Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Texas Snow]

I see 26 at IAH at 12z on the 24th. Euro ensembles are upper 20s, so in pretty good agreement with the operational run at 12z.

I wouldn’t even call that an Artic front by our standards. That’s more like a Canadian front that we usually get 3-4 times every winter.

Current models are likely not correct. Wait until next Tue or Wed for a better idea what will happen.

LOL Now we have the Heat Mizer trying to keep hope alive for some of y'all (Cpv17 isn't really in that group even though in the reply). It's gonna be chilly at Christmas. Anything else is bonus but wont be known for a while. Not sure how many times it needs to be said but never fear, Heat Mizer is here to cheer you up.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro Control showing the potential of this pattern, reload after reload with Shortwaves sneaking thru the Pacific Northwest every few days!!

Lower heights much more centered across the Central US

[wxman57]

I wouldn’t even call that an Artic front by our standards. That’s more like a Canadian front that we usually get 3-4 times every winter.

Current models are likely not correct. Wait until next Tue or Wed for a better idea what will happen.

LOL Now we have the Heat Mizer trying to keep hope alive for some of y'all (Cpv17 isn't really in that group even though in the reply). It's gonna be chilly at Christmas. Anything else is bonus but wont be known for a while. Not sure how many times it needs to be said

I'm just pointing out that we're talking about an event 7-9 days out. Sure, it could be really cold around Christmas, but I do not see the "right" flow pattern to bring extreme cold to Texas. 500 mb flow has air coming off the Pacific into western Canada then south. That's not what you want to see for extreme cold. Flow should be from the Pole to western Canada. I'm still thinking a light freeze for the Gulf Coast is most likely, but there is always the chance of colder weather.

Despite Portastorm's efforts, I was able to get a large supply of bricks up north to reinforce my wall. I'll have to let a little cold air through next week to keep pressure on the wall down, but the wall should hold.

[orangeblood]

Current models are likely not correct. Wait until next Tue or Wed for a better idea what will happen.

LOL Now we have the Heat Mizer trying to keep hope alive for some of y'all (Cpv17 isn't really in that group even though in the reply). It's gonna be chilly at Christmas. Anything else is bonus but wont be known for a while. Not sure how many times it needs to be said

I'm just pointing out that we're talking about an event 7-9 days out. Sure, it could be really cold around Christmas, but I do not see the "right" flow pattern to bring extreme cold to Texas. 500 mb flow has air coming off the Pacific into western Canada then south. That's not what you want to see for extreme cold. Flow should be from the Pole to western Canada. I'm still thinking a light freeze for the Gulf Coast is most likely, but there is always the chance of colder weather.

Despite Portastorm's efforts, I was able to get a large supply of bricks up north to reinforce my wall. I'll have to let a little cold air through next week to keep pressure on the wall down, but the wall should hold.

Flow pattern is changing in less than 72 hrs



Really gets cranking next week draining straight from Siberia

[mcallum177]

What did the models look like 7 to 9 days before Feb 2021?

[Iceresistance]

What did the models look like 7 to 9 days before Feb 2021?

They began to also lose it as well, before correcting back to what it was before when it was first picked up.

[mcallum177]

I don't want to do Feb 21 again, the whole thing of 15 minutes of power and 4 hours no power was exhausting.

It would be nice to just have regular old snow maybe a record amount of snow in the lower 20's.

What did the models look like 7 to 9 days before Feb 2021?

They began to also lose it as well, before correcting back to what it was before when it was first picked up.

[txtwister78]

Bastardi picking up on the model bias/struggle with handling of the arctic air down into Texas next week.


 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1603141530960666625

[Iceresistance]

Not to derail this, but there is a tornado on the ground in New Orleans

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has 1069 mb in NW Canada, in under 7 days!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not to derail this, but there is a tornado on the ground in New Orleans

Looks like it split between Gentilly and the lower 9th Ward.

[Iceresistance]

Not to derail this, but there is a tornado on the ground in New Orleans

Looks like it split between Gentilly and the lower 9th Ward.

 https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1603154594900889600

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has trended colder, and it could also create a reinforcement shot as well!

[HockeyTx82]

We need a Texas Winter 2022-2023 OP Run thread and have Ens only in this one or something along those lines..... haha

[Iceresistance]

We need a Texas Winter 2022-2023 OP Run thread and have Ens only in this one or something along those lines..... haha

I'd rather not get things too complicated.

[Iceresistance]

Also, the +PNA ridge is trending weaker. It's much weaker on the 18z GFS before strengthening it in the fantasy range.

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I notice looking at the 500mb pattern on the 18z gfs is the various disturbances that show up off of baja starting around a week out as the cold airmass starts to bleed south. Ultimately, they get shoved southward due to the building high in the SWUS, leading to dry cold here in TX. But if we’re really thinking that the +pna is being exaggerated by the models, I don’t think we’re as locked into a dry cold wave as it would seem. Not hinting at what I think will happen so much as trying to acknowledge the uncertainties that still clearly exist.

This flow pattern isn’t going be reliably modeled until the end of the weekend at earliest, especially on the ops, so I wouldn’t get hung up on anything at this point. Honestly, it says more to me about this event’s potential that the gfs is pushing most of the state below freezing for several days despite the core of the system shooting ese into the mid Atlantic states

[ThunderSleetDreams]

One thing I notice looking at the 500mb pattern on the 18z gfs is the various disturbances that show up off of baja starting around a week out as the cold airmass starts to bleed south. Ultimately, they get shoved southward due to the building high in the SWUS, leading to dry cold here in TX. But if we’re really thinking that the +pna is being exaggerated by the models, I don’t think we’re as locked into a dry cold wave as it would seem. Not hinting at what I think will happen so much as trying to acknowledge the uncertainties that still clearly exist.

This flow pattern isn’t going be reliably modeled until the end of the weekend at earliest, especially on the ops, so I wouldn’t get hung up on anything at this point. Honestly, it says more to me about this event’s potential that the gfs is pushing most of the state below freezing for several days despite the core of the system shooting ese into the mid Atlantic states

I had similar thoughts. I'm not sure what Op runs are seeing PNA wise. Nothing is modeled to move too much off neutral one way or the other in the ensemble members.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Dec 1983 folks.

[Cpv17]

Also, the +PNA ridge is trending weaker. It's much weaker on the 18z GFS before strengthening it in the fantasy range.

I’m pretty sure the PNA is forecast to stay around neutral for the next several days so I think this is just the models bias to be overly progressive at this range and fail to dig the trough further S.