snow...but it WILL be localized and won't amount to much.

Currently it's 43 F with mostly cloudy conditions. That's a cool airmass...not cold...and DEFINITELY not arctic cold. Looking at satellite images, that system isn't looking too impressive...granted that may change if it undergoes cyclogenesis...but as of now, I'm not impressed. And, there's not much arctic air in Canada to drag down.

So once again, let's chill. I think people are getting their hopes up too high...if nothing happens, everyone will be pissed. Here's my forecast as of now:

Greater Seattle Area (Everett-Tacoma): Rain...possibly mixed with wet snow Sunday morning. No accumulation...afternoon highs around 40F.

Bellingham (Northwest Interior): Rain...possibly mixed with or changing to wet snow. Minor accumulation if anything. Afternoon highs in the upper 30s, lower 40s.

Southwest Interior (Olympia south): Rain. Sunday afternoon highs in the mid 40s.

Hood Canal/Kitsap Peninsula: Rain...possibly changing to wet snow. Minor accumulations of 1-3 inches...if anything. Afternoon highs in the upper 30s.

Cascade Foothills (Above 700 ft.): Rain changing to wet snow. Accumulations of 1-2 inches. Afternoon highs in the mid, upper 30s.

Just being realistic at this point.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

38.7 degrees here and partly cloudy. We reached a high of 41 today, and have been slowly dropping all day. I was down at the park by me on puget sound, and it was a chilly wind blowing.
I'll post a couple pics in a few.

I think if I read NWS correctly, the storm system is supposed to intensify as it nears us.

[TT-SEA]

Looks good Anthony.

Remember... we now have southerly flow starting up so its not going to get too cold tonight.

[R-Dub]

These are my quick pics that I took while walking my dogs today at Kayak Point Park on Puget Sound.

An exellent veiw of the PSCZ!!!
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Another shot, the land you see across the sound is Camino Island looking south. Towards the left/middle of the shot, (inbetween the two land masses) in the far distance is out towards Everett.......
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

This shot is looking north towards North Camino Island and Stanwood.....
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Still holding steady with a temp of 38.9 degrees

[TT-SEA]

NWS discussion...

Looking less likely for any snow at all in the Seattle area or even Bellingham. Strong southerly flow... the usual culprit that gives us rain and not snow.


BUT UW MM5 SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW STRONG SLY FLOW AT 850 AND 925 MB AND A GENERAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL NELY FLOW SEEN IN THE NAM. HENCE THE MM5 SOLUTIONS ARE MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND THEY SHOW NO LOW LAND SNOW.

[R-Dub]

WOW.......Talk about a indepth NWS Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 238 PM PST FRI FEB 4 2005

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE LOW LANDS AND SNOW ABOVE AROUND 1000 FEET. THE AIRMASS IS COOL ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE WET SNOW NEAR HOOD CANAL AND OVER THE HILLS AROUND PUGET SOUND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL GIVE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF SEATTLE. AFTER DRY WEATHER THURSDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. &&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A DEVELOPING LOW ABOUT 400 NM W OF CAPE FLATTERY AS IT DEVELOPS AND DRIVES ESE TONIGHT THEN SE ALONG THE WA COASTLINE ON SUN. THE LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK POORLY ORGANIZED AND SEEMS TO BE LOCATED NEAR 50N/135W...A LOCATION WITH NO NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WHAT MODELS SHOW AS AN ENERGETIC LOW IS MOVING INTO A DIGGING UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS DROPPING SE TOWARD WRN WA LATE SUN. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE OLYMPICS AND SNOW LEVELS IN THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE KITSAP PENINSULA AND AROUND HOOD CANAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MON AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND HEADS TOWARD SRN OREGON OR NRN CA. THE COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAK SPLITTING SYSTEMS WITH MOST ENERGY HEADED TO OUR SOUTH RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING AND MAINLY OCCASIONAL MID/HI CLOUDS AT TIMES. SPLITTING SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA GIVE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH. .TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 18Z NAM -- FORMERLY KNOWN AS ETA -- AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR PREDECESSORS. THEY DEVELOP THE OFFSHORE LOW INTO A SUB 1000MB CENTER JUST OFF TATOOSH ISLAND 15Z SUN THEN DROP A MATURING CENTER DOWN THE COASTLINE INTO NW OREGON 00Z-06Z TOMORROW EVENING. I NO LONGER HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DEEPER THAN THE MODELS AS I CAN NO LONGER SEE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...AND ALSO THERE ARE NO NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH 1.5 INCH 21 HR TOTALS ALONG THE S AND SE SLOPES. QPF IS ALSO HIGH AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COOL SO THAT THE AREA NEAR HOOD CANAL AND THE KITSAP PENINSULA COULD ALSO SEE A BOUT OF HEAVY-WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM RESOLUTION PROBLEMS IN CATCHING DETAILS AROUND THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. BUT UW MM5 SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW STRONG SLY FLOW AT 850 AND 925 MB AND A GENERAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL NELY FLOW SEEN IN THE NAM. HENCE THE MM5 SOLUTIONS ARE MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND THEY SHOW NO LOW LAND SNOW. BASED ON TRENDS...WILL ISSUE A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE OLYMPICS LATE TONIGHT AND SUN FOR 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT WILL KEEP A WATCH GOING FOR A MERE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE KITSAP PENINSULA/HOOD CANAL AREA. THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF HOOD CANAL WILL SEE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING HEAVY LOW LAND SNOW. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE N.

.MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...COOL WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL MID/HI CLOUDS AND PATCHY AM FOG. NOT BAD FOR FEB.

.TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLITTING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SRN OREGON AND NRN CA. IT LOOKS DRY OVER WA...BUT THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS -- SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS -- THAT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SRN PORTIONS OF WA. IN ORDER TO COORDINATE WELL WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH...BROUGHT IN CLOUDS AND GAVE CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...ANOTHER BREAK WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND SOME DAYTIME SUN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE DEG ABOVE NORMAL THU AFTN.

.FRI THROUGH SAT...A COUPLE OF SPLITTING SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA GIVING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. DETAILS VARY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALBRECHT &&

[W13]

NWS discussion...

Looking less likely for any snow at all in the Seattle area or even Bellingham. Strong southerly flow... the usual culprit that gives us rain and not snow.


BUT UW MM5 SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW STRONG SLY FLOW AT 850 AND 925 MB AND A GENERAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL NELY FLOW SEEN IN THE NAM. HENCE THE MM5 SOLUTIONS ARE MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND THEY SHOW NO LOW LAND SNOW.

Still looking good in my opinion, for area at over over 500-700 Feet and the Hood Canal area. You also have to factor in the possibility of a wet bulb cooling effect coming into play. By 9-10 PM we should have a good handle on how strong the low will be and the general track of it.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I would not bet on that. This entire thing hinges on precipitation intensity and at least some easterly wind. How ironic that you, are one of the most likely areas to see snow tonight! I think you are always too quick to jump on the disappointing discussions and model runs. I guess it balances me out to some extent.

I find it odd that the NWS thinks the southerly flow aloft thing is new. Every run has been showing that. My bet is that some places see snow tonight (at least down to 300 - 400 feet).

By the way...the NGM is showing a strong push of contiental air flooding in behind the low. That solution is an outlier, but I thought it should be mentioned.

[W13]

41 F as of 2:56 PM, after a high of 42 F. Dew Point is at 31 F with Relative Humidity at 67% and falling slightly.

Anything is possible tonight. We will just have to wait and see how this plays out.

[AnthonyC]

Basically the NWS meteorologists are saying "WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN!!!"

Pretty sad...no satellite imagery and no surface observations. That will make this thing even tougher. In any event, this will be marginal...even for the Hood Canal and the Cascade foothills. But there's still potential.

As always, it all depends on the intensity and track of the surface low. Looking at satellite observations, the storm doesn't look impressive. It's still too early. Hopefully they'll have a better handle on the event come later this evening.

Anthony