Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Beware sticking to these OP runs during the pattern transition from Dec to Jan. All over the place...stick to the Ensembles beyond 3 days

[Ntxw]

Joe bastardi has sinned. He is trying to use the upcoming period relative with Jan 1964. We don't speak of the first dfw "footer" in these parts

[hriverajr]

Joe bastardi has sinned. He is trying to use the upcoming period relative with Jan 1964. We don't speak of the first dfw "footer" in these parts

Of course almost every video is east coast centric.. bugs me sometimes...hehe....

[Ntxw]

he is which is why you have to be careful when you hear him say cold blast. Cold blast in the NE sometimes ridge over the Rockies and Texas.

But he can be good at sniffing longwave patterns

[hriverajr]

I must say though..... he has been touting east coast trough. Tendencies have been for most troughs to be centered farther west. The correction he always touts for the European holding back energy when he says it should not has not come to fruition yet. None of our cold has been arctic in origin up to this point. I don't see any change in that yet.

The models did an okay job with the deep upper low recently. However with the more subtle features not so much. Remember 2-3 days ago..had this really weird dumbbelling lows out west. They have mostly gotten rid of that. Beyond 3 days or so, not doing a good job recently. So I take anything beyond a couple of days with many grains of salt.

[Texas Snowman]

I must say though..... he has been touting east coast trough. Tendencies have been for most troughs to be centered farther west. The correction he always touts for the European holding back energy when he says it should not has not come to fruition yet. None of our cold has been arctic in origin up to this point. I don't see any change in that yet.

The models did an okay job with the deep upper low recently. However with the more subtle features not so much. Remember 2-3 days ago..had this really weird dumbbelling lows out west. They have mostly gotten rid of that. Beyond 3 days or so, not doing a good job recently. So I take anything beyond a couple of days with many grains of salt.

So about that CAT 5 in the Gulf at 360 hours...

[orangeblood]

Significant Strat Warming taking place in the Northern Pacific....big implications down stream in the extended, which the Euro/Canadian are picking up on.

[downsouthman1]

Significant Strat Warming taking place in the Northern Pacific....big implications down stream in the extended, which the Euro/Canadian are picking up on.

That's an El Nino bomb. If that's true & with what some of the other models are showing verify, we will have major storms systems rolling through the low plains.

[Portastorm]

Could be a sign of things to come ... the 0z Euro op run laid down a swath of snow in the northern Hill Country and areas NW of Austin in the Jan. 7-8 time frame. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues.

[downsouthman1]

:uarrow:

Could be a sign of things to come ... the 0z Euro op run laid down a swath of snow in the northern Hill Country and areas NW of Austin in the Jan. 7-8 time frame. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues.

We don't need no Polar Vortex this year. Already had a blizzard without it. Set me straight on my thoughts of the things that are possible during strong El Nino's in 2015. I don't think we can compare 1997 because the climate has changed so much since then.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Could be a sign of things to come ... the 0z Euro op run laid down a swath of snow in the northern Hill Country and areas NW of Austin in the Jan. 7-8 time frame. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues.

We don't need no Polar Vortex this year. Already had a blizzard without it. Set me straight on my thoughts of the things that are possible during strong El Nino's in 2015. I don't think we can compare 1997 because the climate has changed so much since then.

I'm not certain about strong Ninos but as others here have said better than me, these patterns generally have produced some of the most significant snowfalls in Texas. Large, wet, cold core systems rolling west to east and if you're under them you "win."

Arctic outbreaks per se provide cold but are limited as precip producers except along the front itself.

[Ntxw]

Euro runs would be a good reason to not look beyond 3-5 days. From a mild W Canada to a much colder W Canada

[EnnisTx]

I know this is not Winter Weather related, but I read this post and thought I would re-post this because this is a very nice site for all who use it. I donated!


Post subject: Re: STORM2K CONTRIBUTIONS AND FINANCIAL UPDATE

PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:31 pm



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Our current PayPal balance is $925.23. We are paid through November. That leaves us enough to get through April if no more donations come in. That makes me uncomfortable after what we had to go through this past year to bring the site back up. I still have not paid myself back for the $1k+ I personally I paid to bring the site back up to date. If I don't ever get paid back it won't hurt me, but I know several places I could use that kind of money. Just putting it all out for everyone to see. I refuse to lie about the state of this site. I would feel much more comfortable if there were a 1 or better yet a 2 in front of the current amount available. Thanks to SC5, where our current server is located, we are enjoying a $60 a month saving over our old costs with more quite a bit more service than we got from our last host. They are also doing all of the work for our upgrade which is a massive undertaking since our current phpbb is so far out of date. Once that is accomplished we are going to look into other ways to generate funds, but that will not happen till the upgrade is completed.
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[TarrantWx]

Ryan Maue posted this on Twitter. Certainly looks interesting.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Very active gulf and east coast storm track about to occur for Jan-Feb. ECMWF weeklies have major cold Jan now coast to coast

[South Texas Storms]

Happy New Year everyone! 2016 will likely begin cold and wet across much of the southern half of Texas. I'm thankful for a very wet 2015 and I'm hoping for another wet year in 2016!

Here are the 2015 precipitation totals and anomalies across Texas. Much of the state has seen much above normal rainfall, with many areas receiving over 12 inches more than normal. Some areas near Houston have received over 100 inches of rain this year.

[drred4]

My yearly info from mybweather station.
Rai . 62.86 inches
Hi temp. 108.9
Lo temp. 21.1

Would love a dusting of snow or something wintry. For the new year.

Happy New Year all thanks for all the info y'all provide the lurkers.

[KatDaddy]

Happy New Year to everyone on the S2K forum!!! What will the weather bring in 2016 for SE TX? Snow, ice, flooding, severe weather, a hurricane threat………stay tuned throughout 2016.

[gpsnowman]

What will New Years Santa bring this year? I hope snow, ice, and cold, cold, cold. Happy New Year everyone!!!

[dhweather]

And don't forget that at 360 hours, there's a...

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!

Hey, that's my line!