Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

DFW proper may be a close call to see a freeze without a true Arctic high, but outlying areas can see upper 20s with good radiational cooling even with Pacific air. Though in this pattern we may not have too many clear nights.

[DougNTexas]

That is certainly true Ralph. Often the low in Tyler or Longview might be 32 yet it might be 27 at my place out here in the Countryside 30 miles away from the city. I am about equal distance from both Tyler and Longview. They are both about 30 miles away. I am half a mile from Carlisle High School.

[srainhoutx]

OK. Who hijacked the 18Z GFS?

[wxman57]

Well, the good thing is, it doesn't take really cold air to see frozen/freezing precipitation.

That's true, as is evident by last week's blizzard. But the models aren't indicating any air that cold down here over the coming weeks.

[Brent]

I'd take this look any day and it's been quite consistent:

[wxman57]

OK. Who hijacked the 18Z GFS?

I see less moisture over the next 3-4 days and temps a little warmer. Fine with me!

[wxman57]

I'd take this look any day and it's been quite consistent:

http://oi65.tinypic.com/24xnzvn.jpg

That's definitely not a warm pattern, but no extreme cold, either. Strong flow off the Pacific into western Canada means temps well above normal in the source region for any cold fronts.

[Ralph's Weather]

That is certainly true Ralph. Often the low in Tyler or Longview might be 32 yet it might be 27 at my place out here in the Countryside 30 miles away from the city. I am about equal distance from both Tyler and Longview. They are both about 30 miles away. I am half a mile from Carlisle High School.

I am in Hideaway and I am often 5+ degrees cooler on clear nights than Tyler.

[Ntxw]

The pattern for delivery is decent to good. With split patterns though what might be missing is the really cold air, but that's not unusual. Eventually as climo shifts it will likely deliver. The really cold stuff (until post Jan 10) will be under the freak Kara Sea ridge. Once that hooks over with the -EPO then we roll the Siberian express. By no means is it warm now, cold in fact. Just the lack of freezes (if they dont come) from clouds via STJ

Ntxw - if you have access, go check out the end of the Euro Control Run

Drops the hammer down towards the end of week 2, some 35-45 F below normal crashing down into the southern plains. Still in fantasy land but it fits the narrative of this evolving pattern....

I saw it. It's quite the pattern.

I think the trend overall is as winter continues it will progressively get colder. 1 because that's natural as the winter matures, 2 the teleconnections become favorable and takes time for it to manifest into the actual weather we experience, and 3, again the analogs I posted on page 1 is a progression from Dec to Jan to Feb of strong to super El Nino's is very similar. Key is blocking and EPO. Sustain the blocking and you will drive in 1965-1966 type pattern, more transient blocks you get a 1982-1983 like season. February is the period to watch out for peak of winter (then again it has been for many years now?). But January will likely get progressively colder.

The main theme to take out for now is that the low heights have moved away from inland Alaska into the Aleutians.

[wxman57]

If you animate the 850mb temps/streamlines on that EC control run near 360hrs you can see it shunting the colder air off to the east in the last few frames.

[Texas Snowman]

And don't forget that at 360 hours, there's a...

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!

[Brent]

wxman57 isn't giving up his control yet I see...

[Ntxw]

If you animate the 850mb temps/streamlines on that EC control run near 360hrs you can see it shunting the colder air off to the east in the last few frames.

We believe 360hrs of the EC control .

Just the pattern trend wxman57! You're right now, there are not signs within reasonable time of any Arctic outbreaks, and frankly I don't think that is the theme of this winter. It's going to be storm threats and marginal thread the needle events. Keep trying and one will hit!

[Tireman4]

And don't forget that at 360 hours, there's a...

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!

Finally some normalty..

[Brent]

If you animate the 850mb temps/streamlines on that EC control run near 360hrs you can see it shunting the colder air off to the east in the last few frames.

We believe 360hrs of the EC control .

Just the pattern trend wxman57! You're right now, there are not signs within reasonable time of any Arctic outbreaks, and frankly I don't think that is the theme of this winter. It's going to be storm threats and marginal thread the needle events. Keep trying and one will hit!

I've said it before, I'll say it again... arctic outbreaks are kind of overrated anyway. They rarely produce meaningful snow. Give me a 30-32 and snowstorm anytime.

[Snowman67]

King Euro shows a 1051HP moving down the plains ushering in cold wx into Texas? No freezing wx seems highly unlikely. [/quote]

Can you send a link where I can see that? Thanks.[/quote]


There are several great sites. I subscribe to weatherbell.com and often check tropicaltidbits as well. Pivotal is very nice too.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=sc&dpdt=[/quote]

Thanks!

[Ralph's Weather]

Another freeze here at 31 degrees. Gotta love clear, calm winter nights.

[DonWrk]

Another one here too at 30 degrees. I see a few more freezes in the near future also.

[Ralph's Weather]

Even have some light freezing fog coating the car.

[orangeblood]

It appears a Major southern plains to east coast Winter Storm is on the table for the Jan. 10-12th time frame....Euro has been honing in for awhile, GFS is late to the party as usual. Potential Arctic outbreak in its wake....