TX Winter Wx Threat # 8--- TX Ice Storm

[Yankeegirl]

Hey, I know where Groves is!!

The great and all mighty Bon Jovi says that you are going to get some freezing rain later on today.....

[southerngale]

lol Yankee...I'm not sure even Bon Jovi can pull off this one. I'll remain the hollow circle of the donut of frozen precip...I'm preparing myself.

[Yankeegirl]

Well I am getting skeptical about all this ice and and ice storm warning effective at 6 pm... I really hope that we get something outta this!!! Once again, what is a wet bulb?

[Yankeegirl]

OK, well even if you dont get ice or snow the all mighty Bon Jovi has enough money to make you some snow and cover your yard in it....

[gboudx]

Yankeegirl, not 100% of this definition since it is wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature

[Wren]

Holy Moly, KXAN is saying up to 1/2 foot of snow out of this for Austin in the next 24 hours on some of their models.

Any of you mets here want to chime in on that?

[Yankeegirl]

I think I am going to move to Austin,,...

[Wren]

Yankeegirl. I did. I just moved to Austin from just west of the Houston area. I'm no spring chicken, but I'm as excited as a six year old to see some snow again. Grew up in Dallas, and it used to be a regular event a couple of times each winter. Left there in the late 60's.

[southerngale]

Where is the next disturbance located right now? NWS actually upped our chances of frozen precip tonight and in the morning, so I'm wondering where exactly it's coming from. Overall, radar over the state seems to be thinning just a tad. However, it does seem to be building a little bit more to the south, so is that it? Is all of that in Central and West Central Texas supposed to shift more to the SE and affect us or is there still another disturbance headed this way tonight from the Pacific?

[Yankeegirl]

I am going to call Bon Jovi is Houston doesnt get any freezing stuff and you do Kelly!!!

[Yankeegirl]

I can actually see this now pushing to the west,.... Is it just me?

Radar link

*edited by sg to shrink the super-long URL

[BreinLa]

NWS changed our forecast too, wintry mix tonight and tomorrow morning

[jeff]

Ice Storm Warning remains in effect.

Updating to include snow and 1-2 inch accumulations NW ½ of SE TX tonight.

Discussion:
Radar really starting to fill in out west with moderate snow falling and accumulating along the I-35 corridor. Strong forcing associated with next upper impulse resulting in rapid precip. development this afternoon. METAR obs. and public is reporting widespread snow and sleet mix as precip. is cooling the air column and extrapolation of radar snow bands bring that across our NW half of SE TX. Also getting reports of ice pellets in Conroe within the last hour. Accumulations of ice, snow, and sleet are nearing 1-2 inches along the I-35 corridor and spreading ENE toward our area.

Will draw a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston and show this as the change over line between freezing rain and snow. Will go with ¼ to ½ of ice accumulation north of this line and include changing to snow after midnight with 1-2 inches of accumulation.

South of this line including Harris, Fort Bend, Waller, and Montgomery counties expect freezing rain to onset this evening and continue through early Wednesday morning. Ice accumulations of ¼ of an inch is expected. Freezing rain may become mixed or change to sleet after midnight. I am not convinced the surface temp. will reach freezing across Harris County…however wet bulb temps. suggest otherwise with dewpoints well into the mid 20’s there is plenty of room for air column cooling.

Mainly exposed surfaces will accumulate ice, however if sleet develops surface roads may accumulate crusted icing while bridges and overpasses will glaze from freezing rain.

Travel N and W of Harris County looks to become hazardous this evening and remain that way through midday Wednesday. Several roads are already icing and glazed and this will worsen as the evening progresses and precip. overspreads the region. Freezing rain is already in progress N and W of Waller and Montgomery counties and should onset across Harris County by mid to late evening may be sooner if the surface temps can fall to freezing.

We shall see what transpires…radar looks quite nasty as of now…however a similar picture was noted last night and the event stayed to our N.

Looking Ahead: May begin to entertain problems for this weekend as saturated grounds and already flooding rivers may be impacted by significant rainfall. Moderate to major flooding is ongoing along the W folk of the San Jacinto River and minor flooding along the Trinity River. Rises to bankfull are expected along the lower Brazos River and San Bernard River. Hopefully by this time any threat of freezing/frozen precip. will return to its home further north and stop causing me headaches.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am getting a RAIN AND SLEET mix in NW Houston right now! Looks like this wintry mess is finally beginning!

My current temp = 34F (down 1-degree since the start of the precip. 5-10 minutes ago).

[wxman57]

I am getting a RAIN AND SLEET mix in NW Houston right now! Looks like this wintry mess is finally beginning!

My current temp = 34F (down 1-degree since the start of the precip. 5-10 minutes ago).

There's a marked increase in precipitation to our west and southwest now. As we had been saying for a while, the greatest threat for freezing/frozen precip in the Houston area would be from this afternoon through tonight. For most of the city of Houston it will amout to mostly a curiosity. Northwest of the city there could be significant icing.

[wxman57]

Updated radars. Precip increasing west of us. Though not all is hitting the ground yet, it indicates that the precip chances are going up as the models had been predicting.

[jasons2k]

I've had a few drops here but for the most part it's still dry. Looks like it's just now, finally, moving in. Oh well I guess 1/2 a storm isn't bad.

[jeff]

Wet bulb processes noted in area obs at Tomball (now below freezing) and CXO. Note dewpoints rises

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

SNOW in Dallas???

I'm not seeing any...

[Johnny]

I'm hovering between 32.7 to 32.9 here just south of Lake Conroe Dam. We had another little round of sleet that didn't last that long at all. It is now drizzling very lightly and my back deck is wet....no freezing rain yet.

Question for the mets...how close is this snow going to get to Conroe?