Texas Winter 2022-2023

[wxman57]

12z CMC very cold, but extremely dry.

Something wrong with Canadian, too. Has Houston at 15F Friday morning but DFW area mid 20s. That 15F at 6am Fri is followed by 45F at noon. Wonky.

[rwfromkansas]

Need the Euro to side with Ukmet.

https://i.imgur.com/5HHwpIh.png

That looks like some of the early runs like the 12z last Saturday GFS I saved that pushed that dang ridge off the coast. Make it happen, weather gods.

[orangeblood]

Contrary to what the Heat Miser is touting, this potential Arctic Outbreak is forecasting some pretty rare territory....15-20 Deg F below normal as a GEFS Mean for a week straight over a good portion of Texas. And keep in mind this is a mean, some iterations are going much lower than this. For perspective, the Feb 2021 Outbreak was 25 Deg F below normal for 12 days

[TheProfessor]

Lol this Ukie run would bury me. Still think we see a track south of this tho. Don't think I'll get lucky with a sharp cutter like that.

[txtwister78]

Looks like the 12z Euro decided to go back to flip flop land compared to its 0z run. Op's continuing to show this is an ensemble watch party for now (probably until the weekend). But man, it is really cranking that western ridge. PNA maximus.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 12z Euro decided to go back to flip flop land compared to its 0z run. Op's continuing to show this is an ensemble watch party for now (probably until the weekend). But man, it is really cranking that western ridge. PNA maximus.

Benefit on this run though we get PAC energy with cold in place, surprise. But agreed is a mess.

[Iceresistance]

Lol this Ukie run would bury me. Still think we see a track south of this tho. Don't think I'll get lucky with a sharp cutter like that.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/tXRNjcf/ukie-JPG-4446a683a96e680be1b33f0a01343606-jpeg.jpg [/url]

Do you have the snowfall totals?

[TheProfessor]

Lol this Ukie run would bury me. Still think we see a track south of this tho. Don't think I'll get lucky with a sharp cutter like that.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/tXRNjcf/ukie-JPG-4446a683a96e680be1b33f0a01343606-jpeg.jpg [/url]

Do you have the snowfall totals?

Nope I don't have a sub to that site so I'm not even sure it produces a snowfall map out that far.

[wxman57]

Note that "normal" for mid-December isn't as cold as normal for February. I'm still saying that there is currently no really cold air in northern Canada, and no big high center. It's all a model forecast for now. Let's see what develops up north by late this weekend. New models are all warmer (less cold) than overnight runs. Some not so believable. 12Z Canadian has a low of 15F in Houston Friday (25 in DFW). Its ensemble run has 22F with mid teens DFW. Canadian is definitely the cold outlier for lows, but it's the warm outlier for highs. Odd.

[Ntxw]

Note that "normal" for mid-December isn't as cold as normal for February. I'm still saying that there is currently no really cold air in northern Canada, and no big high center. It's all a model forecast for now. Let's see what develops up north by late this weekend. New models are all warmer (less cold) than overnight runs. Some not so believable. 12Z Canadian has a low of 15F in Houston Friday (25 in DFW). Its ensemble run has 22F with mid teens DFW. Canadian is definitely the cold outlier for lows, but it's the warm outlier for highs. Odd.

While I agree with your thoughts on waiting to see the players on the field, normal for late December is colder than anything normal in February as far as DFW goes. And with Sun angle at it's lowest there is less resistance on the diurnals.

Now later in the season the atmosphere is much more mature with the winter season agree there.

[wxman57]

Latest 12Z models, with ensembles, for central Houston area. Wacky 15F Friday from the Canadian, with 25 in Dallas at that time. Wackier 45 for the high 6 hrs later.

[Snowman67]

Ahh yes, we’ve arrived at the timeframe before a potential winter weather event when a certain beloved heat miser starts telling everyone why it’s not going to happen.

Get your popcorn, the battle has begun!

Not a cold denier, but this isn't a multi-day sub-freezing event for Houston. Nothing remotely like 1983 or 1989. Just a hard freeze in Houston, most likely.

Teens in Houston would be pretty rare though. I've noticed your predictions over last week have continued to trend colder

[wxman57]

Note that "normal" for mid-December isn't as cold as normal for February. I'm still saying that there is currently no really cold air in northern Canada, and no big high center. It's all a model forecast for now. Let's see what develops up north by late this weekend. New models are all warmer (less cold) than overnight runs. Some not so believable. 12Z Canadian has a low of 15F in Houston Friday (25 in DFW). Its ensemble run has 22F with mid teens DFW. Canadian is definitely the cold outlier for lows, but it's the warm outlier for highs. Odd.

While I agree with your thoughts on waiting to see the players on the field, normal for late December is colder than anything normal in February as far as DFW goes. And with Sun angle at it's lowest there is less resistance on the diurnals.

Now later in the season the atmosphere is much more mature with the winter season agree there.

Just checked Houston climo. Normal for Christmas is 43-63. Normal in Jan 44-64, normal in Feb is 46-66. I guess there is a slight difference (warmer) for Jan/Feb. Still, 25F below normal for a high is only upper 30s.

[Ntxw]

Note that "normal" for mid-December isn't as cold as normal for February. I'm still saying that there is currently no really cold air in northern Canada, and no big high center. It's all a model forecast for now. Let's see what develops up north by late this weekend. New models are all warmer (less cold) than overnight runs. Some not so believable. 12Z Canadian has a low of 15F in Houston Friday (25 in DFW). Its ensemble run has 22F with mid teens DFW. Canadian is definitely the cold outlier for lows, but it's the warm outlier for highs. Odd.

While I agree with your thoughts on waiting to see the players on the field, normal for late December is colder than anything normal in February as far as DFW goes. And with Sun angle at it's lowest there is less resistance on the diurnals.

Now later in the season the atmosphere is much more mature with the winter season agree there.

Just checked Houston climo. Normal for Christmas is 43-63. Normal in Jan 44-64, normal in Feb is 46-66. I guess there is a slight difference (warmer) for Jan/Feb. Still, 25F below normal for a high is only upper 30s.

For alter ego highs upper 30s is quite invigorating .

[Ntxw]

Post Christmas the models show continued -AO. Aleutian low does shut off the brutal cold though, however 500mb favors continued chill and potential storminess. +PNA likes to dominate the SE US in below normal and east coast, we're on the back edge of that. For winter wx you'd want to see something out of the STJ sneak through.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Post Christmas the models show continued -AO. Aleutian low does shut off the brutal cold though, however 500mb favors continued chill and potential storminess. +PNA likes to dominate the SE US in below normal and east coast, we're on the back edge of that. For winter wx you'd want to see something out of the STJ sneak through.

Classic Nino pattern

[Tireman4]

While I agree with your thoughts on waiting to see the players on the field, normal for late December is colder than anything normal in February as far as DFW goes. And with Sun angle at it's lowest there is less resistance on the diurnals.

Now later in the season the atmosphere is much more mature with the winter season agree there.

Just checked Houston climo. Normal for Christmas is 43-63. Normal in Jan 44-64, normal in Feb is 46-66. I guess there is a slight difference (warmer) for Jan/Feb. Still, 25F below normal for a high is only upper 30s.

For alter ego highs upper 30s is quite invigorating .

Dont worry, his alter ego will come back and completely flabbergast the newbies..LOL..It is like scene from the Weird and Weirder..LOL

[Texas Snowman]

Ahh yes, we’ve arrived at the timeframe before a potential winter weather event when a certain beloved heat miser starts telling everyone why it’s not going to happen.

Get your popcorn, the battle has begun!

Not a cold denier, but this isn't a multi-day sub-freezing event for Houston. Nothing remotely like 1983 or 1989. Just a hard freeze in Houston, most likely.

Just a little good natured fun Wxman57, nobody we love and respect more than you on this board.

Except for that wall, of course. And the fact that you’re right far too often on this Texas Winter Weather thread each year!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Down the middle with a 1043 High into Texas

[Tireman4]

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp_anom-1671105600-1671688800-1671775200-40.gif.1c5c41ea89c252706ce6b6840eb99bcd.gif

Down the middle with a 1043 High into Texas

If If If...this verifies...this will hurt...LOL