Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

GEFS is still very consistent with a good snowfall signal for the Southern Plains next week, but the GEFS & GFS are in conflict with each other.

GFS has been terrible beyond 3-4 days. New Euro says no significant snow for Southern Plains next week. Here's the 10-day ECMWF total accumulated snow map:

http://wxman57.com/images/EC10DaySnow.JPG

Thanks for the snow map, I was about to check it.

Also, I'm strongly thinking that the model trust is very low right now with the Ensembles & Operational models are having conflicting runs

[Cerlin]

Planned a trip for Colorado Springs in January of 2022 a few months ago…I was worried about too much snow but it looks like I should be worrying that there’s no snow at all. Weird times!

[Ntxw]

I'd definitely be concerned about medium to long term drought now. Everything you know about a true La Nina is here.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1466087318838816768

[AustinTXResident]

There was a SSW in January 2021, & it's effects were not felt until February 2021, the impact of an SSW can take anywhere from 3-8 Weeks

Again, a SSW was not the cause of the February 2021 Arctic outbreak in Texas.

[AustinTXResident]

November 2021 was the 42nd warmest / 80th coolest November on record (covering 121 years) for the Austin area. Precipitation was the 50th highest on record (covering 121 years).

Autumn 2021 tied 2019 for the 10th warmest / 111th coolest autumn on record (covering 121 years) for the Austin area. Precipitation was the 48th highest on record (covering 119 years).

The first 11 months of 2021 tied 1921 for the 23rd warmest / 100th coolest January-November periods on record (covering 123 years) for the Austin area. Precipitation was the 32nd highest on record (covering 116 years).

The last 12 months tied 2004-05 and 1932-33 for the 19th warmest / 103rd coolest December-November periods on record (covering 123 years) for the Austin area. Precipitation was the 25th highest on record (covering 115 years).

[Yukon Cornelius]

Not a forecasted freeze in sight. At this rate when it’s all said and done, the winter thread will have as few pages as the summer thread usually does. #cancel

[Cerlin]

There was a SSW in January 2021, & it's effects were not felt until February 2021, the impact of an SSW can take anywhere from 3-8 Weeks

Again, a SSW was not the cause of the February 2021 Arctic outbreak in Texas.

According to Wikipedia, The February Arctic Oubtreak was "caused by a southern migration of the polar vortex, likely caused by a sudden stratospheric warming event that occurred the prior month." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave)

In addition, it's documented that an SSW event happened in January 2021, and since we had a PV event, it's a logical assumption. NOAA even states on their website that SSW events "can lead to a displacement or splitting of the polar vortex, so instead of cold air being locked above the polar region, it can push further south into the mid-latitudes.". (https://www.weather.gov/bis/sudden_stratospheric_warming_events

By the definition of a SSW event from NOAA, and given the results of the cold wave, I think it's entirely justified to say the SSW was a leading factor and cause of the arctic outbreak.

[bubba hotep]

Some signs in the ensembles that we might see a pattern flip heading into mid-month with the Western Ridge flipping to a SE Ridge. This would put Texas in the battle zone vs. being in the downslope.

[Ntxw]

There was a SSW in January 2021, & it's effects were not felt until February 2021, the impact of an SSW can take anywhere from 3-8 Weeks

Again, a SSW was not the cause of the February 2021 Arctic outbreak in Texas.

According to Wikipedia, The February Arctic Oubtreak was "caused by a southern migration of the polar vortex, likely caused by a sudden stratospheric warming event that occurred the prior month." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave)

In addition, it's documented that an SSW event happened in January 2021, and since we had a PV event, it's a logical assumption. NOAA even states on their website that SSW events "can lead to a displacement or splitting of the polar vortex, so instead of cold air being locked above the polar region, it can push further south into the mid-latitudes.". (https://www.weather.gov/bis/sudden_stratospheric_warming_events

By the definition of a SSW event from NOAA, and given the results of the cold wave, I think it's entirely justified to say the SSW was a leading factor and cause of the arctic outbreak.

You can even go back further, a series of events occurred. December began the assault on the tropospheric vortex that worked from bottom up. Big El Nino-like Aleutian low (-AO couple) sent heatflux into the Arctic. That then led to a top down event from the weakened PV that extenuated the -AO right through February. It was then a matter of time when the Pacific would relent and the EPO allowed the cold to build over North America. The -AO set path that any cold air mass would be allowed southward. Some years they go to Eurasia but 2021 decided North America was the winner.

[Brent]

Yeah I'm not gonna be very optimistic about the next couple weeks at least if we can't even get snow upstream

Denver is making weather history this year as the city patiently waits to receive its first measurable snow of the 2021 winter season. This is the latest the city has ever waited for snow, according to the National Weather Service.

[bubba hotep]

Yeah I'm not gonna be very optimistic about the next couple weeks at least if we can't even get snow upstream

Denver is making weather history this year as the city patiently waits to receive its first measurable snow of the 2021 winter season. This is the latest the city has ever waited for snow, according to the National Weather Service.

I might have been up there for the last significant front range snow last season, so since then they've seen as much snow as I have

[gpsnowman]

Running the a/c on December 1 is never a good sign. And here I am. Granted, I was cooking but still.

[TheProfessor]

I think we all just need to be patient. Signs are already pointing towards a flip, but it's likely going to be a slow process. Just a few days ago every model and ensemble but the GFS deterministic had a persistent deep trough over the SE/East Coast which would have been bad news for all of us. Now the ensembles are showing SE ridging developing with more troughiness on the west coast. Although this pattern isn't quite what you want for those in Texas, Brent and I could end up cashing in on some close calls. Eventually I think we do see us tap into that cold in Alaska and NW Canada unless the MJO dies for a long time again (our main problem). If that happens then yeah this winter may be lost.

[Iceresistance]

I think we all just need to be patient. Signs are already pointing towards a flip, but it's likely going to be a slow process. Just a few days ago every model and ensemble but the GFS deterministic had a persistent deep trough over the SE/East Coast which would have been bad news for all of us. Now the ensembles are showing SE ridging developing with more troughiness on the west coast. Although this pattern isn't quite what you want for those in Texas, Brent and I could end up cashing in on some close calls. Eventually I think we do see us tap into that cold in Alaska and NW Canada unless the MJO dies for a long time again (our main problem). If that happens then yeah this winter may be lost.

Would it be brutal if winter basically never existed this year? And the MJO has started back up at Phase 6.

(On the bolded): Don't forget me! Lol

[Brent]

I think we all just need to be patient. Signs are already pointing towards a flip, but it's likely going to be a slow process. Just a few days ago every model and ensemble but the GFS deterministic had a persistent deep trough over the SE/East Coast which would have been bad news for all of us. Now the ensembles are showing SE ridging developing with more troughiness on the west coast. Although this pattern isn't quite what you want for those in Texas, Brent and I could end up cashing in on some close calls. Eventually I think we do see us tap into that cold in Alaska and NW Canada unless the MJO dies for a long time again (our main problem). If that happens then yeah this winter may be lost.

Would it be brutal if winter basically never existed this year? And the MJO has started back up at Phase 6.

(On the bolded): Don't forget me! Lol

I mean 11-12 is still an analog... It only snowed an inch and a half here that year. May seem decent in Texas but up here it's one of the least snowy winters

But I also think it's early... If the pattern still looks bad towards Christmas then yeah maybe it's time to worry. Until then like I said most of December has been meh anyway lately

One thing I feel like lately is the seasons are delayed remember how late spring was? How late summer was and then drug on? Might see the same thing with winter

[rwfromkansas]

If we can get a western trough it’s pretty much guaranteed to go east at some point.

Also, is there an MJO for dummies page? It’s the one weather concept that is just like Greek to me. All the phases are confusing.

[TheProfessor]

If we can get a western trough it’s pretty much guaranteed to go east at some point.

Also, is there an MJO for dummies page? It’s the one weather concept that is just like Greek to me. All the phases are confusing.

Don't worry, it's Greek to a lot of forecasters too. I mostly just know it in very basic terms in how it relates to our weather. Phase 7 and 8 are typically cold phases for us while 1 and 2 favor severe weather (especially phase 2). I've seen some helpful tweet before, but don't have the time to dig them up.

[Ntxw]

The MJO is relatively weak. In everyday terms phases 3-4-5-6 are La Nina (mild and dry) like phases and 7-8-1-2 are El Nino (cool and wet) like phases. How strong it is matters too.

So far it's been 'looping' around 4-5-6 but some of that is masked. Reason being is the dominant standing wave, or regions of 'lift' over the tropics is stagnant around Indonesia (maritime continent). This is evident the Nina is well coupled and controlling much of the driving forces currently.

The walker circulation is a good place to start if you want to connect some of the dots with the mjo and enso states.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... eric-buddy

One way you can look at modeling is CHI or irrotational wind vectors to see this background lift. If the MJO is to move out of 4-6 then you'd see a good forecast of green area move across the equatorial Pacific. However if you watch the loop it is mostly 'stuck' between 90E and 120E.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm willing to bet that 50% of our winter is going to be heavy La Nina, so just sit back and enjoy the what we have. By late in the month hopefully we see a pattern shift that will at least give us a little taste of Winter starting in January. Just don't get overly excited as I have that feeling that Spring will be here by early March.

[Iceresistance]

Note that the Stratwarm over Canada on the 18z GFS causes a destabilization of the Polar Vortex.


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/gfs_Tz10_nhem_fh-72-384.gif