Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Brent]

[hriverajr]

6z gfs looks cold....Let's see if it's consistent

[wxman57]

Looks like I need to throw some HEAT into the environment. It's too dang cold!

[hriverajr]

Looks like I need to throw some HEAT into the environment. It's too dang cold!

Haha, actually looks chilly most of the next week here in Texas.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS and its 1058mb high in the well advertised Jan cold blast

The ghosts of 1966 flip. Throw in 1978 in the persistent cpc analogs pool

[South Texas Storms]

What a great start to 2016! Widespread light to moderate rain across much of the southern half of Texas. This will likely continue through this evening. Dry weather will return tomorrow with rain chances then returning by the middle part of the upcoming work week.

[Tireman4]

Looks like I need to throw some HEAT into the environment. It's too dang cold!

We are gonna win. We are gonna win. Makes my revising on my dissertation chapters somewhat palatable.

[Brent]

Looks like I need to throw some HEAT into the environment. It's too dang cold!

You ain't seen nothing yet...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Liking the pattern that is coming ahead. ALot of the air is being shunted to the east though. Not a fan of that. I think we need the PV to be shifted a bit more to the East.

[Ntxw]

Liking the pattern that is coming ahead. ALot of the air is being shunted to the east though. Not a fan of that. I think we need the PV to be shifted a bit more to the East.

If the coldest air is to our east, by product of +PNA. Remember +PNA centers low heights over the southeast. Hriverajr said it before, this benefits the eastern half of the state more than the western half.

Benefit of this is storms must go south across the gulf from Texas vs panhandle hookers. Storms take path of least resistance.

[hriverajr]

12z gfs still looks cold. Specific features, and where delivery of cold air goes, still way up in the air.

High pressure goes from 1057 to1035 in one model run. Very very confused model at the surface

[orangeblood]

12z gfs still looks cold. Specific features, and where delivery of cold air goes, still way up in the air.

12Z Canadian on the other hand, throws the Arctic Hammer down

[hriverajr]

Canadian usually runs a bit on cold side.

[Ntxw]

12z gfs still looks cold. Specific features, and where delivery of cold air goes, still way up in the air.

High pressure goes from 1057 to1035 in one model run. Very very confused model at the surface

GFS has been struggling. Its skill scores were bad around Christmas to start but this flip isn't helping the model

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: Canadian usually runs a bit on cold side.

We'll see...the cross polar flow setting up on ALL models is impressive to say the least, this appears to be a prime setup for an Arctic Outbreak from the Rockies eastward

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 12z Euro is on the cusp of unleashing a chunk of arctic air into the conus (with cold air already settled in place as it is now), with a roaring southern jet below.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the 12z Euro is on the cusp of unleashing a chunk of arctic air into the conus (with cold air already settled in place as it is now), with a roaring southern jet below.

-30C departures incoming out of the Canadian Prairies into the Plains.

[TheProfessor]

-10 in Ohio

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, looks like we will have the cold. Now, just need good timing with a low!

[srainhoutx]

I suspect the sub tropical jet with its embedded disturbances will not be an issues near the day 10-15 range. The MJO via all the reliable guidance should be entering a favorable Phase 8 during that time and even with the lag time of a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave moving East of the dateline, we likely will see an Eastern Pacific tropical connection. The Teleconnection Indices all favor the mid January timeframe for cold weather along and East of the Continental Divide. We really do not need a truly dry Arctic airmass to drop temperatures into the teens. The advertised pattern favors Gulf Coastal low/trough development, so I believe those looking for some wintry mischief potential may not have to wait too much longer. There is certainly not much of any moderation expected during the first couple of weeks in January. The warmth of December is long gone until Spring.

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 01 2016

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 16 2016-Fri Jan 29 2016

A complicated short term climate scenario is expected to continue to evolve over the next few weeks resulting in a challenging Week 3-4 outlook. Along with background strong El Nino conditions, a robust and coherent MJO continues to propagate eastward across the Tropics. The enhanced convective phase of this MJO is currently centered across the west central Pacific and is now constructively interfering with the low frequency El Nino base state. In addition to these factors, the AO is forecast by some of the model guidance to become negative (for a substantial period) for the first time this late autumn and winter during the upcoming preceding two week period. This forecast of the AO is consistent with the evolution of the ongoing MJO event and is likely to persist into the Week 3-4 outlook period and favors anomalous troughing across areas of eastern North America especially during Week-3. The above noted pattern change across the east (forecast to occur beginning in the Week-2 period) represents a major change from what has been observed on average to date this winter.

Dynamical model guidance is in generally good agreement among the CFS, ECMWF and JMA solutions across the Pacific Ocean and western North America and depicts positive height departures across the northwest Pacific Ocean, anomalous troughing west of Alaska southeastward to just of the coast of the western CONUS and anomalous ridging over eastern Alaska and western Canada. Across the eastern CONUS, substantial negative height departures are forecast by the CFS and ECMWF over the Southeast and mid Atlantic. In this area, the JMA solution diverges significantly from the other models and indicates considerably less troughing and even positive height departures across eastern Canada and parts of the northern CONUS. This solution was considered an outlier and discounted due to its inconsistency with the previously described MJO and AO evolution and their associated typical impacts.

The Week 3-4 outlook this week was prepared with considerations from background El Nino conditions, lagged impacts associated with the ongoing MJO, prospects for a negative AO phase continuing into the outlook period and available statistical and dynamical model guidance.

The temperature outlook depicts below normal temperatures favored for an area stretching from the central and southern High Plains eastward across the central and lower Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities are indicated across the Southeast where lagged impacts of the MJO, negative AO and dynamical model guidance are in the best agreement. Above normal temperatures are more likely along the West coast of the CONUS at modest probabilities and this area extends northward to include Alaska. Areas within this highlighted region are based, to varying degrees, on local SSTs, El Nino and MJO impacts and statistical and dynamical model guidance. Background El Nino conditions may temper cold temperatures across parts of the northern CONUS so EC or equal chances is forecast in this region.

For precipitation, there are elevated odds for above-median precipitation for much of the West coast, especially north-central California eastward across the Southwest to parts of the southern High Plains and along the Gulf coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities extend across the bottom half of the Florida Peninsula. Below median precipitation is highlighted from the northern Rockies eastward across the northern Plains and portions of the Great Lakes southward to include parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The highlighted areas are primarily based on statistical forecast guidance that incorporates information on ENSO, MJO and trends with adjustments made to some areas (primarily the central west coast) by dynamical model guidance. In the aforementioned region, the model guidance was consistent in indicating above median precipitation during the outlook period.

Above average temperatures and below median precipitation is forecast for Hawaii during the period.