North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

[vbhoutex]

if you check out the latest euro and canadian for 26th thru 29th could be interesting for the pandhandle east to east texas including the metroplex!

Indeed? Tell us more. Please post the models you are using and give a little explanantion of what you see so others less versed in the weather can learn please.

[mysterymachinebl]

something to watch for next week....from the FW NWS

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FAVORED. THEY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS...BUT ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE POOLING BENEATH BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS HAS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING A MUCH BIGGER PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. SINCE ITS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LOOK LIKE SPAGHETTI...WILL FILE THIS
RUN INTO THE NOT BUYING IT FOLDER. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/ENSEMBLE FORECAST PATTERN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SHALLOW LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY...WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE PLAUSIBLE AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...OUR FORECAST STAYS CONSERVATIVE WITH A COOL DOWN TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL AND LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CST MON JAN 26 2009

...PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING NEAR THE RED RIVER TODAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY...GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LAMPASAS...HILLSBORO...TO CANTON LINE WHERE AN ICE
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

SOUTH OF THE ICE STORM WARNING...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD FALL TO FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW AFTER 6 AM TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AVERAGE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END IN NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

.UPDATE...
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ONGOING. 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MOIST LAYER
EXTENDING UP TO 800 MB WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. DONT THINK WE WILL
SEE MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP BEFORE THE COLUMN MOISTENS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN THIS MORNING NEAR PARIS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY BEFORE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP BEGINS.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST. SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA TOMORROW. AFTER FROPA...FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONG AT ALL
LEVELS AND THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER
AND WILL PRODUCE LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
THROUGHOUT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXCEEDING
1/2 OF AN INCH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE POTENTIAL ICE STORM TOMORROW. EARLY LOOKS AT THE 12Z NAM
CONTINUES THE TREND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW. MANY AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX MOST LIKELY WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING IN THE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AND NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. 12Z GFS IS SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE
FROM JUST 6 HOURS AGO AND IS ALSO BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY NOON. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL ISSUE AN ICE STORM WARNING WITH THE MORNING UPDATE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARNING. THE WARNING
WILL BEGIN AT 00Z TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE
FREEZING LINE WILL DIVE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR.

[CaptinCrunch]

Well the little bit of ice and sleet was nice to see, but a pain to drive in. The kids were happy to get a snow day and did pretty much what I thought they would do, nothing.

We got around .25 total of mostly sleet with FR mixing in at times. I hope next weeks strong system comes in dry, or all snow...lol

BEYOND TONIGHT...WEAK REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. END OF
THE WEEK WEATHER WILL BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG FRONT. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS SOON AS SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER. RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY. DEEP TROF DIGGING
IN THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Monthly update:

The precip was much needed no matter how it came, as of the 27th we are still -.83 for the month.
Temp wise, we're +5.1 degrees above the monthly norm, thats half of what it was going into the month where we started out at +11.0 above.

If January ends with a above average monthly temp, it will be the 3rd month in a row with a + average since Halloween (which had a +11 avg)

P.S..... I included November in the above statement....lol

[CaptinCrunch]

January end of month report.

TEMPERATURE DATA

Average Daily Temp.......H/61.1........L/35.1

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 48.1
DPTR FM NORMAL: +4.0

HIGHEST:......84
LOWEST:......20

PRECIPITATION DATA

TOTAL FOR MONTH:......0.82"
DPTR FM NORMAL:.......-1.08"


February is our last WINTER month of the calender season, and if it ends with a above avg monthly Temp, this will make the 7th consecutive year that the NTX Halloween Analog proved correct. That Halloween (08, was +11) with an above/below avg temp is a sign of what the coming winter will be like.

[CaptinCrunch]

The Severe Weather Season starts early again this year. It's going to be a rough night ahead.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/gwarn/nwswarning.html

.

UPDATE...
FORMATION OF SQUALL LINE IS IN PROGRESS WITH DRYLINE BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD AND FILL IN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST
TRACKING PLACES THE SQUALL LINE ALONG A SHERMAN...FORT WORTH...
LAMPASAS LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT. 00Z (6PM) FWD SOUNDING REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR 1850 J/KG...LI OF -5.9...AND STRONG WIND
SHEAR 0-3KM. MAX WIND IS 120 KTS AROUND 38 KFT. THE MOVEMENT OF
THE WESTERN STORMS IS ESTIMATED 220 DEGREES AT 38 KTS.

[CaptinCrunch]

Sup everyone, been so busy with work and spring cleaning that I haven't had a chance to close out my Winter thread. Well what can I say, winter was a BUST for the most part, the months of N,D,J,F all averege above normal temp wise and below avg pricip wise. The only two real weather events we had this winter were the 2 bouts with ice. Never really got all that bad either time but it was frozen none the less.

Feburary Recap

[TEMPERATURE DATA]................................[PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY:.. 55.8............................TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.72
DPTR FM NORMAL: ... +6.4............................ DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.65
DAILY AVERAGE:....H/67.4.......L/44.2
HIGHEST: 86 Winters High
LOWEST: 26

January Recap

[TEMPERATURE DATA]........................................[PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 48.1....................................TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.82
DPTR FM NORMAL: +4.0.......................................DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.08
DAILY AVERAGE: H/61.1.......L/35.1
HIGHEST: 84
LOWEST: 20 Winters Low

December Recap

TEMPERATURE DATA]..........................................[PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 49.0....................................TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.27
DPTR FM NORMAL: +2.3.......................................DPTR FM NORMAL: -2.30
DAILY AVERAGE: H/61.1......L/36.8
HIGHEST: 83
LOWEST: 24


I wont post it but November was above avgerage as well...sucks don't it

So for the 7th straight season My Halloween Anlogy was dead on with it's forecast. Let's hope for a cold and wet Halloween 09, and the Winter that follows.

Canadain Weather Forecast was dead on as well, with record cold and snows.

Take care all and I'll see you around
Storm Chasing season has started!!!