SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[Tireman4]

55 degrees and raining steadily in Humble. After this summer, I will take it.....

[vbhoutex]

trust me we don't want to hoard it Vbhoutex!!!

Yep, I hear it has been a little nippy up there of late.
Well, so much for my reading the models correctly or so much for the models handling of this system-probably both. The front came through just before noon today(about 6 hours earlier than expected) and it is drizzling and 56F. I think our high of 74f was probably at midnight. Checking radar and listening to our local OCMs it looks like our weather will be deteriorating for a while with maybe a brief reprieve around Thursday before we get colder and wetter again around next weekend. It is really starting to look like we've begun our slow but sure stepdown into what we call Winter weather here in Houston.

Hmmmmm I think you should send that heat this-a-way and I'll be tickled pink to send all the goodness up here to you!

I still can't believe what you folks call winter!

I think it's called a matter of perspective. "Real" Winter here begins at around 50f. IE 60f-the long sleeves come out, 50f-the jackets or sweaters come out, 40f and many start bundling up. Anything below that is considered damn cold!!!
Currently 54f with rain, so no matter what your perspective is it is nasty, but we will take rain at any temperature these days. I am hoping these rains become weekly so we will at least stop losing ground with this freaking drought.

[ROCK]

Have to agree with VB,,,,,rain is good right now regardless of the temps.....nothing much from the GFS in the long range as far as wintery precip goes for us down here......but I am waiting for it. Need more snow pack to the north.

[Ptarmigan]

Have to agree with VB,,,,,rain is good right now regardless of the temps.....nothing much from the GFS in the long range as far as wintery precip goes for us down here......but I am waiting for it. Need more snow pack to the north.

I rather have rain right now. I could live without snow this winter as long as we have a wet winter. Snow would be nice though.

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff doesn't give much hope for warmth:

First week of December will be very winter like across TX with cloudy, cold, and damp conditions expected

Slow moving cold front has moved offshore this morning with a secondary and much stronger push of cold air currently moving through SE TX. Widespread rainfall overnight is slowly ending from W to E as the latest short wave passes off to the north this morning while snow is falling over NC TX this morning. Strong cold air advection regime will be in place today with gusty NW winds of 15-20mph and slowly falling temperatures. Given widespread clouds and light rain/drizzle most locations will remain in the 40’s.

Another weak vort is progged to move across the area tonight and Tuesday and this will help maintain cloud cover and at least a slight chance of light rain and drizzle. Surface cold dome will deepen with time, but SW flow aloft combined with embedded vorts in this flow support continued weak lifting over the cold dome. Think clouds will remain with a few periods of drizzle/light rain especially near the coast and offshore tonight-Tuesday as supported by the 00Z WRF showing western Gulf of Mexico activity trying to lift back northward tonight and Tuesday. Feel most of this will remain offshore, but some may move inland. With clouds and drizzle and continue cold air advection, highs on Tuesday will likely be in the mid to upper 40’s. Saturated profiles in the low level do not support significant wet bulb cooling even with drier air advection from the north, so no P-type issues are expected. When profiles do become somewhat favorable over our NW counties Tuesday night, most moisture will be well south of that area with only a trapped layer of moisture under the frontal inversion.

Main trough axis still well back to the west will sweep across the area on Wednesday and this should clear skies by late Wednesday after another cold day. Slower clearing will keep highs in the 40’s again, while faster clearing might result in 50’s across the region. 00Z NAM solution holds clouds tough over the region until late Wednesday afternoon and this seems reasonable. Clear skies and cold Thursday with a light freeze likely for many areas both Thursday and Friday AM. Most locations have already had their first freeze of the season, and this cold snap does not look any colder than the previous.

Bigger headaches appear Friday-next weekend as yet another trough digs into the SW US with increasing potential for south TX coastal troughing at some point next weekend. Models have been bouncing around with the intensity and placement of such a feature and there is not much better agreement today than yesterday. 00Z GFS has come in much drier for the weekend with the possible trough not taking shape until early the following week. Will likely see some sort of moisture begin to return back northward over the cold dome by Saturday with cloudy conditions likely by Sunday. Should a coastal trough/surface low form off the S TX coast then light rain/drizzle and cool/cold temperatures could be expected next weekend. Not expecting highs much above the upper 50’s Fri-Sun and if more clouds and rain develop highs could be held in the upper 40’s/low 50’s.

Many locations picked up another .5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours. Rainfall was fairly widespread and while much of the area remains in exceptional drought, the frequency of wetting rains has increased over the past 2 months. Hopefully we can maintain this active “wet” pattern through December and chip away at that massive rainfall deficit over the region.

BTW, it is 47.1f at the house and holding steady. IIRC it was 48f+ when I got up so it appears we are seeing a sssslllllooooowwwww drop in the temp. 1.27" of rain overnight.

[vbhoutex]

Down to 43f with a VERY light "drist" or "mizzle" that has been falling all evening. On the news some sent in pics of it saying it was snow, but it isn't cold enough for that yet. Doesn't look like we will get out of the 40's till Weds. unless we get some sunshine.

[vbhoutex]

No drist or mizzle so far today, but we are having a heat wave. Temp is up to 37.8F from a low of 36F this morning. Starting to wonder if we will break 40F today. If we don't get clearing soon we definitely won't and it may be difficult for the temp to drop to freezing unless it clears later. Starting to look a lot like December 2008 weather. This is weather we expect in January or February here in Houston.

[ROCK]

agree...with no clearing, no CAA thus we hold steady through much of today. Winds still a bit strong as well...I think I got to 42F but at 10am it was still 37F....now we get this type scenario in Jan with some over running precip that is where the fun begins. Just to soon...

[southerngale]

It never got out of the 30s here yesterday afternoon. My predicted low for last night was 32° and it got down to 28°. Tonight's predicted low is 25°.

I'm freezing my butt off. Anyone else missing shorts and tank tops yet?

[vbhoutex]

We managed a blistering 39f yesterday here in W. Houston. Low this morning was 27f. We went below freezing about midnight and it finally went above freezing around 8:30am so we had a good solid 8 hours below freezing. With it up to 34f at 10 am I don't expect it to get out of the 40's today. If it does it won't be very much. Jeff Lindner doesn't call for much warm up either.
This is the latest from Jeff:

Cold with Clouds Returning‏

9:34 AM


Widespread freeze across the area this morning with low temperatures falling into the mid to upper 20’s for most areas to near 30-33 along the beaches under clear skies and modest NW winds. Interestingly both Victoria and Port Lavaca fell to 23 this morning although the Victoria sensor looks to be malfunctioning, both of these sites were about 3-5 degrees colder than surrounding obs, but then Corpus managed 26 so it looks like a fairly decent freeze along the coastal plains this morning. A few lows this morning:

Bush IAH: 30
Hobby: 33
Sugar Land: 28
College Station: 26
Tomball: 28
Conroe: 29
Wharton: 28
Palacios: 27
Bay City: 30
Crockett: 30
Huntsville: 29
Austin Berg: 22
San Antonio: 28
Cotulla: 25

High pressure in control of the weather over the state with cold NW winds flowing SE off the snow covered plains of NW TX this morning which will result in a very slow warm up today even with full sun. Expect highs to only touch 50 early this afternoon and then begin a rapid decline this evening. All of the area will freeze again tonight, but lows will be about the same as this morning under clear skies and light winds. Most sensitive vegetation has likely already been frozen and we are not looking at a hard freeze, so no warnings are likely for Thursday AM.

If you like the sun take advantage of it today as the rest of the forecast looks to turn cloudy, cold, and damp. Nearby sub-tropical jet extending from the central Pacific across S TX will result in a gradual overrunning of moisture over the cold surface dome starting later Thursday. As moisture begins to spread back across the surface cold dome, clouds will increase from south to north late Thursday with most areas cloudy by Thursday evening. Weak front will cross the region on Friday and this boundary combined with ongoing isentropic lifting of moisture over the surface cold dome will support a slight chances of showers mainly from Wharton to Galveston and southward.

Front moves off the coast Friday afternoon and with continued sub-tropical jet overhead and a newly developing storm over the SW US, south TX coastal surface trough is forecasted to develop Saturday into Sunday. SE winds above the surface will swing moisture northward over the cold dome at the surface while developing surface low near/ESE of Brownsville will lock NNE to NE surface winds in place keeping the cold surface air in place. Saturday will likely be the best of the two weekend days with Sunday featuring more clouds and rainfall. Expect to see isolated showers Saturday from Matagorda Bay southward and then more widespread light rain/drizzle Sunday across much of the area. Highs will depend on the amount of cloud cover and rainfall coverage over the weekend, but the trend is pointing toward more clouds and rain helping to keep highs in the lower 50’s, some areas may not get out of the 40’s either day under thicker clouds.

Surface trough develops into a full blow coastal low by Monday and begins to skirt NE along the TX offshore waters. This is a classic coastal track for widespread rains Sunday night into Monday night with cold surface temperatures. May see some decent thunderstorm chances near the coast/offshore Monday depending on where the low tracks. Inland mostly a widespread light to at times moderate rainfall. Temperatures will be on the cold side with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 40’s/50’s. With the air column saturated and little cold air advection in the Sun-Mon night time period this will be an all liquid system. Still a few days out on this feature and the models have been differing on timing and how quickly things ramp up and then move northeast. With energy still back to our SW Monday, expect the slower ejection of the trough and coastal low, so this may linger rain chances into next Tuesday.

Interestingly enough we have fallen into a fairly wet pattern of late with widespread rain making system about every 2-4 days…a pattern more common during TX El Nino years instead of La Nina. Recent rains seem to be tied to an enhancement of tropical convection in the central Pacific and the downstream affect of a more moisture filled sub-tropical jet stream over TX. Do not expect this pattern to last much beyond late December, so we will take the rains as they come for now, as a drier La Nina pattern should begin to return toward the start of 2012.

[PTrackerLA]

Just a few days ago it looked like we may not even reach freezing tonight and now we're under a hard freeze warning. Have only managed to make it to 46 as of 3pm under clear skies. I expect temperatures to plummet rapidly after sunset.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...
...FREEZE WARNING FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...

.COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AFTER
SUNSET...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COMMENCE...RESULTING IN AN AREA WIDE
FREEZE.

LAZ027>033-041>045-TXZ180-201-216-259>262-080600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.W.0012.111208T0300Z-111208T1500Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-
HARDIN-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...
LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
1030 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
...AND RANGE FROM 24 TO 27 BY DAYBREAK. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS...RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT EXPOSED
PIPES...PLANTS...AND PETS.

[vbhoutex]

We managed 48f here at the house today. We are not under a hard freeze or freeze warning that I am aware of, but we are expecting lows around 28f-30f tonight. I am wondering if we will get lower as it is already 34.3f. We may be starting to get a little return flow from the S or SE as it has been at that temp for a while after dropping like a rock earlier. I'll keep watching till bed time.

[BigB0882]

35 degrees! This is typical late Jan/early Feb weather.

[vbhoutex]

We managed 48f here at the house today. We are not under a hard freeze or freeze warning that I am aware of, but we are expecting lows around 28f-30f tonight. I am wondering if we will get lower as it is already 34.3f. We may be starting to get a little return flow from the S or SE as it has been at that temp for a while after dropping like a rock earlier. I'll keep watching till bed time.

32f at 9:50pm
What he said.

[pwrdog]

It looks like we will see a few 20-22 readings in the colder spots dotted across SE Texas..

Like my house.. It's already down to 25 in the hollow @ 11:50 pm..

Conroe, Montgomery County Airport is mdown to 27 @ 11:30 pm



update.

24.4 F @ 1:30 AM I think 22 F is in the bag.. going to bed..

Update...
Well it made it down to 21.8 F in one of the coldest places in SE Texas.... Pretty dang cold..


It looks like Nacogdoches, TX (KOCH) had the Texas state and East Texas low @ 17 F..

[vbhoutex]

We managed 48f here at the house today. We are not under a hard freeze or freeze warning that I am aware of, but we are expecting lows around 28f-30f tonight. I am wondering if we will get lower as it is already 34.3f. We may be starting to get a little return flow from the S or SE as it has been at that temp for a while after dropping like a rock earlier. I'll keep watching till bed time.

32f at 9:50pm
What he said.

29.5f@12:36am

[ROCK]

Just how crazy those temps are...I am in North IL around Cyrstal Lake with temps around 25F....and this is up here....Flying back tomorrow so I look forward to the 40's.....Its a dry cold up here though...

[vbhoutex]

We managed 48f here at the house today. We are not under a hard freeze or freeze warning that I am aware of, but we are expecting lows around 28f-30f tonight. I am wondering if we will get lower as it is already 34.3f. We may be starting to get a little return flow from the S or SE as it has been at that temp for a while after dropping like a rock earlier. I'll keep watching till bed time.

32f at 9:50pm
What he said.

29.5f@12:36am

Low this am was 27.9f here at the house. Revising yesterday's low to 26.2f after remembering how to review temps. Doesn't look like we will get out of the 50'still sometime next week. I need some 60's so I can do some spray painting of Christmas decorations.

[vbhoutex]

Here's something for grins and dreams:

[southerngale]

David, I'm not EVEN gonna fall for those maps this year.


I had a low of 24° yesterday. That's cold, especially for early December!