0z GFS VERY intresting

[Stephanie]

Those maps are for 1/23 which is 11 days out. We all know how reliable those are. Eventually, the long-rage GFS will be right. May not be this month, this year, or this decade.

Even a blind hog finds an acorn now and again.

[gboudx]

Do you have a link for the long-range Euro model? At 11 days out, the GFS has proven time and time again to be anything but reliable. I'd like to see this consistency between the two.

No, I don't.


I'm accessing the same free datasets that everyone else has access to and noticing the trends ... and, I'm also picking up some of this from other weather boards and what some pro mets are saying they are seeing from their paid subscriptions and access to the datasets.

Ok. I hope the pattern does change to one that is wetter, at the very least. It could get a little bit colder too and stop our grass from starting to green up and keep our lilies from growing, like they've started to do.

[jasons2k]

Anyone know what's up with the HGX radar? Have not seen a public info. statement on it and it's been down for days.

[Portastorm]

Anyone know what's up with the HGX radar? Have not seen a public info. statement on it and it's been down for days.

Lack of usage. Just kidding ... did you check the Houston/Galveston NWSFO page for any public notice?

[jasons2k]

Anyone know what's up with the HGX radar? Have not seen a public info. statement on it and it's been down for days.

Lack of usage. Just kidding ... did you check the Houston/Galveston NWSFO page for any public notice?

Yes, and there isn't one...usually there is which is why I'm asking if anyone here knows anything...I hope it's back online soon.

[Portastorm]

Anyone know what's up with the HGX radar? Have not seen a public info. statement on it and it's been down for days.

Lack of usage. Just kidding ... did you check the Houston/Galveston NWSFO page for any public notice?

Yes, and there isn't one...usually there is which is why I'm asking if anyone here knows anything...I hope it's back online soon.

Yeah, I see that ... just scrubbed their site and couldn't find a thing about it. I suppose you could always send an e-mail to the MIC.

[jasons2k]

Thanks for double-checking. I think I'll just use the TV sites for now.

[Tyler]

Anyone know what's up with the HGX radar? Have not seen a public info. statement on it and it's been down for days.

It is currently being upgrading, and will hopefully be ready by monday, which we'll really need it then (severe weather possibilty).

[jasons2k]

Anyone know what's up with the HGX radar? Have not seen a public info. statement on it and it's been down for days.

It is currently being upgrading, and will hopefully be ready by monday, which we'll really need it then (severe weather possibilty).

Yes, yes we do. Looks like Monday may be the first significant outbreak for us of the spring season.

Thanks for the info. I know the site in Tallahassee is also being upgraded.....they put out a statement about it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! is that thunder i hear? We are currently getting a TRUE thunderstorm here in Spring. Ahhh..drought relief. As I speak we are getting moderate to heavy rain.

[jasons2k]

wow! is that thunder i hear? We are currently getting a TRUE thunderstorm here in Spring. Ahhh..drought relief. As I speak we are getting moderate to heavy rain.

I was wondering that myself looking at the radar. We need the rain so badly. So much for the cap holding as the NWS expected.

Update: The SPC now has us in a Mesoscale Discussion. OK Extremeweatherguy, for once we can be on the same page. BRING ON THE STORMS

[Portastorm]

wow! is that thunder i hear? We are currently getting a TRUE thunderstorm here in Spring. Ahhh..drought relief. As I speak we are getting moderate to heavy rain.

I was wondering that myself looking at the radar. We need the rain so badly. So much for the cap holding as the NWS expected.

Speaking for the Austin area: "I got a rock."

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! is that thunder i hear? We are currently getting a TRUE thunderstorm here in Spring. Ahhh..drought relief. As I speak we are getting moderate to heavy rain.

I was wondering that myself looking at the radar. We need the rain so badly. So much for the cap holding as the NWS expected.

Update: The SPC now has us in a Mesoscale Discussion. OK Extremeweatherguy, for once we can be on the same page. BRING ON THE STORMS

lol. But yeah it has really increased over the last 15 minutes. It is now POURING at my house (looks like a whiteout) with frequent lightning and looking outside right now a breeze is beginning to form. It keeps getting worse by the minute...I think some small hail may even be falling!?! How unexpected!

[jasons2k]

wow! is that thunder i hear? We are currently getting a TRUE thunderstorm here in Spring. Ahhh..drought relief. As I speak we are getting moderate to heavy rain.

I was wondering that myself looking at the radar. We need the rain so badly. So much for the cap holding as the NWS expected.

Update: The SPC now has us in a Mesoscale Discussion. OK Extremeweatherguy, for once we can be on the same page. BRING ON THE STORMS

lol. But yeah it has really increased over the last 15 minutes. It is now POURING at my house (looks like a whiteout) with frequent lightning and looking outside right now a breeze is beginning to form. It keeps getting worse by the minute...I think some small hail may even be falling!?! How unexpected!

I'm using GRLevel3 radar out of KGRK (Central Texas) and it is indicating up to 1/2" hail in this cell. It looks like the core of it is going to skirt south of my house though. I'm at work right now so I can't say what it's really doing up there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! is that thunder i hear? We are currently getting a TRUE thunderstorm here in Spring. Ahhh..drought relief. As I speak we are getting moderate to heavy rain.

I was wondering that myself looking at the radar. We need the rain so badly. So much for the cap holding as the NWS expected.

Update: The SPC now has us in a Mesoscale Discussion. OK Extremeweatherguy, for once we can be on the same page. BRING ON THE STORMS

lol. But yeah it has really increased over the last 15 minutes. It is now POURING at my house (looks like a whiteout) with frequent lightning and looking outside right now a breeze is beginning to form. It keeps getting worse by the minute...I think some small hail may even be falling!?! How unexpected!

I'm using GRLevel3 radar out of KGRK (Central Texas) and it is indicating up to 1/2" hail in this cell. It looks like the core of it is going to skirt south of my house though. I'm at work right now so I can't say what it's really doing up there.

I just looked at the radar too and it seems like this storm is very isolated. If the mesoscale discussion is right though, then we may see many more storms fire up in the next few hours.

[Tyler]

I've got nothing but loud thunder, and maybe two drops of rain, thats it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is calling for a colder pattern to (still) start next week. He says that the pattern next weekend into the week of the 23rd will become much colder, especially across the plains and it will be a good pattern for snow and cold weather in the southern plains and the east. I have a gut feeling that we may be looking at some wintry weather getting close to, or reaching the houston metro by Feb. 5th. If not...I still expect at least 1 hard freeze during that time period. We shall see...

ALSO: In the shorter term...it still looks likely we will see a nice severe outbreak next Monday.

[Tyler]

Yes, monday is looking rather rough around here.

As far as the pattern goes, there is some good news. The low pressure system currently forecast to bomb over the northeast this weekend, could help to push the PV out of its stubborn location over greenland next week. This could also help slow down the currently fast and progressive pattern we are in, and maybe we can get temporary blocking and maybe a trough to stick around longer than what we have been seeing. The polar vortex is currently located in a very bad position, right over Greenland, and we need something like what will happen this weekend to alter or change the current stubborn pattern we are in. Hopefully, the PV will move into a better position for us, but that remains to be seen. The ECMWF is building some very cold air over Alaska days 6 and 7. Hopefully that can push south towards Texas in the coming weeks, but thats just speculation right now.

We're going to have to take small steps in order to change this pattern, and the low pressure bomb this weekend will help. The pattern won't just drastically change with a snap of a finger, but hopefully it will gradually become more favorable for some cold air to finally enter the lower 48. This January has just been ridiculously warm accross all of the United States. But I do think things will start to become much colder towards the end of January.

Well, thats just my .02 cents!

[gboudx]

We got a trace of rain with some lightning and thunder here tonight. Wasn't expected, so it was a pleasant surprise. Hopefully we'll get more in few days.

[jasons2k]

I got about 1/4" rain today. Not bad but can't wait until Monday.

I'm going to New York in February. I hope we'll get a nice storm up there while I'm there, I'd love to see some snow, just not here.

This winter may be a race against the clock. The average low for Houston begins to rise on January 26th (it starts December 25th at 41 degrees). Crazy how this pattern took hold and lasted right through the heart of the winter. I just hope we have a nice, active spring storm season to give us some much-needed rain.