Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Yeah it could get bad if they do receive that much rain. 3-5" causes flooding here and we're flat. On hills it rushes down with more speed, just look at Austin and the hill country when it floods...similar topography. They are also semi-arid and mediterranean climate so the soil won't be able to soak it as quickly.

1-2" rainstorm is enough to cause trouble

[dhweather]

My only wish for this winter is for YOU to get some snow Porta!! No freezing drizzle, no sleet, POWDER, at least enough to cover everything and make it look like a winter wonderland. You have endured too many near misses and busts by models, its past time for you to reap the benefits!!

[dhweather]

True

0z GFS went the way of big HP, PV anomaly midwest split. Much bigger high than the 18z run. Probably 10 more different solutions in the next 5 days . I wonder when the media is going to start the "Polar Vortex" coming down frenzy

Love the meandering 5h block between Alaska and Yukon. Rock and lock. -EPO sustained. Why not drive the cold front down the Gulf of Mexico. If the models are correct we will be entering a severe blocking episode over the Polar regions.


0z GFS

http://i68.tinypic.com/2dsz7m.png

Euro earlier today

http://i64.tinypic.com/2v0hc47.png

Ugh, not this again. Roker will start up with his winter hurricane bit, it will be crazy.

[dhweather]

I appear to be losing my grasp on the thermostat. Not liking the latest model runs at all. OK, have your winter, but I'm taking control after March (or maybe April...)!

I'm in your camp most of the time, I'm not super fond of really cold weather. But every one of us has that little kid in us that loves to see wintry precip, and you have to have a lot of cold air to get it, so I'll take it. The other plus is that temps in the 20's eliminates bugs. There was a mosquito in the house a couple of nights ago, had to track it down and kill it, was feasting on my son, bit his face twice, and 6-7 spots on his arms over a 2-3 night stretch.

[Portastorm]

My only wish for this winter is for YOU to get some snow Porta!! No freezing drizzle, no sleet, POWDER, at least enough to cover everything and make it look like a winter wonderland. You have endured too many near misses and busts by models, its past time for you to reap the benefits!!

I don't care what they say dhweather, I say you're a good man!

Personally I enjoy the cold as a break from our usual summer heat, but it doesn't take long for me to get tired of it (the cold) unless it involves some sort of "wintry mischief." Otherwise like you said in another post and what wxman57 has said, why be cold if you're not going to snow?! At this point though I just want El Nino to fill up our lakes and aquifers as much as possible until the next inevitable drought returns.

I have to admit that all of the models now, both operational and ensembles, are showing a very cold pattern for us come mid month. Here's hoping the subtropical jetstream is near us and remains busy.

[Snowman67]

I like to look at what is happening (and forecasted to happen) upstream. Here is a snippet from the forecast discussion out of the Bismark, ND NWS office alluding to the upcoming pattern shift. Hopefully for us winter weather lovers in Texas, that colder air will make it down here.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE WELL DEFINED REX BLOCK ACROSS THE
WESTERN US THAT HAS GIVEN THE REGION QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND BE REPLACED WITH A COLD H500 TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
RESULT WILL BE A PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL ALLOW COLDER H850 FLOW
TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN
THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD (A BIT BEYOND THIS EXTENDED) MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

[hriverajr]

Lets hope the latest European run is an anomaly, makes me worry about that push to the east with the cold air. Also the question arises if we get the really cold air, where are we going to get our moisture from? Yes a noisy subtropical jet can provide some spritzes here and there, but a well defined disturbance would be nice.

[Snowman67]

Lets hope the latest European run is an anomaly, makes me worry about that push to the east with the cold air. Also the question arises if we get the really cold air, where are we going to get our moisture from? Yes a noisy subtropical jet can provide some spritzes here and there, but a well defined disturbance would be nice.

Looks like the 12Z GFS is also shunting the cold air to east as well. Still a long ways out. I'm sure the models will flip several more times...

[gatorcane]

Look at this arctic air building up in Canada and over the northern United States on the 12Z GFS run - it's long-range but I don't recall seeing the teal color showing up on this map this far south (-40Fs over SW Canada)!

[Ntxw]

I like the storm on the 10th's potential as a gulf cruiser. I want to see better moisture return before it and a good HP above it before all in. Also bundle the 5h vorticity a little more

[hriverajr]

Lets hope the latest European run is an anomaly, makes me worry about that push to the east with the cold air. Also the question arises if we get the really cold air, where are we going to get our moisture from? Yes a noisy subtropical jet can provide some spritzes here and there, but a well defined disturbance would be nice.

Looks like the 12Z GFS is also shunting the cold air to east as well. Still a long ways out. I'm sure the models will flip several more times...

Yea they will flip, and flip and flip. . 12Z actually has a bit of a weaker east coast system, actually it holds up the cold air in western Canada instead of sweeping it south and east. This entire winter troughs have been based mostly in the west. I wonder if we will actually have a total flip where the mean trough position ends up over the eastern United States.

[gatorcane]

Yep BIG change in the 12Z GFS run which ejects this cold air to the EAST and not southward....all in the long-range as the model is clearly struggling with what will happen with this arctic air.

06Z and 12Z GFS comparison:

06Z:


12Z:

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Yep BIG change in the 12Z GFS run which ejects this cold air to the EAST and not southward....all in the long-range as the model is clearly struggling with what will happen with this arctic air.

What? The cold air may miss Texas!!?? Well, my hand remains partly on the thermostat...

Don't count your Arctic air until it's hatched (or something like that).

[orangeblood]

GFS continues to spit out wild swings from run to run. Canadian has been the most consistent, see no reason to discount its solution for this upcoming Arctic Outbreak

[perk]

orangeblood i totally agree,the CMC has been pretty consistent while the GFS has been the very opposite.

[EnnisTx]

I know it's normal for the models to flip flop, but I'm hoping for some cold and snow in the upcoming weeks! Let's hope they give us a taste of both.....

[EnnisTx]

Anyone see the possible Winter Weather next weekend for North Texas?

[hriverajr]

The question now is how far south will the Arctic air penetrate. Many of the models are showing a trend of cold air being held up.

[Ntxw]

The question now is how far south will the Arctic air penetrate. Many of the models are showing a trend of cold air being held up.

My instincts tell me everything with plow southward. EPO is negative and may reach 3 SD's below normal That's a solid signal for Arctic attack. It's nothing to joke about the blocking that is going to occur up there. We just saw the same kind of idea happen in the Kara Sea and the intense cold that blasted the Black sea region below. There are very few cases where you will see Alaska/Yukon block sit like that. Nearly all of them plunged the lower 48 into a deep freeze.

[wxman57]

Anyone see the possible Winter Weather next weekend for North Texas?

Not next weekend. No really cold air around. Cold air comes down the week after.