Texas Winter 2012-2013

[aggiecutter]

Precip loop from the 0z GFS.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi? ... ield=ptype

[Ntxw]

The reason why this storm is able to be so far reaching and copious amounts of moisture is pretty clear. Many sources from the Pacific and the wide open gulf. That string of very -SOI did a good job

[TrekkerCC]

The Rapid Refresh model (the nowcast/short range model) is starting to get within range of the event. It appears like the Rapid Refresh model is projecting the upper level low to dig in deeper (and the resulting surface low TROWAL) hits NTX straight on. The special SPC WRF model runs also seem to suggest the TROWAL will impact NTX as well: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/and http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/. I expect we might have an interesting event in NTX tomorrow if the trends continue, if the upper level low moves as some of these models suggest.

[coltsfan90]

I hope Abilene can get at least a little snow out of this.

[Ntxw]

The axis of the trowal on most of the models, and especially the RAP is over the I-20 corridor. Question here is not if there will be precip, there will be lots but how fast does the 850 0c line progress? This feature has tremendous convective bands, 3+ inch per hour rates in some locales and how much does dynamic cooling play a role? Being off on the cold air could mean less than an inch or 5+ easily

[HockeyTx82]

Between 10pm and 11pm I was driving back from Garland to Corinth and it was already starting to rain a little on 190 GBTP and I 35. Not sure if that means anything, bust just adding to the conversation.

[DonWrk]

Ready to see what the euro shows.

[Ntxw]

Latest RAP

[Peanut432]

The Norman, AMA, and Lubbock AFD have all been updated and all seem to think the storm is definitely going farther south. Lubbock even upped my snow totals around Childress to 2-4in this last update with some higher amounts possible. I'm not sure what the NWS is seeing as none of the models twisterdata.com displays have anything over an inch for the southern panhandle and Northern rolling plains.

[Ntxw]

Ready to see what the euro shows.

The Euro didn't change much, but it's getting harder to know because of the 3 hour intervals. Not enough detailed data available free to dissect like the short range models. It does look like it extended the snow line further south.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

See the radar echos in West Texas at the end of the run? Interesting. Especially with all of the moisture streaming into the Southwest from the Pacific.

[paulb]

We currently have some thunder showers out here in wise county

[serenata09]

I'm driving from San Antonio to Dallas tomorrow morning. How does the drive look weather wise?

[Ntxw]

I'm driving from San Antonio to Dallas tomorrow morning. How does the drive look weather wise?

Rain and thunderstorms, once you get to Dallas the weather might be turning to frozen type. If you have to drive try to leave as early as possible.

[South Texas Storms]

Ready to see what the euro shows.

The Euro didn't change much, but it's getting harder to know because of the 3 hour intervals. Not enough detailed data available free to dissect like the short range models. It does look like it extended the snow line further south.

The 0z Euro looks pretty snowy for DFW. I have the accuwxpro text output for it and here is what it shows:

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
TUE 00Z 25-DEC 7.8 12.2 1012 46 24 0.00 564 555
TUE 06Z 25-DEC 6.1 9.2 1011 61 63 0.01 561 552
TUE 12Z 25-DEC 6.7 5.5 1007 88 83 0.53 556 550
TUE 18Z 25-DEC 7.3 1.4 1008 91 79 0.27 548 542
WED 00Z 26-DEC -1.4 -3.5 1017 73 95 0.24 550 537
WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.7 0.1 1022 54 59 0.01 555 538
WED 12Z 26-DEC -3.8 1.7 1024 47 25 0.00 562 543

[Rgv20]

Merry Christmas Storm2k Family!! NWS in Brownsville having a little fun with their late evening discussion..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1048 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

.UPDATE...JUST BRIEFED SANTA/S LITTLE HELPER ABOARD SANTA-1 AS IT
CROSSED RHODE ISLAND AT 0445Z. THE MISSION TO DELIVER PRESENTS TO
GOOD BOYS AND GIRLS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS A GO!! JUST A FEW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUT OTHER THAN THAT IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH FLYING. ANY KIDS
STILL AWAKE SHOULD BE BED-DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DID GET A
REPORT THAT SANTA WAS CHILLY UP IN THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
BOY IS SANTA GOING TO BE SURPRISED WHEN HE GETS DOWN INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS!! MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!!

[e2drummer]

Cloud-to-ground lightning is really, really nasty here in Dallas right now. Among the worst I've experienced my entire life. Multiple strikes <1 mile from my location. Also have reports of hail in the metroplex on twitter. Certainly an interesting start to this storm system. Wow.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Awakened by thunder and lightning in DFW. Game on!

[jerryh421]

Had hail here in montgomery county just north of Houston about an hour ago with the storms that came through. Ready for that cold air to get here though!

[MSUDawg]

Awakened by thunder and lightning in DFW. Game on!

It's really coming down hard now right south of airport and a good mix of sleet /grauple mixing in.

Brrr cold rain...