TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[wxman57]

The 12z Euro run looks colder than the 0z run. Check out at 168h.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

That's still only next Tuesday. The cross-polar flow is just setting up then. It's about 4-5 days later that we're looking for the real cold air to move into the U.S.

[rsdoug1981]

The 12z Euro run looks colder than the 0z run. Check out at 168h.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

That's still only next Tuesday. The cross-polar flow is just setting up then. It's about 4-5 days later that we're looking for the real cold air to move into the U.S.

...as shown by the 12z Euro for 2/1 and 2/2, right?

[JenBayles]

I still haven't recovered from the last "ice" event - can't begin to conceive of another one right now!

For the moment, I'd just like to see some sun again in between systems - getting a bit depressing here in Houston.

[wxman57]

Check out the 8-10 day Euro vs. GFS valid 12Z next Thursday. That's a COLD pattern!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

And the 240hr ECMWF 500mb flow. Wow!
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

The 12Z GFS is just plain lost as far as the cold air at the surface.

Oh, here's a link y'all might find useful. Select a state (like Texas). Continue to next page and select any city in Texas (I chose Bush Intercontinental). Select a couple parameters (I chose daily max tempa A and daily min temp B). Type in a year (1989) and then select a month (February). You'll see what this kind of outbreak can do in Houston.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onl ... rray1.html

Here's the image I got for Feb. 1989 at IAH. Now that was one quick shot of Arctic air. This pattern the ECMWF is forecasting would be a more prolonged cold.

[rsdoug1981]

Hey! Excellent tool, wxman! Much appreciated.

[Portastorm]

yeah, what a great tool. Thanks 57!

[double D]

I wonder if this is the case where the GFS is under estimating the cold air and it arrives here much sooner than what the models are forecasting...much like the last event.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I wonder if this is the case where the GFS is under estimating the cold air and it arrives here much sooner than what the models are forecasting...much like the last event.

I'd bet thats the case. The model seems to that more often than not. With the last cold spell you saw the "wiser" forecasters from the private sector and the NWS throw out the GFS.

[rsdoug1981]

I wonder if this is the case where the GFS is under estimating the cold air and it arrives here much sooner than what the models are forecasting...much like the last event.

That's possible; however, I think the GFS performed poorly last time because of the shallow depth of the air. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this air may be deeper and therefore a little easier for the models to handle...especially if it reaches the 850mb level. Is that correct?

[wxman57]

I wonder if this is the case where the GFS is under estimating the cold air and it arrives here much sooner than what the models are forecasting...much like the last event.

That's possible; however, I think the GFS performed poorly last time because of the shallow depth of the air. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this air may be deeper and therefore a little easier for the models to handle...especially if it reaches the 850mb level. Is that correct?

Exactly my line of reasoning, rsdoug1981. Thiw won't be a shallow airmass so if the GFS ever finds the cold air, it should do a better job of predicting its movement. The cold air could still arrive a little earlier than the GFS will eventually forecast, though. But I wouldn't expect the GFS to try to drive this airmass back to the north as a warm front.

[aggiecutter]

I just checked January of 78 for Texarkana. We had 16 days in January that year where the high temperature was at or below 38 degrees. That is pretty incredible.

[double D]

I just noticed that the 18z NAM is building a 1044mb(day 4) high in northern Canada while the 12z GFS only builds a 1036mb high. That is a big difference between the two models...it will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS gets a clue about the upcoming cold.

[Below N.O.]

I wonder if this is the case where the GFS is under estimating the cold air and it arrives here much sooner than what the models are forecasting...much like the last event.

That's possible; however, I think the GFS performed poorly last time because of the shallow depth of the air. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this air may be deeper and therefore a little easier for the models to handle...especially if it reaches the 850mb level. Is that correct?

Exactly my line of reasoning, rsdoug1981. Thiw won't be a shallow airmass so if the GFS ever finds the cold air, it should do a better job of predicting its movement. The cold air could still arrive a little earlier than the GFS will eventually forecast, though. But I wouldn't expect the GFS to try to drive this airmass back to the north as a warm front.

I thought initially that this air mass would tend be on the dry side. Most of them tend to roar through, bringing in much colder air and also drying us out as well.

Although if one looks at the split flow in the pac jet in this time frame the southern end charges over the Baha over Mexico and regenerates the moisture once again. as depicted by the Euro.

[Johnny]

For y'all in southeast, Texas...are y'all enjoying this nice cold rain? I can't stand this stuff.

Any updates on the arctic air for us here in the deep south?

[Below N.O.]

For y'all in southeast, Texas...are y'all enjoying this nice cold rain? I can't stand this stuff.

Any updates on the arctic air for us here in the deep south?

Cantore on the Weather Channel said last night that the Arctic air would not reach the "DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Just who that includes???? I have no idea.

[Portastorm]

For y'all in southeast, Texas...are y'all enjoying this nice cold rain? I can't stand this stuff.

Any updates on the arctic air for us here in the deep south?

Cantore on the Weather Channel said last night that the Arctic air would not reach the "DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Just who that includes???? I have no idea.

Reliable Euro operational still on board for massive Arctic outbreak later next week. As Wxman57 pointed out earlier, 500 mb flow in GFS operational runs also confirm the same.

I'd say by this weekend we'll have a good idea on timing. It's coming folks ... question is not "if" now but "when."

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

For y'all in southeast, Texas...are y'all enjoying this nice cold rain? I can't stand this stuff.

Any updates on the arctic air for us here in the deep south?

Cantore on the Weather Channel said last night that the Arctic air would not reach the "DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Just who that includes???? I have no idea.

Well that sums it up for me. I'll make sure all of my cold weather gear is ready to go then.

[gboudx]

"DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Maybe he's referring to a line from Morgan City to Buras.

[jasons2k]

I really hope something like the '89 image above doesn't come into fruition. I've about had enough winter for me.

[wxman57]

Cantore on the Weather Channel said last night that the Arctic air would not reach the "DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Just who that includes???? I have no idea.

I didn't see Cantore's report, but I suspect he was talking about the current Arctic airmass moving into New England and not 8-10 days from now.