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wxman57 wrote:At the office, I'm known as a "warm-mongerer", a term we coined. With so many "cold-mongerers" in the office, someone had to speak up for the joys of hot weather.
Canada can keep its cold air where it belongs - in Canada! Meanwhile, my dreams involve 90+ deg temps in February like back in 1986. Those were the days...
Ntxw wrote:
I think those 90+ days in winter will be harder to come by in cold PDO's. The 90s were friendly for winter warmth too! Long term wise do you think we enter a third nina next winter? Go neutral? Or weak Nino?
75-76, 76-77 seems to be some analog years people use for the period we are in, and of course we all know about the infamous cold PDO nino of 77-78, so I was wondering if it matched.
The winter of 1975-1976 was quite warm and one of the warmest on record. Interesting how it went from warm to cold.Ptarmigan wrote:1976 went from La Nina to El Nino. The winter of 1976-1977 and 1977-1978 were very cold. They were back to back winters! I think we are in this phase again. 2009-2010 was very cold as well.
wxman57 wrote:Yes, temps across Alaska are 20-25F below normal presently. However, temps in western Canada are warmer than normal. Forecast is for temps to steadily rise in Alaska and western Canada over the next few weeks through the 3rd week of January. That would preclude any significant Arctic outbreak.
I'm looking at some high-res European model data that goes out 4 weeks now. You can't get this online (for free). The data include surface temperature anomalies and 850mb temperature anomalies through January 23rd. Here's what I see:
Week 1 (Dec 27-Jan 2)
Surface temps 1-2F above normal across SE TX through next Monday and 15-20F above normal across the Northern Plains.
Week 2 (Jan 3-9)
Surface temps near normal across SE TX and 15-20F above normal from the Central Plains through western Canada
Week 3 (Jan 10-16)
Surface temps 2-4F above normal across SE TX and 4-8F above normal from Nebraska through southwest Canada.
Week 4 (Jan 17-23)
Surface temps 4F above normal across SE TX and 6-8F above normal across most of the central and northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the Ohio Valley. Temps in western and NW Canada dropping to 2-4F below normal.
At 850mb (5000 ft), temps are well above normal across the U.S. and western Canada through the next 3 weeks. dropping to 2-3C below normal across western Canada in week 4.
The GFS is in basic agreement with the European model, which would mean no significant cold outbreaks through at least the first 3 weeks of January and possibly through January. There are forecasts of cooling in western Canada by the 4th week of January, though. This could lead to a cold outbreak early in February that might drop our temps significantly below freezing down south.
orangeblood wrote:No offense wxman57 but those Euro weeklies have been less than stellar so far this winter and back in November were plain garbage. They were forecasting, for the first week of December, 10-15 above normal for the southern plains into the southern rockies (2-3 weeks out) and it ended up being 10-15 below normal in that area. Not sure why you'd reference this longer term European model that far out given its track record of late?
The pattern seems to be priming itself for an Arctic outbreak starting around the 3rd week of January...NAO tanking, AO falling off its crazy positives, Stratospheric warming working its way across Canada and the MJO moving across the Pacific!!
But I prefer rain since we're in a drought.wxman57 wrote:And, by the way, my post above was merely my observations of what was depicted by the European model, not necessarily my forecast of what was going to happen. However, one thing appears certain. There isn't much cold air currently in Canada and there isn't much snow cover across the U.S., which means we're not likely to see much cold air down south through at least the 2nd week of January.
weatherdude1108 wrote:Does anyone have any insight on the supposed collapse of the polar vortex? I came across some YouTube video recently through an unrelated search I did for some other weather thing I was looking into. Anyway, I'm ignorant about it. Just curious of any ideas on it's effect on Texas' weather(?).
Back to La Nina sunny and dry for the time being.
Portastorm wrote:The recent chatter online suggests that the polar vortex may be getting displaced from where it has set up its location. When the polar vortex breaks down, per se, it is usually accompanied by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) which altogether can create a major turn to bitter cold for the continental US.
Here is a link to a decent article on the subject:
http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/climate-dynamics/polar-vortex-impact-winter-weather
hriverajr wrote:wxman57 wrote:And, by the way, my post above was merely my observations of what was depicted by the European model, not necessarily my forecast of what was going to happen. However, one thing appears certain. There isn't much cold air currently in Canada and there isn't much snow cover across the U.S., which means we're not likely to see much cold air down south through at least the 2nd week of January.
Yep its only common sense, you don't even have to look at the models. You have to have the cold air really build up. Takes time at least 5-7 days. Then it has to be dislodged and move south another 3-7 days. So at a minimum that is over a week. Right now we don't even have any indications of that happening short term. i would say we are safe from significant cold air intrusions (Texas) at least through the 7th of January and most likely longer.
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