The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Iceresistance wrote:GEFS is still very consistent with a good snowfall signal for the Southern Plains next week, but the GEFS & GFS are in conflict with each other.
GFS has been terrible beyond 3-4 days. New Euro says no significant snow for Southern Plains next week. Here's the 10-day ECMWF total accumulated snow map:
Planned a trip for Colorado Springs in January of 2022 a few months ago…I was worried about too much snow but it looks like I should be worrying that there’s no snow at all. Weird times!
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Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma! All opinions independent of employers and the university.
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
#164Postby AustinTXResident » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:17 pm
Iceresistance wrote: There was a SSW in January 2021, & it's effects were not felt until February 2021, the impact of an SSW can take anywhere from 3-8 Weeks
Again, a SSW was not the cause of the February 2021 Arctic outbreak in Texas.
#165Postby AustinTXResident » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:30 pm
November 2021 was the 42nd warmest / 80th coolest November on record (covering 121 years) for the Austin area. Precipitation was the 50th highest on record (covering 121 years).
Autumn 2021 tied 2019 for the 10th warmest / 111th coolest autumn on record (covering 121 years) for the Austin area. Precipitation was the 48th highest on record (covering 119 years).
The first 11 months of 2021 tied 1921 for the 23rd warmest / 100th coolest January-November periods on record (covering 123 years) for the Austin area. Precipitation was the 32nd highest on record (covering 116 years).
The last 12 months tied 2004-05 and 1932-33 for the 19th warmest / 103rd coolest December-November periods on record (covering 123 years) for the Austin area. Precipitation was the 25th highest on record (covering 115 years).
Last edited by AustinTXResident on Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
Not a forecasted freeze in sight. At this rate when it’s all said and done, the winter thread will have as few pages as the summer thread usually does. #cancel
Iceresistance wrote: There was a SSW in January 2021, & it's effects were not felt until February 2021, the impact of an SSW can take anywhere from 3-8 Weeks
Again, a SSW was not the cause of the February 2021 Arctic outbreak in Texas.
In addition, it's documented that an SSW event happened in January 2021, and since we had a PV event, it's a logical assumption. NOAA even states on their website that SSW events "can lead to a displacement or splitting of the polar vortex, so instead of cold air being locked above the polar region, it can push further south into the mid-latitudes.". (https://www.weather.gov/bis/sudden_stratospheric_warming_events
By the definition of a SSW event from NOAA, and given the results of the cold wave, I think it's entirely justified to say the SSW was a leading factor and cause of the arctic outbreak.
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Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma! All opinions independent of employers and the university.
Some signs in the ensembles that we might see a pattern flip heading into mid-month with the Western Ridge flipping to a SE Ridge. This would put Texas in the battle zone vs. being in the downslope.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Iceresistance wrote: There was a SSW in January 2021, & it's effects were not felt until February 2021, the impact of an SSW can take anywhere from 3-8 Weeks
Again, a SSW was not the cause of the February 2021 Arctic outbreak in Texas.
In addition, it's documented that an SSW event happened in January 2021, and since we had a PV event, it's a logical assumption. NOAA even states on their website that SSW events "can lead to a displacement or splitting of the polar vortex, so instead of cold air being locked above the polar region, it can push further south into the mid-latitudes.". (https://www.weather.gov/bis/sudden_stratospheric_warming_events
By the definition of a SSW event from NOAA, and given the results of the cold wave, I think it's entirely justified to say the SSW was a leading factor and cause of the arctic outbreak.
You can even go back further, a series of events occurred. December began the assault on the tropospheric vortex that worked from bottom up. Big El Nino-like Aleutian low (-AO couple) sent heatflux into the Arctic. That then led to a top down event from the weakened PV that extenuated the -AO right through February. It was then a matter of time when the Pacific would relent and the EPO allowed the cold to build over North America. The -AO set path that any cold air mass would be allowed southward. Some years they go to Eurasia but 2021 decided North America was the winner.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Yeah I'm not gonna be very optimistic about the next couple weeks at least if we can't even get snow upstream
Denver is making weather history this year as the city patiently waits to receive its first measurable snow of the 2021 winter season. This is the latest the city has ever waited for snow, according to the National Weather Service.
Last edited by Brent on Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Brent wrote:Yeah I'm not gonna be very optimistic about the next couple weeks at least if we can't even get snow upstream
Denver is making weather history this year as the city patiently waits to receive its first measurable snow of the 2021 winter season. This is the latest the city has ever waited for snow, according to the National Weather Service.
I might have been up there for the last significant front range snow last season, so since then they've seen as much snow as I have
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
I think we all just need to be patient. Signs are already pointing towards a flip, but it's likely going to be a slow process. Just a few days ago every model and ensemble but the GFS deterministic had a persistent deep trough over the SE/East Coast which would have been bad news for all of us. Now the ensembles are showing SE ridging developing with more troughiness on the west coast. Although this pattern isn't quite what you want for those in Texas, Brent and I could end up cashing in on some close calls. Eventually I think we do see us tap into that cold in Alaska and NW Canada unless the MJO dies for a long time again (our main problem). If that happens then yeah this winter may be lost.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
TheProfessor wrote:I think we all just need to be patient. Signs are already pointing towards a flip, but it's likely going to be a slow process. Just a few days ago every model and ensemble but the GFS deterministic had a persistent deep trough over the SE/East Coast which would have been bad news for all of us. Now the ensembles are showing SE ridging developing with more troughiness on the west coast. Although this pattern isn't quite what you want for those in Texas, Brent and I could end up cashing in on some close calls. Eventually I think we do see us tap into that cold in Alaska and NW Canada unless the MJO dies for a long time again (our main problem). If that happens then yeah this winter may be lost.
Would it be brutal if winter basically never existed this year? And the MJO has started back up at Phase 6.
(On the bolded): Don't forget me! Lol
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
TheProfessor wrote:I think we all just need to be patient. Signs are already pointing towards a flip, but it's likely going to be a slow process. Just a few days ago every model and ensemble but the GFS deterministic had a persistent deep trough over the SE/East Coast which would have been bad news for all of us. Now the ensembles are showing SE ridging developing with more troughiness on the west coast. Although this pattern isn't quite what you want for those in Texas, Brent and I could end up cashing in on some close calls. Eventually I think we do see us tap into that cold in Alaska and NW Canada unless the MJO dies for a long time again (our main problem). If that happens then yeah this winter may be lost.
Would it be brutal if winter basically never existed this year? And the MJO has started back up at Phase 6.
(On the bolded): Don't forget me! Lol
I mean 11-12 is still an analog... It only snowed an inch and a half here that year. May seem decent in Texas but up here it's one of the least snowy winters
But I also think it's early... If the pattern still looks bad towards Christmas then yeah maybe it's time to worry. Until then like I said most of December has been meh anyway lately
One thing I feel like lately is the seasons are delayed remember how late spring was? How late summer was and then drug on? Might see the same thing with winter
rwfromkansas wrote:If we can get a western trough it’s pretty much guaranteed to go east at some point.
Also, is there an MJO for dummies page? It’s the one weather concept that is just like Greek to me. All the phases are confusing.
Don't worry, it's Greek to a lot of forecasters too. I mostly just know it in very basic terms in how it relates to our weather. Phase 7 and 8 are typically cold phases for us while 1 and 2 favor severe weather (especially phase 2). I've seen some helpful tweet before, but don't have the time to dig them up.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
The MJO is relatively weak. In everyday terms phases 3-4-5-6 are La Nina (mild and dry) like phases and 7-8-1-2 are El Nino (cool and wet) like phases. How strong it is matters too.
So far it's been 'looping' around 4-5-6 but some of that is masked. Reason being is the dominant standing wave, or regions of 'lift' over the tropics is stagnant around Indonesia (maritime continent). This is evident the Nina is well coupled and controlling much of the driving forces currently.
The walker circulation is a good place to start if you want to connect some of the dots with the mjo and enso states.
One way you can look at modeling is CHI or irrotational wind vectors to see this background lift. If the MJO is to move out of 4-6 then you'd see a good forecast of green area move across the equatorial Pacific. However if you watch the loop it is mostly 'stuck' between 90E and 120E.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
I'm willing to bet that 50% of our winter is going to be heavy La Nina, so just sit back and enjoy the what we have. By late in the month hopefully we see a pattern shift that will at least give us a little taste of Winter starting in January. Just don't get overly excited as I have that feeling that Spring will be here by early March.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
