Texas Winter 2017-2018

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Theepicman116
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1541 Postby Theepicman116 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:54 am

Freezing rain for the DFW area on Christmas Eve. That’s the GFS model right now. I don’t want to lose power. Some of my presents may require electricity and being charged. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1542 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:55 am

One thing to consider is that also we could be getting into that mid range period where the models start to lose some of the cold only to pick it up again in the shorter range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1543 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:17 am

Cpv17 wrote:One thing to consider is that also we could be getting into that mid range period where the models start to lose some of the cold only to pick it up again in the shorter range.

My thoughts also, this is the GFS after all. -EPO means ridging over NW North America. PNA directs that cold with negative sending cold west and positive sending cold east. We are looking at - to even --EPO and = to -PNA. No matter what the model runs show these teleconnections rule in the long range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1544 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:28 am

I can't wait for the 12z GFS run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1545 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:33 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:One thing to consider is that also we could be getting into that mid range period where the models start to lose some of the cold only to pick it up again in the shorter range.

My thoughts also, this is the GFS after all. -EPO means ridging over NW North America. PNA directs that cold with negative sending cold west and positive sending cold east. We are looking at - to even --EPO and = to -PNA. No matter what the model runs show these teleconnections rule in the long range.


I don't think they have lost it. In fact getting more resolution closer. The thing that may get them for awhile is the upper flow confuses the models with low level cold on and off as many have posted above. Pretty typical until hi res model range
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1546 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:39 am

Ntxw wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:One thing to consider is that also we could be getting into that mid range period where the models start to lose some of the cold only to pick it up again in the shorter range.

My thoughts also, this is the GFS after all. -EPO means ridging over NW North America. PNA directs that cold with negative sending cold west and positive sending cold east. We are looking at - to even --EPO and = to -PNA. No matter what the model runs show these teleconnections rule in the long range.


I don't think they have lost it. In fact getting more resolution closer. The thing that may get them for awhile is the upper flow confuses the models with low level cold on and off as many have posted above. Pretty typical until hi res model range


6z didn’t lose it all. When watching for Winter Weather patterns, my order of reading the models (in terms of importance) goes:

1) MJO forecast
2)Upper air pattern thru the end (on one browser)
3)850 temps (on 2nd browser)
4)Temp output (on 3rd browser)
5) Precip (toggle on 3rd)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1547 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:49 am

Take a look at this and tell me it isn’t going to get cold, and Support it (you can’t BTW)

Image

Image

Image

1) - - EPO
2) PNA moves toward neutral
3) I see no advertisement of an anomalous SE ridge in the above like the models want to output in their operational
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1548 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:57 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Take a look at this and tell me it isn’t going to get cold, and Support it (you can’t BTW)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts ... ndices.png

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

1) - - EPO
2) PNA moves toward neutral
3) I see no advertisement of an anomalous SE ridge in the above like the models want to output in their operational


The SE ridge is a downstream effect of the PNA. When the -PNA exist, there is a SE ridge because the western trough kicks up the ridge to the east. +PNA is the reverse. Nina climo is - while Nino climo is +
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1549 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:59 am

Ntxw wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Take a look at this and tell me it isn’t going to get cold, and Support it (you can’t BTW)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts ... ndices.png

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

1) - - EPO
2) PNA moves toward neutral
3) I see no advertisement of an anomalous SE ridge in the above like the models want to output in their operational


The SE ridge is a downstream effect of the PNA. When the -PNA exist, there is a SE ridge because the western trough kicks up the ridge to the east. +PNA is the reverse. Nina climo is - while Nino climo is +


I realize that. My point is (and I should’ve spelled this out better) the GFS op keeps the ridge well past the move to neutral and positive. It doesn’t make sense.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1550 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:16 am

Can you Texas people allow the Southeast ridge to not be as strong? :ggreen: We don't want another 80 degree Christmas. :x
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1551 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:29 am

12Z GFS is much faster with the cold air arriving in SE Texas - Friday morning, the 22nd.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1552 Postby spencer817 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:37 am

Precip basically is avoiding DFW this run, another S TX event this run.
Last edited by spencer817 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1553 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:38 am

That’s 19 in a row and 20 of 22 showing an arctic front late next week. About 80% of the runs show a Texas storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1554 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:41 am

moisture prob will be there but I don't know if it will be cold enough...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1555 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:47 am

No major cold being shown on the 12z. Has SE TX staying above freezing through 240 hours. Plenty of moisture though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1556 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:47 am

stormlover2013 wrote:moisture prob will be there but I don't know if it will be cold enough...


Actual always runs colder than modeled. If this was real time I’d say there would be a high likelihood.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1557 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:51 am

Cpv17 wrote:No major cold being shown on the 12z. Has SE TX staying above freezing through 240 hours. Plenty of moisture though.


Again, it shows an Arctic front reversing for about 12-18 hours the. The secondary reinforcing shot of cold air comes through and knocks everyone below freezing at 300.

Arctic fronts don’t back up and the ridge just isn’t that strong if you’re to believe the TI.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1558 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:53 am

Ummmmm, this could be concerning in my part of Texas. :eek: :froze: It looks like it would be an ICE Christmas instead of a white Christmas. We are supposed to be traveling from Austin to San Antonio on Christmas morning. May be a "slushy" drive there(?). Crazy models!

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1559 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:54 am

Note that if Arctic air does make it south into Texas around the 22nd, the GFS will always have a problem handling the southward extent of the cold air. I can see that in the 23rd-25th time period. It's trying to drive the Arctic air northward. That would be unlikely. What this means is that temperatures across southeast and south Texas could be colder than the GFS is indicating. Now that's not my forecast, as it is way too far out to have any confidence at all in the temps/precip next weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1560 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:55 am

Inches of freezing rain across the Hill Country (12Z GFS) would not be good. Perhaps they would have power restored by spring, though...
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