Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

"ugly" is not the rite word for it, Tyler, AWESOME is(I'm a big fan of icestorms...theyre the only way i can ever get school cancelled)

As I am, I remember back in Jan 97, Houston had a major Ice Storm, and for the first time ever, I had actual days off of school, it was great!

[cheezyWXguy]

I think that back in 98 or 99 we had a big one up here...I was pretty young, onl about 7 or 8 so i can barely remeber it, but I think we had 1 or 2 days off of school and and about 3 inches of ice with a few little drifts( it was pretty windy)also come to think of it, I really dont know what year it was but it was in that 1996- 1999 period

[Portastorm]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

Once again, CC, I'm with you and don't agree with Tyler's forecast (sorry dude). I'm not convinced this weekend is a non-event. I have seen some nasty wintry weather events here in the Austin area in similar patterns, where shallow cold airmasses play havoc with the forecasts. I would be wary of ruling anything out yet!

This weekend is not a non-event. Much needed rain could fall across Texas, we are entering an overrunning pattern. Freezing rain or snow could reach as far south as the OK/TX border, but the darn Gulf ridge is not going to let any kind of suprises happen in the forecast, if it wasn't for that, I would 100% agree with you guys. A 1056 high is something that can yeild suprising results, excpet with the upcoming pattern...

This is just what I'm thinking. I could be wrong, and I'd love to wishcast a cold outbreak for Texas, I just don't see it. We need a high pressure of 1070, 1056 is just too weak (suprisingly).

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong stuff but I just don't see this Gulf ridge you keep talking about. Also HPC's manual progs today move the Arctic air through Texas by Sunday and do not hold it up near the Red River.

If there was some monster ridge developing in the Gulf I'd understand ... but I just don't see it.

[Jim Cantore]

not to often do you see a freeze watch in Miami

Seriously. It is going to be quite chilly there tonight and tomorrow night...not a good time for a vacation there. Tomorrow night Homestead is expecting 35F with 20mph gusts meaning a wind chill in the 20s. Further north in the state...the Orlando area will be near 29-31F tonight and tomorrow night...and in northern FL, Tallahasse will be 25F tonight and 23F tomorrow night. When I lived in Orlando, I can rarely ever remember seeing a freeze this well into February. A rare event for sure...

alot of dead palms I'd guess

[Tyler]

I don't know. I just think this might be one of those occurances where the air may just seap through the flow and surprise even the most accurate forecasters. Just a gut call here, nothing more.

Once again, CC, I'm with you and don't agree with Tyler's forecast (sorry dude). I'm not convinced this weekend is a non-event. I have seen some nasty wintry weather events here in the Austin area in similar patterns, where shallow cold airmasses play havoc with the forecasts. I would be wary of ruling anything out yet!

This weekend is not a non-event. Much needed rain could fall across Texas, we are entering an overrunning pattern. Freezing rain or snow could reach as far south as the OK/TX border, but the darn Gulf ridge is not going to let any kind of suprises happen in the forecast, if it wasn't for that, I would 100% agree with you guys. A 1056 high is something that can yeild suprising results, excpet with the upcoming pattern...

This is just what I'm thinking. I could be wrong, and I'd love to wishcast a cold outbreak for Texas, I just don't see it. We need a high pressure of 1070, 1056 is just too weak (suprisingly).

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong stuff but I just don't see this Gulf ridge you keep talking about. Also HPC's manual progs today move the Arctic air through Texas by Sunday and do not hold it up near the Red River.

If there was some monster ridge developing in the Gulf I'd understand ... but I just don't see it.

Okay, first off, cool air will move through Texas, but the bitterly cold stuff will be hung up in the Plains, and pushed off to the east. Texas will get a very weak push of cool air, but considering the source of this cool air, it will be just cold enough for North Texas to possibly have icing potential.

And I never said the Gulf ridge was monster or massive. Don't know what you are talking about there. Both the GFS and ECMWF show high heights building in the Gulf and Mexico, creating a ridge. So unless you are looking at a Japanese model, I don't see how you can't see it...

Euro day 7 heights:


I would love to forecast really cold air for Texas and the south, but its not coming, however, an extremely modified push of cool air is, which will put the south in a cool, cloudy, wet, and dreary mode. With the cold air in North Texas, AR, northern, AL, GA just cold enough for a possible icing event. This is going to be a full blown overrunning event, and with the shallow cold air in place, the icing potential concerns me...

If I was living in the midwest, or northeast, I would be very happy with the upcoming pattern. Overrunning snow events seem likley...

[cheezyWXguy]

I sure am glad I live up here in NTX...Evryones getting in my face about an arctic outbreak forecasted for last weekend and I really need this to come thru for me

[cheezyWXguy]

sure am glad I live up here in NTX...Evryones getting in my face about an arctic outbreak forecasted for last weekend and I really need this to come thru for me

^^what I meant when I said that was a lot of my friends from school are getting in my face

[richtrav]

not to often do you see a freeze watch in Miami

Seriously. It is going to be quite chilly there tonight and tomorrow night...not a good time for a vacation there. Tomorrow night Homestead is expecting 35F with 20mph gusts meaning a wind chill in the 20s. Further north in the state...the Orlando area will be near 29-31F tonight and tomorrow night...and in northern FL, Tallahasse will be 25F tonight and 23F tomorrow night. When I lived in Orlando, I can rarely ever remember seeing a freeze this well into February. A rare event for sure...

alot of dead palms I'd guess

No, they should be fine if those temps hold up. Even the tropical palms can go through what they're expecting in Orlando tonight if doesn't last long, though they may get a little temporary scorching. This is NOT 1985

[gboudx]

"ugly" is not the rite word for it, Tyler, AWESOME is(I'm a big fan of icestorms...theyre the only way i can ever get school cancelled)

You like icestorms? Which part do you like the most; power lines snapping and losing electricity for days, or losing traction while driving home from work and praying you don't get in an accident?

[cheezyWXguy]

In the many icestorms ive been in, living in NTX...Ive never lost power, and when there is an icestorm ...i have school cancelled(im only 15) and I dont have a car yet so i dont really have to worry about getting in car accidents...I no they can b trouble, but normally theres a lot of wind with our NTX snow/ ice storms so the only thing they have a chance to stick to is the ground and bushes...not powerlines or trees...besides I hope ppl are smart enough to stay home during an icestorm, especially on a weekend

[Tyler]

Ok, I've made a map of the upcoming pattern for this weekend...



First off, a strong high pressure system will dive out of Canada, bringing with it the coldest air of the season to affect the lower 48. It will be downright frigid for the Plains and northeast.

For the midwest, an area of low pressure will track across the area, bringing with it a chance of significant snowfall for many people, around Thursday. Lucky you! A great pattern for the midwest.

For the northwest, it will become MUCH colder, as arctic air sweeps into the region, and snow levels will drop to near sea level. This will open up the chance for Seattle and Portland to recieve quite a few chances of some snow!! Great pattern for Pac NW.

For the northeast, after a chance of rain on Friday, an arctic front will move through, bringing with it BITTERLY cold, and I mean BITTERLY FRIGID COLD temperatures will dominate the region. You guys better be prepared for that.

For the South, here is where the trouble lies. As the bitterly cold air stays bottled up in the plains and northeast, just a dap of some of that cold air will push to the south all the way into the Gulf. This air will be cold, but shallow, but still nowhere near as cold as in the midwest. The problem in getting bitterly cold arctic air down this far south is the zonal flow across the US, and an upper ridge developing in the Gulf, as well as too low of pressures in the west, this will help to squash any REALLY cold air to move down here. However, due to such a strong high pressure system, a bit of cold air will slowly move down here. There will also be a southwest flow with this shallow cold air around. And there is the problem. ICE POTENTIAL. Overrunning will produce a chance of frozen precip for OK, TN, NC, and SC, and northern areas of TX, AL, MS, and GA. With the shallow cold air around, freezing rain or sleet may occur. Snowflakes are possible, but it won't be cold enough at all levels to support this. This setup has huge potential for an ice storm, but right now, to exactly pinpoint exactly when and if this happens is a bit difficult. We are still a bit too far away to tell exactly when the best chance of icing to occur. My advise is for people living in those areas to keep up with the latest forecasts from the NWS and your local media, as things could get interesting.

Meanwhile, south of that area, it will be very cool, cloudy and dreary, with increasing chances of plain ol rain. Much-needed rain! But not cold, as the arctic air stays north of the region.

Well, those are my thoughts right now...

[gboudx]

You're 15 so I'll cut you some slack. I've been at work many times when it started freezing rain outside. The drive home was a complete pain and took forever. I lost power during an ice storm when I lived in Carrollton. It gets cold pretty quick when there's no way to make heat.

[Portastorm]

You're 15 so I'll cut you some slack. I've been at work many times when it started freezing rain outside. The drive home was a complete pain and took forever. I lost power during an ice storm when I lived in Carrollton. It gets cold pretty quick when there's no way to make heat.

Amen to that!

Ice storms are an absolutely dreadful experience. I almost always lose power, not to mention the severe anxiety experienced when trying to drive home from work in such an event.

The excitement of the actual event loses its lustre when you have no power to watch tv, listen to the radio (outside of batteries), or heat to feel comfortable in your house while its freezing outside. What did I forget? Oh yeah, losing major tree limbs from my pecan trees due to the weight of the ice. Yeah ... I hate 'em.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya I know what you mean, Gboudx. Both of my parents work at home( my dad goes on business trips sometimes) and the ice around here just never seems to stick to powerlines...sometimes it sticks to the trees...and even tho there arent many trees here..there pretty sturdy...havent seen more than a few large twigs falling of those trees

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know if I completely agree with you this time Tyler. I think it will be more than just "cool" here in Houston. Remember, compared to averages, "cool" in February is like 60F for a high. I think we will be much below 60F during this upcoming weekend with clouds and rain. I also think that chances for ice reach as far south as Austin and College station during the night time hours (as lows of AT LEAST 30-35F will be common in those areas)...in fact, I would not even be surprised if Houston saw some ice from this situation (and I hope we do). Also...I think the NWS may be more in line with the situation. Currently they are forecasting 50s for the weekend with lows near 40F..but they also stated in their discussions that ALL major models are trending colder. Here is the latest Houston AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
226 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALREADY
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA DUE TO
FALLING PRESSURES OVER NW TX. DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW ACROSS REGION
...IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE RAPIDLY
MOVING NW TO SE SHORT WAVE OVER COLORADO. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS TX TOMORROW. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THIS FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
MID LEVELS INDICATED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY BY GFS AND NAM THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY MID WEEK. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO GO UP CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ZONAL AS LARGE VORTEX
OVER NORTH- CENTRAL CANADA START TROUGHING MORE TO THE WEST BY
MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION BECOMING MORE WSW
TOWARD END OF WEEK. THIS IS WHEN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE (CANADIAN
ORIGIN) START TO PUSH SSE FROM WESTERN CANADA. SHALLOW
COLD DOME OF AIR WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWFA PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY AND THEN PUSH FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
/EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN/GFS AND ECMWF ARE GETTING CLOSER IN
SOLUTIONS WITH LATE WEEK TO WEEKEND SCENARIO. SHALLOW COLD AIR
EXPECTED TO OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. HARD TO SAY FOR NOW IF
THERE WILL BE ANY (OR ANY OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE) UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE(S) MOVING ACROSS THE WSW FLOW ALOFT (OVER OUR REGION) DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...GFS INDICATE SOME MOISTENING AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH
LOW SIDE OF CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRYING
AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. WE SHALL STAY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. 37


...looks interesting to say the least...

[Tyler]

I don't know if I completely agree with you this time Tyler. I think it will be more than just "cool" here in Houston. Remember, compared to averages, "cool" in February is like 60F for a high. I think we will be much below 60F during this upcoming weekend with clouds and rain. I also think that chances for ice reach as far south as Austin and College station during the night time hours (as lows of AT LEAST 30-35F will be common in those areas)...in fact, I would not even be surprised if Houston saw some ice from this situation (and I hope we do). Also...I think the NWS may be more in line with the situation. Currently they are forecasting 50s for the weekend with lows near 40F..but they also stated in their discussions that ALL major models are trending colder. Here is the latest Houston AFD:

i]

I said it will be in the 50s as well. I never said it wouldn't be. And models aren't trending colder, they are trending closer together as far as timing is concerned... However, becuase of the upper air pattern, the farthest south ice could reach would be Waco. Austin and College Station should be fine. Due to clouds and rain, I don't think anyone will see 30s this weekend, mid 40s at best. This airmass coming in is not that cold. Cold enough to support freezing rain in Dallas, however. That is my concern. Wet and dreary weekend ahead.

Extreme, you have to look at the upper air pattern man. Low pressures in the west, a gulf ridge, and zonal flow do not send arctic air to Houston. Even with a massive 1056MB high, the ridge will do its part to only send us a modified, almost pacific like, airmass. My concern is Dallas. Major icing potential coming up.

[southerngale]

Overall, it was a chilly weekend, but I didn't even get a fire out of it.
It wasn't cold enough during the day. It was cold enough at night, but by the time I got home and could, it was so late, I just turned on the heater to get the chill out of the house.

Oh well, at least it's been cooler during the day and not shorts weather!

[jdray]

It all made its way to North Florida apparently....