Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

Doesn't look like a great setup for cross-Polar flow on the 384hr GFS. Note that there is some flow across the Pole but it's shunted west into the Gulf of Alaska. Of course, the GFS probably doesn't have a great handle on the weather 3-4 days from now much less 15-16 days out.

Thanks for the input! No doubt it will NOT happen from the GFS. I've heard that term used a lot over the years but no one ever really clarified what it would look like (cross polar flow/mcfarland).

[vbhoutex]

Another thing to look at, but not as important as the models making sense is the snow cover to our North. It is darn near non-existent and when it is like that we usually have quickly moderating cold as it comes our way. In conjunction with what wxman57 has pointed out I don't see any way we will get any unusually cold temps soon, at least not from the system due in here over the weekend.
Watching this "winter" so far, I have to say La Nina is winning out even if it isn't typical La Nina the results seem to be the same-warmer and drier. And yes I say that even with the rains we have had.

[wxman57]

Yes, it's hard to get bitter cold in Texas lacking cold air in Canada and snowcover to our north. Of course, I hate cold weather so I'm not disappointed.

[cycloneye]

Another thing to look at, but not as important as the models making sense is the snow cover to our North. It is darn near non-existent and when it is like that we usually have quickly moderating cold as it comes our way. In conjunction with what wxman57 has pointed out I don't see any way we will get any unusually cold temps soon, at least not from the system due in here over the weekend.
Watching this "winter" so far, I have to say La Nina is winning out even if it isn't typical La Nina the results seem to be the same-warmer and drier. And yes I say that even with the rains we have had.

She is continuing to get stronger at the present time (Moderate status) and you know that by seeing how the SOI index continues to go very positive.

[Rgv20]

Okay I'm posting this forecast by the 12zGFS just for pure entertainment....Look at that 1067mb High!!! With above normal 500mb heights over western Alaska.....

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro continues to support an Eastern trough but one more east than what it showed yesterday and more in line with the 0z Euro and the 0z and 12z GFS. Looks like we're narrowing solutions down and the New Year's cold front will be nothing to write home about.

[wxman57]

The 12z Euro continues to support an Eastern trough but one more east than what it showed yesterday and more in line with the 0z Euro and the 0z and 12z GFS. Looks like we're narrowing solutions down and the New Year's cold front will be nothing to write home about.

I've also been monitoring the Euro's predicted 850mb and surface temps for next week. Here's a breakdown of the last 3 runs:

12Z Tue: 850mb temp -13C over Houston next Tue/Wed. Min surface temp next Wed of 29-30F
00Z Wed: 850mb temp +1C to +2C over Houston next Tue/Wed. Min surface temp next wed of 30F
12Z Wed: 850mb temp +6C over Houston next Tue/Wed with min surface temp 35F

Trend is definitely warmer. Main reason I see is the general lack of cold air in the source region and a U.S. snowfall map that shows little or no coverage from Texas to the Canadian border.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... scover.gif

What does it all mean as far as next week across Texas? Just a moderate/seasonal cold front moving through Sunday afternoon bringing a possible light freeze to near the coast. No post frontal precip and little, if any, pre-frontal rain.

[hriverajr]

The amplitude of the trough over the eastern U.S. that was being shown over the last few days always looked unrealistically deep. Whenever I see a trough centered just to the east of Texas... it never excites me in regards to any truly cold air here.

[hriverajr]

Okay I'm posting this forecast by the 12zGFS just for pure entertainment....Look at that 1067mb High!!! With above normal 500mb heights over western Alaska.....

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... TNA360.gif

Well at least GFS is not showing pure zonal flow anymore..hehe

[aggiecutter]

12z Ensembles say AO is about to crash and burn:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/photo_44/6590069689/

[wxman57]

12Z Euro ensemble is going just slightly negative with the AO by the 7th then positive.

[Ntxw]

I say we sacrifice wxman57 to the atmosphere (and his heat radiation) and get a true sudden stratospheric warming going, split the arctic vortex and we're in game!

[hriverajr]

I say we sacrifice wxman57 to the atmosphere (and his heat radiation) and get a true sudden stratospheric warming going, split the arctic vortex and we're in game!

LOL I agree... gosh we have enough warmth the rest of the year. I think he has some sort of weather manipulation technology haha

[iorange55]

I say we sacrifice wxman57 to the atmosphere (and his heat radiation) and get a true sudden stratospheric warming going, split the arctic vortex and we're in game!

Lol, yeah he seems to enjoy bringing our hopes down so much. Kidding, of course. I guess he keeps it "real" in here. Though, he does seem more willing to share news about warm weather...

[DonWrk]

No kidding, I can only hope some true bitter cold comes howling in from the North straight towards wxman!

[wxman57]

At the office, I'm known as a "warm-mongerer", a term we coined. With so many "cold-mongerers" in the office, someone had to speak up for the joys of hot weather.

Canada can keep its cold air where it belongs - in Canada! Meanwhile, my dreams involve 90+ deg temps in February like back in 1986. Those were the days...

[Ntxw]

At the office, I'm known as a "warm-mongerer", a term we coined. With so many "cold-mongerers" in the office, someone had to speak up for the joys of hot weather.

Canada can keep its cold air where it belongs - in Canada! Meanwhile, my dreams involve 90+ deg temps in February like back in 1986. Those were the days...

I think those 90+ days in winter will be harder to come by in cold PDO's . The 90s were friendly for winter warmth too! Long term wise do you think we enter a third nina next winter? Go neutral? Or weak Nino?

75-76, 76-77 seems to be some analog years people use for the period we are in, and of course we all know about the infamous cold PDO nino of 77-78, so I was wondering if it matched.

[MGC]

Us southerns live down here because of the warmth. If some of you prefer the cold than why not move way up north where it is cold? Keep that +NAO the rest of winter I say.....MGC

[hriverajr]

At the office, I'm known as a "warm-mongerer", a term we coined. With so many "cold-mongerers" in the office, someone had to speak up for the joys of hot weather.

Canada can keep its cold air where it belongs - in Canada! Meanwhile, my dreams involve 90+ deg temps in February like back in 1986. Those were the days...

You should have been in Del Rio this summer... It got so hot i had a tube fail while riding my bike one late afternoon. It was miserable, of course not even counting the "smoke" days. Lost 12 lbs of fluid on one 50 mile ride even hydrating.

[Portastorm]

12Z Euro ensemble is going just slightly negative with the AO by the 7th then positive.

I'll attempt to offset the work of the "warm mongerer" by writing that the GFS ensembles have the AO on a downward trend (albeit still in the positive category) from 10 days out. Maybe the trend is an encouraging sign for us cold mongerers!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml